Olawale Salaudeen

Ibrahim Alabdulmohsin, Nicole Chiou, Alexander D'Amour et al.

We address the problem of unsupervised domain adaptation when the source domain differs from the target domain because of a shift in the distribution of a latent subgroup. When this subgroup confounds all observed data, neither covariate shift nor label shift assumptions apply. We show that the optimal target predictor can be non-parametrically identified with the help of concept and proxy variables available only in the source domain, and unlabeled data from the target. The identification results are constructive, immediately suggesting an algorithm for estimating the optimal predictor in the target. For continuous observations, when this algorithm becomes impractical, we propose a latent variable model specific to the data generation process at hand. We show how the approach degrades as the size of the shift changes, and verify that it outperforms both covariate and label shift adjustment.

Laura Weidinger, Inioluwa Deborah Raji, Hanna Wallach et al.

There is an increasing imperative to anticipate and understand the performance and safety of generative AI systems in real-world deployment contexts. However, the current evaluation ecosystem is insufficient: Commonly used static benchmarks face validity challenges, and ad hoc case-by-case audits rarely scale. In this piece, we advocate for maturing an evaluation science for generative AI systems. While generative AI creates unique challenges for system safety engineering and measurement science, the field can draw valuable insights from the development of safety evaluation practices in other fields, including transportation, aerospace, and pharmaceutical engineering. In particular, we present three key lessons: Evaluation metrics must be applicable to real-world performance, metrics must be iteratively refined, and evaluation institutions and norms must be established. Applying these insights, we outline a concrete path toward a more rigorous approach for evaluating generative AI systems.

Olawale Salaudeen, Anka Reuel, Ahmed Ahmed et al.

While the capabilities and utility of AI systems have advanced, rigorous norms for evaluating these systems have lagged. Grand claims, such as models achieving general reasoning capabilities, are supported with model performance on narrow benchmarks, like performance on graduate-level exam questions, which provide a limited and potentially misleading assessment. We provide a structured approach for reasoning about the types of evaluative claims that can be made given the available evidence. For instance, our framework helps determine whether performance on a mathematical benchmark is an indication of the ability to solve problems on math tests or instead indicates a broader ability to reason. Our framework is well-suited for the contemporary paradigm in machine learning, where various stakeholders provide measurements and evaluations that downstream users use to validate their claims and decisions. At the same time, our framework also informs the construction of evaluations designed to speak to the validity of the relevant claims. By leveraging psychometrics' breakdown of validity, evaluations can prioritize the most critical facets for a given claim, improving empirical utility and decision-making efficacy. We illustrate our framework through detailed case studies of vision and language model evaluations, highlighting how explicitly considering validity strengthens the connection between evaluation evidence and the claims being made.

Katherine Tsai, Stephen R. Pfohl, Olawale Salaudeen et al.

We study the problem of domain adaptation under distribution shift, where the shift is due to a change in the distribution of an unobserved, latent variable that confounds both the covariates and the labels. In this setting, neither the covariate shift nor the label shift assumptions apply. Our approach to adaptation employs proximal causal learning, a technique for estimating causal effects in settings where proxies of unobserved confounders are available. We demonstrate that proxy variables allow for adaptation to distribution shift without explicitly recovering or modeling latent variables. We consider two settings, (i) Concept Bottleneck: an additional ''concept'' variable is observed that mediates the relationship between the covariates and labels; (ii) Multi-domain: training data from multiple source domains is available, where each source domain exhibits a different distribution over the latent confounder. We develop a two-stage kernel estimation approach to adapt to complex distribution shifts in both settings. In our experiments, we show that our approach outperforms other methods, notably those which explicitly recover the latent confounder.

Olawale Salaudeen, Sanmi Koyejo

Given a causal graph representing the data-generating process shared across different domains/distributions, enforcing sufficient graph-implied conditional independencies can identify domain-general (non-spurious) feature representations. For the standard input-output predictive setting, we categorize the set of graphs considered in the literature into two distinct groups: (i) those in which the empirical risk minimizer across training domains gives domain-general representations and (ii) those where it does not. For the latter case (ii), we propose a novel framework with regularizations, which we demonstrate are sufficient for identifying domain-general feature representations without a priori knowledge (or proxies) of the spurious features. Empirically, our proposed method is effective for both (semi) synthetic and real-world data, outperforming other state-of-the-art methods in average and worst-domain transfer accuracy.

Olawale Salaudeen, Nicole Chiou, Shiny Weng et al.

Spurious correlations, unstable statistical shortcuts a model can exploit, are expected to degrade performance out-of-distribution (OOD). However, across many popular OOD generalization benchmarks, vanilla empirical risk minimization (ERM) often achieves the highest OOD accuracy. Moreover, gains in in-distribution accuracy generally improve OOD accuracy, a phenomenon termed accuracy on the line, which contradicts the expected harm of spurious correlations. We show that these observations are an artifact of misspecified OOD datasets that do not include shifts in spurious correlations that harm OOD generalization, the setting they are meant to evaluate. Consequently, current practice evaluates "robustness" without truly stressing the spurious signals we seek to eliminate; our work pinpoints when that happens and how to fix it. Contributions. (i) We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for a distribution shift to reveal a model's reliance on spurious features; when these conditions hold, "accuracy on the line" disappears. (ii) We audit leading OOD datasets and find that most still display accuracy on the line, suggesting they are misspecified for evaluating robustness to spurious correlations. (iii) We catalog the few well-specified datasets and summarize generalizable design principles, such as identifying datasets of natural interventions (e.g., a pandemic), to guide future well-specified benchmarks.