Yunpu Xu

Mengxuan Chen, Yunpu Xu, Qiuyan Sun et al.

Seasonal forecasting of summer rainfall in East Asia remains a grand challenge, as predictability at 3 to 6 month lead times is constrained by the spring predictability barrier, weak large-scale signals, and localized nonlinear convective extremes. We address this challenge with CAPES, which integrates a kilometer-resolution coupled regional model with atmosphere, land, and ocean components and a data-driven AI seasonal forecasting system. At 15 km resolution, the fused workflow combines 174 numerical members from varying start times, physics schemes, and parameter perturbations with 1,600 AI members generated from initial and physical perturbations. Using the full LineShine system, CAPES completes ten annual 1,774-member hindcasts for 2016 to 2025 within 14.6 hours, improving the mean prediction score from ECMWF's 71.8 to 75.9 and delivering a major gain in operational forecasting capability. The 1-km configuration further enables fine-scale typhoon simulation and establishes the feasibility of kilometer-scale fused ensemble forecasting on a one-week timescale.

Jinxiao Zhang, Runmin Dong, Xiyong Wu et al.

Earth observation is becoming one of the largest data-producing activities in science, yet current pipelines still treat compression as a storage and transmission tool rather than a new way to use data. We present a generative compression framework that learns from historical Earth observation archives and enables on-demand 100x to 10,000x data reduction across downstream tasks. Unlike general visual data, Earth observation repeatedly measures the same evolving planet, making historical-prior learning feasible for extreme compression. To realize this paradigm, we train large generative compression models at exascale on the LineShine Armv9 CPU supercomputer, with co-optimization across model design, kernels, memory hierarchy, runtime, and parallelism. Our implementation sustains 1.54 EFLOP/s and peaks at 2.16 EFLOP/s in end-to-end training. This work shows that historical-prior generative compression can turn Earth observation data into an active, task-adaptive foundation for acquisition, delivery, storage, and scientific use.