Kaito Iwasaki

Kaito Iwasaki, Tejaswi K. C., Anthony Bloch et al.

Stochastic hybrid systems combine continuous-time stochastic dynamics with discrete reset events, producing intrinsically non-Gaussian and often multimodal uncertainty. A consistent propagation law must also account for boundary-induced probability flux across guard sets, making direct density propagation through hybrid Fokker-Planck equations expensive. We develop a hybrid extension of the Max-Entropy Moment Kalman Filter (MEM-KF) that performs filtering from partial statistical information by propagating a finite collection of moments through stochastic hybrid dynamics and reconstructing beliefs using moment-constrained maximum-entropy distributions. The key step is a moment propagation rule derived from Dynkin's formula with a jump-sum, in which reset effects appear as a boundary-flux correction over the guard set. This yields tractable moment dynamics without solving the underlying hybrid PDE. In a stochastic bouncing-ball example, the proposed method captures reset-induced non-Gaussianity through corrected moment equations while retaining the MEM-KF's optimization-based maximum-entropy representation.

Kaito Iwasaki, Anthony Bloch, Taeyoung Lee et al.

A central obstacle in nonlinear Bayesian filtering is representing the belief distribution. Moment-based filters address this by propagating polynomial moments and reconstructing a density from them. Recent work completes the predict-update loop via the maximum-entropy (MaxEnt) principle, but each step requires the partition function and its gradient, both $n$-dimensional integrals whose cost scales exponentially, restricting the demonstrated MaxEnt moment filtering to $n \le 4$. We avoid the partition function entirely by combining score matching with Stein's identity. In our setting, score matching reduces the density fit to a single linear solve whose coefficients are assembled directly from the propagated moments. The same parameters then drive Stein's identity to close the moment hierarchy during prediction and to recover posterior moments after each Bayesian update, keeping the full predict-update loop free of partition function evaluation. The resulting Score Kalman Filter (SKF) reduces to the classical information-form Kalman filter as a special case and performs every step through linear algebra. On nonlinear coupled-oscillator networks, the SKF runs through $n=20$ and reports lower RMSE than the EKF, UKF, EnKF, and particle-filter baselines on the tested synthetic benchmarks.