Margaux Brégère

Bianca Marin Moreno, Margaux Brégère, Pierre Gaillard et al.

Integrating renewable energy into the power grid while balancing supply and demand is a complex issue, given its intermittent nature. Demand side management (DSM) offers solutions to this challenge. We propose a new method for DSM, in particular the problem of controlling a large population of electrical devices to follow a desired consumption signal. We model it as a finite horizon Markovian mean field control problem. We develop a new algorithm, MD-MFC, which provides theoretical guarantees for convex and Lipschitz objective functions. What distinguishes MD-MFC from the existing load control literature is its effectiveness in directly solving the target tracking problem without resorting to regularization techniques on the main problem. A non-standard Bregman divergence on a mirror descent scheme allows dynamic programming to be used to obtain simple closed-form solutions. In addition, we show that general mean-field game algorithms can be applied to this problem, which expands the possibilities for addressing load control problems. We illustrate our claims with experiments on a realistic data set.

Margaux Brégère, Julie Keisler

This work formulates model selection as an infinite-armed bandit problem, namely, a problem in which a decision maker iteratively selects one of an infinite number of fixed choices (i.e., arms) when the properties of each choice are only partially known at the time of allocation and may become better understood over time, via the attainment of rewards.Here, the arms are machine learning models to train and selecting an arm corresponds to a partial training of the model (resource allocation).The reward is the accuracy of the selected model after its partial training.We aim to identify the best model at the end of a finite number of resource allocations and thus consider the best arm identification setup. We propose the algorithm Mutant-UCB that incorporates operators from evolutionary algorithms into the UCB-E (Upper Confidence Bound Exploration) bandit algorithm introduced by Audiber et al.Tests carried out on three open source image classification data sets attest to the relevance of this novel combining approach, which outperforms the state-of-the-art for a fixed budget.

Julie Keisler, Sandra Claudel, Gilles Cabriel et al.

Accurate forecasting of electricity consumption is essential to ensure the performance and stability of the grid, especially as the use of renewable energy increases. Forecasting electricity is challenging because it depends on many external factors, such as weather and calendar variables. While regression-based models are currently effective, the emergence of new explanatory variables and the need to refine the temporality of the signals to be forecasted is encouraging the exploration of novel methodologies, in particular deep learning models. However, Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) struggle with this task due to the lack of data points and the different types of explanatory variables (e.g. integer, float, or categorical). In this paper, we explain why and how we used Automated Deep Learning (AutoDL) to find performing DNNs for load forecasting. We ended up creating an AutoDL framework called EnergyDragon by extending the DRAGON package and applying it to load forecasting. EnergyDragon automatically selects the features embedded in the DNN training in an innovative way and optimizes the architecture and the hyperparameters of the networks. We demonstrate on the French load signal that EnergyDragon can find original DNNs that outperform state-of-the-art load forecasting methods as well as other AutoDL approaches.

Bianca Marin Moreno, Khaled Eldowa, Pierre Gaillard et al.

We study online learning in episodic finite-horizon Markov decision processes (MDPs) with convex objective functions, known as the concave utility reinforcement learning (CURL) problem. This setting generalizes RL from linear to convex losses on the state-action distribution induced by the agent's policy. The non-linearity of CURL invalidates classical Bellman equations and requires new algorithmic approaches. We introduce the first algorithm achieving near-optimal regret bounds for online CURL without any prior knowledge on the transition function. To achieve this, we use an online mirror descent algorithm with varying constraint sets and a carefully designed exploration bonus. We then address for the first time a bandit version of CURL, where the only feedback is the value of the objective function on the state-action distribution induced by the agent's policy. We achieve a sub-linear regret bound for this more challenging problem by adapting techniques from bandit convex optimization to the MDP setting.

Keshav Das, Julie Keisler, Margaux Brégère et al.

Electricity demand forecasting is key to ensuring that supply meets demand lest the grid would blackout. Reliable short-term forecasts may be obtained by combining a Generalized Additive Models (GAM) with a State-Space model (Obst et al., 2021), leading to an adaptive (or online) model. A GAM is an over-parameterized linear model defined by a formula and a state-space model involves hyperparameters. Both the formula and adaptation parameters have to be fixed before model training and have a huge impact on the model's predictive performance. We propose optimizing them using the DRAGON package of Keisler (2025), originally designed for neural architecture search. This work generalizes it for automated online generalized additive model selection by defining an efficient modeling of the search space (namely, the space of the GAM formulae and adaptation parameters). Its application to short-term French electricity demand forecasting demonstrates the relevance of the approach

Margaux Brégère, Ricardo J. Bessa

The implementation of efficient demand response (DR) programs for household electricity consumption would benefit from data-driven methods capable of simulating the impact of different tariffs schemes. This paper proposes a novel method based on conditional variational autoencoders (CVAE) to generate, from an electricity tariff profile combined with exogenous weather and calendar variables, daily consumption profiles of consumers segmented in different clusters. First, a large set of consumers is gathered into clusters according to their consumption behavior and price-responsiveness. The clustering method is based on a causality model that measures the effect of a specific tariff on the consumption level. Then, daily electrical energy consumption profiles are generated for each cluster with CVAE. This non-parametric approach is compared to a semi-parametric data generator based on generalized additive models and that uses prior knowledge of energy consumption. Experiments in a publicly available data set show that, the proposed method presents comparable performance to the semi-parametric one when it comes to generating the average value of the original data. The main contribution from this new method is the capacity to reproduce rebound and side effects in the generated consumption profiles. Indeed, the application of a special electricity tariff over a time window may also affect consumption outside this time window. Another contribution is that the clustering approach segments consumers according to their daily consumption profile and elasticity to tariff changes. These two results combined are very relevant for an ex-ante testing of future DR policies by system operators, retailers and energy regulators.

Margaux Brégère, Malo Huard

We study the forecasting of the power consumptions of a population of households and of subpopulations thereof. These subpopulations are built according to location, to exogenous information and/or to profiles we determined from historical households consumption time series. Thus, we aim to forecast the electricity consumption time series at several levels of households aggregation. These time series are linked through some summation constraints which induce a hierarchy. Our approach consists in three steps: feature generation, aggregation and projection. Firstly (feature generation step), we build, for each considering group for households, a benchmark forecast (called features), using random forests or generalized additive models. Secondly (aggregation step), aggregation algorithms, run in parallel, aggregate these forecasts and provide new predictions. Finally (projection step), we use the summation constraints induced by the time series underlying hierarchy to re-conciliate the forecasts by projecting them in a well-chosen linear subspace. We provide some theoretical guaranties on the average prediction error of this methodology, through the minimization of a quantity called regret. We also test our approach on households power consumption data collected in Great Britain by multiple energy providers in the Energy Demand Research Project context. We build and compare various population segmentations for the evaluation of our approach performance.

Margaux Brégère, Pierre Gaillard, Yannig Goude et al.

We propose a contextual-bandit approach for demand side management by offering price incentives. More precisely, a target mean consumption is set at each round and the mean consumption is modeled as a complex function of the distribution of prices sent and of some contextual variables such as the temperature, weather, and so on. The performance of our strategies is measured in quadratic losses through a regret criterion. We offer $T^{2/3}$ upper bounds on this regret (up to poly-logarithmic terms)---and even faster rates under stronger assumptions---for strategies inspired by standard strategies for contextual bandits (like LinUCB, see Li et al., 2010). Simulations on a real data set gathered by UK Power Networks, in which price incentives were offered, show that our strategies are effective and may indeed manage demand response by suitably picking the price levels.