Damir Filipovic

Damir Filipovic, Stefan Tappe, Josef Teichmann

By means of an original approach, called "method of the moving frame", we establish existence, uniqueness and stability results for mild and weak solutions of stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) with path dependent coefficients driven by an infinite dimensional Wiener process and a compensated Poisson random measure. Our approach is based on a time-dependent coordinate transform, which reduces a wide class of SPDEs to a class of simpler SDE problems. We try to present the most general results, which we can obtain in our setting, within a self-contained framework to demonstrate our approach in all details. Also several numerical approaches to SPDEs in the spirit of this setting are presented.

Damir Filipovic, Paul Schneider

We introduce kernel density machines (KDM), a nonparametric estimator of a Radon--Nikodym derivative, based on reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. KDM applies to general probability measures on countably generated measurable spaces under minimal assumptions. For computational efficiency, we incorporate a low-rank approximation with precisely controlled error that grants scalability to large-sample settings. We provide rigorous theoretical guarantees, including asymptotic consistency, a functional central limit theorem, and finite-sample error bounds, establishing a strong foundation for practical use. Empirical results based on simulated and real data demonstrate the efficacy and precision of KDM.

Damir Filipovic, Paul Schneider

We develop a nonparametric, kernel-based joint estimator for conditional mean and covariance matrices in large and unbalanced panels. The estimator is supported by rigorous consistency results and finite-sample guarantees, ensuring its reliability for empirical applications. We apply it to an extensive panel of monthly US stock excess returns from 1962 to 2021, using macroeconomic and firm-specific covariates as conditioning variables. The estimator effectively captures time-varying cross-sectional dependencies, demonstrating robust statistical and economic performance. We find that idiosyncratic risk explains, on average, more than 75% of the cross-sectional variance.

Nicolas Camenzind, Damir Filipovic

We propose a framework for transfer learning of discount curves across different fixed-income product classes. Motivated by challenges in estimating discount curves from sparse or noisy data, we extend kernel ridge regression (KR) to a vector-valued setting, formulating a convex optimization problem in a vector-valued reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). Each component of the solution corresponds to the discount curve implied by a specific product class. We introduce an additional regularization term motivated by economic principles, promoting smoothness of spread curves between product classes, and show that it leads to a valid separable kernel structure. A main theoretical contribution is a decomposition of the vector-valued RKHS norm induced by separable kernels. We further provide a Gaussian process interpretation of vector-valued KR, enabling quantification of estimation uncertainty. Illustrative examples demonstrate that transfer learning significantly improves extrapolation performance and tightens confidence intervals compared to single-curve estimation.

Damir Filipovic, Michael Multerer, Paul Schneider

We develop a new framework for estimating joint probability distributions using tensor product reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS). Our framework accommodates a low-dimensional, normalized and positive model of a Radon--Nikodym derivative, which we estimate from sample sizes of up to several millions, alleviating the inherent limitations of RKHS modeling. Well-defined normalized and positive conditional distributions are natural by-products to our approach. Our proposal is fast to compute and accommodates learning problems ranging from prediction to classification. Our theoretical findings are supplemented by favorable numerical results.