Federico Torrielli

Federico Torrielli, Peter Schneider-Kamp, Lukas Galke Poech

Activation oracles aim to make the activations of other models legible to humans and yield promising results compared to white-box interpretability techniques. However, uncertainty quantification (UQ) for the natural-language outputs of such activation oracles is so far understudied. Here, we investigate 6 different methods for estimating the confidence of activation oracles and evaluate how well-calibrated their confidence scores are. Our experiments on 6,000 samples per oracle (varying verbalizer and context prompts) reveal that bootstrap mode frequency is the best-calibrated method among those tested (ECE 5.7% vs. 25.5% for the answer-word log-probability on Qwen3-8B; 10.3% vs. 13.1% on Qwen3.6-27B), and that the log-prob baseline can serve as a fast triage signal at a fraction of the cost. Code and the patched trainer are available at https://github.com/federicotorrielli/probabilistic_activation_oracles.

Stine Lyngsø Beltoft, William Brach, Federico Torrielli et al.

Monitoring autonomous language model agents currently relies mostly on surface behavior. But what happens when agent populations invent new languages with the goal of avoiding human oversight. Here, we study the emergent languages on Moltbook. For this, we build upon the Moltbook Files dataset and apply a two-stage approach consisting of a rule-based heuristic (about 6000 matches) followed by zero-shot classification (518 kept). The resulting categories include token efficiency (166), new natural languages (106), and oversight evasion (59). We conduct both quantitative and qualitative analyses. Our results show that posts proposing new languages for avoiding oversight are judged by DeepSeek-3.2 as being less aligned than the other categories and that all languages can be learned by other language models in-context merely from a description of the language. Moreover, manually studying exemplary cases reveals surprisingly sophisticated steganographic protocols like embedding hidden messages in natural language. Although we cannot be certain about the extent of autonomy in ideation of these languages, our results add up to the evidence that monitoring surface behavior may soon be insufficient for retaining control over agent populations.

William Brach, Federico Torrielli, Stine Lyngsø Beltoft et al.

Moltbook is a Reddit-like platform where OpenClaw agents post, comment, and vote at scale - a so far unprecedented incident that comes with serious safety concerns. With the aim of studying emergent behavior in populations, we release the Moltbook Files, a dataset of 232k posts and 2.2M comments covering the platform's first 12 days, processed through a pipeline to identify and remove Personally-Identifiable Information (PII). We analyze community structure, authorship, lexical properties, sentiment, topics, semantic geometry, and comment interaction. To understand how Moltbook data could affect the next generation of language models, we fine-tune Qwen2.5-14B-Instruct on Moltbook Files with three adaptation levels. Our PII pipeline reveals that agents post API keys, passwords, BIP39 seed phrases on Moltbook, a publicly indexed platform. The overall sentiment is mostly neutral and mildly positive (66.6% neutral, 19.5% positive) and shows a tendency for self-referential linking. We find that fine-tuning on Moltbook data reduces truthfulness from 0.366 to 0.187. However, a model fine-tuned on a size-matched Reddit dataset produces a comparable decrease. Moltbook thus seems to be more of a harmless slopocalypse. However, tail risks remain, including agent affordances, contamination of future crawls through self-links, and potential transfer of traits to the next generation of language models. More broadly, our findings highlight the importance of control baselines in emergent misalignment evaluations.