William Keely

Elaheh Jafarigol, William Keely, Tess Hartog et al.

This paper is a quantitative analysis of the data collected globally by the World Value Survey. The data is used to study the trajectories of change in individuals' religious beliefs, values, and behaviors in societies. Utilizing random forest, we aim to identify the key factors of religiosity and classify respondents of the survey as religious and non religious using country level data. We use resampling techniques to balance the data and improve imbalanced learning performance metrics. The results of the variable importance analysis suggest that Age and Income are the most important variables in the majority of countries. The results are discussed with fundamental sociological theories regarding religion and human behavior. This study is an application of machine learning in identifying the underlying patterns in the data of 30 countries participating in the World Value Survey. The results from variable importance analysis and classification of imbalanced data provide valuable insights beneficial to theoreticians and researchers of social sciences.

William R. Keely, Otto Lamminpää, Steffen Mauceri et al.

Satellite-based estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) properties from observations of reflected solar spectra are integral for understanding and monitoring complex terrestrial systems and their impact on the carbon cycle due to their near global coverage. Known as retrieval, making GHG concentration estimations from these observations is a non-linear Bayesian inverse problem, which is operationally solved using a computationally expensive algorithm called Optimal Estimation (OE), providing a Gaussian approximation to a non-Gaussian posterior. This leads to issues in solver algorithm convergence, and to unrealistically confident uncertainty estimates for the retrieved quantities. Upcoming satellite missions will provide orders of magnitude more data than the current constellation of GHG observers. Development of fast and accurate retrieval algorithms with robust uncertainty quantification is critical. Doing so stands to provide substantial climate impact of moving towards the goal of near continuous real-time global monitoring of carbon sources and sinks which is essential for policy making. To achieve this goal, we propose a diffusion-based approach to flexibly retrieve a Gaussian or non-Gaussian posterior, for NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 spectrometer, while providing a substantial computational speed-up over the current operational state-of-the-art.