Jie Qiao

Ruichu Cai, Yuxuan Zhu, Xuexin Chen et al.

The explainability of Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) is critical to various GNN applications, yet it remains a significant challenge. A convincing explanation should be both necessary and sufficient simultaneously. However, existing GNN explaining approaches focus on only one of the two aspects, necessity or sufficiency, or a heuristic trade-off between the two. Theoretically, the Probability of Necessity and Sufficiency (PNS) holds the potential to identify the most necessary and sufficient explanation since it can mathematically quantify the necessity and sufficiency of an explanation. Nevertheless, the difficulty of obtaining PNS due to non-monotonicity and the challenge of counterfactual estimation limit its wide use. To address the non-identifiability of PNS, we resort to a lower bound of PNS that can be optimized via counterfactual estimation, and propose a framework of Necessary and Sufficient Explanation for GNN (NSEG) via optimizing that lower bound. Specifically, we depict the GNN as a structural causal model (SCM), and estimate the probability of counterfactual via the intervention under the SCM. Additionally, we leverage continuous masks with a sampling strategy to optimize the lower bound to enhance the scalability. Empirical results demonstrate that NSEG outperforms state-of-the-art methods, consistently generating the most necessary and sufficient explanations.

Yuequn Liu, Ruichu Cai, Wei Chen et al.

Learning Granger causality from event sequences is a challenging but essential task across various applications. Most existing methods rely on the assumption that event sequences are independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.). However, this i.i.d. assumption is often violated due to the inherent dependencies among the event sequences. Fortunately, in practice, we find these dependencies can be modeled by a topological network, suggesting a potential solution to the non-i.i.d. problem by introducing the prior topological network into Granger causal discovery. This observation prompts us to tackle two ensuing challenges: 1) how to model the event sequences while incorporating both the prior topological network and the latent Granger causal structure, and 2) how to learn the Granger causal structure. To this end, we devise a unified topological neural Poisson auto-regressive model with two processes. In the generation process, we employ a variant of the neural Poisson process to model the event sequences, considering influences from both the topological network and the Granger causal structure. In the inference process, we formulate an amortized inference algorithm to infer the latent Granger causal structure. We encapsulate these two processes within a unified likelihood function, providing an end-to-end framework for this task. Experiments on simulated and real-world data demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

Ruichu Cai, Siyang Huang, Jie Qiao et al.

As a key component to intuitive cognition and reasoning solutions in human intelligence, causal knowledge provides great potential for reinforcement learning (RL) agents' interpretability towards decision-making by helping reduce the searching space. However, there is still a considerable gap in discovering and incorporating causality into RL, which hinders the rapid development of causal RL. In this paper, we consider explicitly modeling the generation process of states with the causal graphical model, based on which we augment the policy. We formulate the causal structure updating into the RL interaction process with active intervention learning of the environment. To optimize the derived objective, we propose a framework with theoretical performance guarantees that alternates between two steps: using interventions for causal structure learning during exploration and using the learned causal structure for policy guidance during exploitation. Due to the lack of public benchmarks that allow direct intervention in the state space, we design the root cause localization task in our simulated fault alarm environment and then empirically show the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method against state-of-the-art baselines. Theoretical analysis shows that our performance improvement attributes to the virtuous cycle of causal-guided policy learning and causal structure learning, which aligns with our experimental results. Codes are available at https://github.com/DMIRLAB-Group/FaultAlarm_RL.

Jie Qiao, Zhengming Chen, Jianhua Yu et al.

Missing data are an unavoidable complication frequently encountered in many causal discovery tasks. When a missing process depends on the missing values themselves (known as self-masking missingness), the recovery of the joint distribution becomes unattainable, and detecting the presence of such self-masking missingness remains a perplexing challenge. Consequently, due to the inability to reconstruct the original distribution and to discern the underlying missingness mechanism, simply applying existing causal discovery methods would lead to wrong conclusions. In this work, we found that the recent advances additive noise model has the potential for learning causal structure under the existence of the self-masking missingness. With this observation, we aim to investigate the identification problem of learning causal structure from missing data under an additive noise model with different missingness mechanisms, where the `no self-masking missingness' assumption can be eliminated appropriately. Specifically, we first elegantly extend the scope of identifiability of causal skeleton to the case with weak self-masking missingness (i.e., no other variable could be the cause of self-masking indicators except itself). We further provide the sufficient and necessary identification conditions of the causal direction under additive noise model and show that the causal structure can be identified up to an IN-equivalent pattern. We finally propose a practical algorithm based on the above theoretical results on learning the causal skeleton and causal direction. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real data demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed algorithms.

Ruichu Cai, Yuxuan Zhu, Jie Qiao et al.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have been demonstrated to be vulnerable to well-crafted \emph{adversarial examples}, which are generated through either well-conceived $\mathcal{L}_p$-norm restricted or unrestricted attacks. Nevertheless, the majority of those approaches assume that adversaries can modify any features as they wish, and neglect the causal generating process of the data, which is unreasonable and unpractical. For instance, a modification in income would inevitably impact features like the debt-to-income ratio within a banking system. By considering the underappreciated causal generating process, first, we pinpoint the source of the vulnerability of DNNs via the lens of causality, then give theoretical results to answer \emph{where to attack}. Second, considering the consequences of the attack interventions on the current state of the examples to generate more realistic adversarial examples, we propose CADE, a framework that can generate \textbf{C}ounterfactual \textbf{AD}versarial \textbf{E}xamples to answer \emph{how to attack}. The empirical results demonstrate CADE's effectiveness, as evidenced by its competitive performance across diverse attack scenarios, including white-box, transfer-based, and random intervention attacks.

Jie Qiao, Yu Xiang, Zhengming Chen et al.

Count data naturally arise in many fields, such as finance, neuroscience, and epidemiology, and discovering causal structure among count data is a crucial task in various scientific and industrial scenarios. One of the most common characteristics of count data is the inherent branching structure described by a binomial thinning operator and an independent Poisson distribution that captures both branching and noise. For instance, in a population count scenario, mortality and immigration contribute to the count, where survival follows a Bernoulli distribution, and immigration follows a Poisson distribution. However, causal discovery from such data is challenging due to the non-identifiability issue: a single causal pair is Markov equivalent, i.e., $X\rightarrow Y$ and $Y\rightarrow X$ are distributed equivalent. Fortunately, in this work, we found that the causal order from $X$ to its child $Y$ is identifiable if $X$ is a root vertex and has at least two directed paths to $Y$, or the ancestor of $X$ with the most directed path to $X$ has a directed path to $Y$ without passing $X$. Specifically, we propose a Poisson Branching Structure Causal Model (PB-SCM) and perform a path analysis on PB-SCM using high-order cumulants. Theoretical results establish the connection between the path and cumulant and demonstrate that the path information can be obtained from the cumulant. With the path information, causal order is identifiable under some graphical conditions. A practical algorithm for learning causal structure under PB-SCM is proposed and the experiments demonstrate and verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Ruichu Cai, Xi Chen, Jie Qiao et al.

Decision making under abnormal conditions is a critical process that involves evaluating the current state and determining the optimal action to restore the system to a normal state at an acceptable cost. However, in such scenarios, existing decision-making frameworks highly rely on reinforcement learning or root cause analysis, resulting in them frequently neglecting the cost of the actions or failing to incorporate causal mechanisms adequately. By relaxing the existing causal decision framework to solve the necessary cause, we propose a minimum-cost causal decision (MiCCD) framework via counterfactual reasoning to address the above challenges. Emphasis is placed on making counterfactual reasoning processes identifiable in the presence of a large amount of mixed anomaly data, as well as finding the optimal intervention state in a continuous decision space. Specifically, it formulates a surrogate model based on causal graphs, using abnormal pattern clustering labels as supervisory signals. This enables the approximation of the structural causal model among the variables and lays a foundation for identifiable counterfactual reasoning. With the causal structure approximated, we then established an optimization model based on counterfactual estimation. The Sequential Least Squares Programming (SLSQP) algorithm is further employed to optimize intervention strategies while taking costs into account. Experimental evaluations on both synthetic and real-world datasets reveal that MiCCD outperforms conventional methods across multiple metrics, including F1-score, cost efficiency, and ranking quality(nDCG@k values), thus validating its efficacy and broad applicability.

Weilin Chen, Ruichu Cai, Jie Qiao et al.

Estimating causal effects under networked interference from observational data is a crucial yet challenging problem. Most existing methods mainly rely on the networked unconfoundedness assumption, which guarantees the identification of networked effects. However, this assumption is often violated due to the latent confounders inherent in observational data, thereby hindering the identification of networked effects. To address this issue, we leverage the rich interaction patterns between units in networks, which provide valuable information for recovering these latent confounders. Building on this insight, we develop a confounder recovery framework that explicitly characterizes three categories of latent confounders in networked settings: those affecting only the unit, those affecting only the unit's neighbors, and those influencing both. Based on this framework, we design a networked effect estimator using identifiable representation learning techniques. From a theoretical standpoint, we prove the identifiability of all three types of latent confounders and, by leveraging the recovered confounders, establish a formal identification result for networked effects. Extensive experiments validate our theoretical findings and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Feng Zhou, Quyu Kong, Jie Qiao et al.

Temporal point processes (TPPs) are stochastic process models used to characterize event sequences occurring in continuous time. Traditional statistical TPPs have a long-standing history, with numerous models proposed and successfully applied across diverse domains. In recent years, advances in deep learning have spurred the development of neural TPPs, enabling greater flexibility and expressiveness in capturing complex temporal dynamics. The emergence of large language models (LLMs) has further sparked excitement, offering new possibilities for modeling and analyzing event sequences by leveraging their rich contextual understanding. This survey presents a comprehensive review of recent research on TPPs from three perspectives: Bayesian, deep learning, and LLM approaches. We begin with a review of the fundamental concepts of TPPs, followed by an in-depth discussion of model design and parameter estimation techniques in these three frameworks. We also revisit classic application areas of TPPs to highlight their practical relevance. Finally, we outline challenges and promising directions for future research.

Zhengming Chen, Ruichu Cai, Feng Xie et al.

Unobserved discrete data are ubiquitous in many scientific disciplines, and how to learn the causal structure of these latent variables is crucial for uncovering data patterns. Most studies focus on the linear latent variable model or impose strict constraints on latent structures, which fail to address cases in discrete data involving non-linear relationships or complex latent structures. To achieve this, we explore a tensor rank condition on contingency tables for an observed variable set $\mathbf{X}_p$, showing that the rank is determined by the minimum support of a specific conditional set (not necessary in $\mathbf{X}_p$) that d-separates all variables in $\mathbf{X}_p$. By this, one can locate the latent variable through probing the rank on different observed variables set, and further identify the latent causal structure under some structure assumptions. We present the corresponding identification algorithm and conduct simulated experiments to verify the effectiveness of our method. In general, our results elegantly extend the identification boundary for causal discovery with discrete latent variables and expand the application scope of causal discovery with latent variables.

Weilin Chen, Ruichu Cai, Zeqin Yang et al.

Causal effect estimation under networked interference is an important but challenging problem. Available parametric methods are limited in their model space, while previous semiparametric methods, e.g., leveraging neural networks to fit only one single nuisance function, may still encounter misspecification problems under networked interference without appropriate assumptions on the data generation process. To mitigate bias stemming from misspecification, we propose a novel doubly robust causal effect estimator under networked interference, by adapting the targeted learning technique to the training of neural networks. Specifically, we generalize the targeted learning technique into the networked interference setting and establish the condition under which an estimator achieves double robustness. Based on the condition, we devise an end-to-end causal effect estimator by transforming the identified theoretical condition into a targeted loss. Moreover, we provide a theoretical analysis of our designed estimator, revealing a faster convergence rate compared to a single nuisance model. Extensive experimental results on two real-world networks with semisynthetic data demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed estimators.

Jie Qiao, Ruichu Cai, Siyu Wu et al.

Learning causal structure among event types from discrete-time event sequences is a particularly important but challenging task. Existing methods, such as the multivariate Hawkes processes based methods, mostly boil down to learning the so-called Granger causality which assumes that the cause event happens strictly prior to its effect event. Such an assumption is often untenable beyond applications, especially when dealing with discrete-time event sequences in low-resolution; and typical discrete Hawkes processes mainly suffer from identifiability issues raised by the instantaneous effect, i.e., the causal relationship that occurred simultaneously due to the low-resolution data will not be captured by Granger causality. In this work, we propose Structure Hawkes Processes (SHPs) that leverage the instantaneous effect for learning the causal structure among events type in discrete-time event sequence. The proposed method is featured with the minorization-maximization of the likelihood function and a sparse optimization scheme. Theoretical results show that the instantaneous effect is a blessing rather than a curse, and the causal structure is identifiable under the existence of the instantaneous effect. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Ruichu Cai, Fengzhu Wu, Zijian Li et al.

The recommendation system, relying on historical observational data to model the complex relationships among the users and items, has achieved great success in real-world applications. Selection bias is one of the most important issues of the existing observational data based approaches, which is actually caused by multiple types of unobserved exposure strategies (e.g. promotions and holiday effects). Though various methods have been proposed to address this problem, they are mainly relying on the implicit debiasing techniques but not explicitly modeling the unobserved exposure strategies. By explicitly Reconstructing Exposure STrategies (REST in short), we formalize the recommendation problem as the counterfactual reasoning and propose the debiased social recommendation method. In REST, we assume that the exposure of an item is controlled by the latent exposure strategies, the user, and the item. Based on the above generation process, we first provide the theoretical guarantee of our method via identification analysis. Second, we employ a variational auto-encoder to reconstruct the latent exposure strategies, with the help of the social networks and the items. Third, we devise a counterfactual reasoning based recommendation algorithm by leveraging the recovered exposure strategies. Experiments on four real-world datasets, including three published datasets and one private WeChat Official Account dataset, demonstrate significant improvements over several state-of-the-art methods.

Weilin Chen, Jie Qiao, Ruichu Cai et al.

Causal discovery from observational data is an important but challenging task in many scientific fields. Recently, a method with non-combinatorial directed acyclic constraint, called NOTEARS, formulates the causal structure learning problem as a continuous optimization problem using least-square loss. Though the least-square loss function is well justified under the standard Gaussian noise assumption, it is limited if the assumption does not hold. In this work, we theoretically show that the violation of the Gaussian noise assumption will hinder the causal direction identification, making the causal orientation fully determined by the causal strength as well as the variances of noises in the linear case and by the strong non-Gaussian noises in the nonlinear case. Consequently, we propose a more general entropy-based loss that is theoretically consistent with the likelihood score under any noise distribution. We run extensive empirical evaluations on both synthetic data and real-world data to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method and show that our method achieves the best in Structure Hamming Distance, False Discovery Rate, and True Positive Rate matrices.

Ruichu Cai, Siyu Wu, Jie Qiao et al.

Learning causal structure among event types on multi-type event sequences is an important but challenging task. Existing methods, such as the Multivariate Hawkes processes, mostly assumed that each sequence is independent and identically distributed. However, in many real-world applications, it is commonplace to encounter a topological network behind the event sequences such that an event is excited or inhibited not only by its history but also by its topological neighbors. Consequently, the failure in describing the topological dependency among the event sequences leads to the error detection of the causal structure. By considering the Hawkes processes from the view of temporal convolution, we propose a Topological Hawkes process (THP) to draw a connection between the graph convolution in the topology domain and the temporal convolution in time domains. We further propose a causal structure learning method on THP in a likelihood framework. The proposed method is featured with the graph convolution-based likelihood function of THP and a sparse optimization scheme with an Expectation-Maximization of the likelihood function. Theoretical analysis and experiments on both synthetic and real-world data demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method

Ruichu Cai, Zijian Li, Pengfei Wei et al.

Domain adaptation is an important but challenging task. Most of the existing domain adaptation methods struggle to extract the domain-invariant representation on the feature space with entangling domain information and semantic information. Different from previous efforts on the entangled feature space, we aim to extract the domain invariant semantic information in the latent disentangled semantic representation (DSR) of the data. In DSR, we assume the data generation process is controlled by two independent sets of variables, i.e., the semantic latent variables and the domain latent variables. Under the above assumption, we employ a variational auto-encoder to reconstruct the semantic latent variables and domain latent variables behind the data. We further devise a dual adversarial network to disentangle these two sets of reconstructed latent variables. The disentangled semantic latent variables are finally adapted across the domains. Experimental studies testify that our model yields state-of-the-art performance on several domain adaptation benchmark datasets.

Chunlong Luo, Tianqi Yu, Yufan Luo et al.

Chromosome classification is an important but difficult and tedious task in karyotyping. Previous methods only classify manually segmented single chromosome, which is far from clinical practice. In this work, we propose a detection based method, DeepACC, to locate and fine classify chromosomes simultaneously based on the whole metaphase image. We firstly introduce the Additive Angular Margin Loss to enhance the discriminative power of model. To alleviate batch effects, we transform decision boundary of each class case-by-case through a siamese network which make full use of prior knowledges that chromosomes usually appear in pairs. Furthermore, we take the clinically seven group criterion as a prior knowledge and design an additional Group Inner-Adjacency Loss to further reduce inter-class similarities. 3390 metaphase images from clinical laboratory are collected and labelled to evaluate the performance. Results show that the new design brings encouraging performance gains comparing to the state-of-the-art baselines.

Jie Qiao, Zijian Li, Boyan Xu et al.

The challenge of learning disentangled representation has recently attracted much attention and boils down to a competition using a new real world disentanglement dataset (Gondal et al., 2019). Various methods based on variational auto-encoder have been proposed to solve this problem, by enforcing the independence between the representation and modifying the regularization term in the variational lower bound. However recent work by Locatello et al. (2018) has demonstrated that the proposed methods are heavily influenced by randomness and the choice of the hyper-parameter. In this work, instead of designing a new regularization term, we adopt the FactorVAE but improve the reconstruction performance and increase the capacity of network and the training step. The strategy turns out to be very effective and achieve the 1st place in the challenge.

Li Xiao, Chunlong Luo, Tianqi Yu et al.

Chromosome enumeration is an essential but tedious procedure in karyotyping analysis. To automate the enumeration process, we develop a chromosome enumeration framework, DeepACEv2, based on the region based object detection scheme. The framework is developed following three steps. Firstly, we take the classical ResNet-101 as the backbone and attach the Feature Pyramid Network (FPN) to the backbone. The FPN takes full advantage of the multiple level features, and we only output the level of feature map that most of the chromosomes are assigned to. Secondly, we enhance the region proposal network's ability by adding a newly proposed Hard Negative Anchors Sampling to extract unapparent but essential information about highly confusing partial chromosomes. Next, to alleviate serious occlusion problems, besides the traditional detection branch, we novelly introduce an isolated Template Module branch to extract unique embeddings of each proposal by utilizing the chromosome's geometric information. The embeddings are further incorporated into the No Maximum Suppression (NMS) procedure to improve the detection of overlapping chromosomes. Finally, we design a Truncated Normalized Repulsion Loss and add it to the loss function to avoid inaccurate localization caused by occlusion. In the newly collected 1375 metaphase images that came from a clinical laboratory, a series of ablation studies validate the effectiveness of each proposed module. Combining them, the proposed DeepACEv2 outperforms all the previous methods, yielding the Whole Correct Ratio(WCR)(%) with respect to images as 71.39, and the Average Error Ratio(AER)(%) with respect to chromosomes as about 1.17.

Ruichu Cai, Jie Qiao, Kun Zhang et al.

Identification of causal direction between a causal-effect pair from observed data has recently attracted much attention. Various methods based on functional causal models have been proposed to solve this problem, by assuming the causal process satisfies some (structural) constraints and showing that the reverse direction violates such constraints. The nonlinear additive noise model has been demonstrated to be effective for this purpose, but the model class is not transitive--even if each direct causal relation follows this model, indirect causal influences, which result from omitted intermediate causal variables and are frequently encountered in practice, do not necessarily follow the model constraints; as a consequence, the nonlinear additive noise model may fail to correctly discover causal direction. In this work, we propose a cascade nonlinear additive noise model to represent such causal influences--each direct causal relation follows the nonlinear additive noise model but we observe only the initial cause and final effect. We further propose a method to estimate the model, including the unmeasured intermediate variables, from data, under the variational auto-encoder framework. Our theoretical results show that with our model, causal direction is identifiable under suitable technical conditions on the data generation process. Simulation results illustrate the power of the proposed method in identifying indirect causal relations across various settings, and experimental results on real data suggest that the proposed model and method greatly extend the applicability of causal discovery based on functional causal models in nonlinear cases.