Gustav Markkula

Floor Bontje, Felix van Waveren, Leendert van Maanen et al.

Evidence accumulation models provide a formal framework for studying decision making as a dynamic process unfolding over time. While these models have been extensively developed and reviewed in laboratory paradigms, their structured application in complex, ecologically valid domains has received comparatively little attention. Road traffic is a particularly relevant context for studying sustained, embodied perception action behavior, where decisions unfold under time pressure and involve continuous control and ongoing perception-action coupling. Examining how EAMs have been applied in this domain may therefore offer insights beyond discrete laboratory tasks toward decision making in real-world behavior. This semi-systematic review synthesizes 28 studies (2014-2026) applying EAMs to traffic-related behavior. We organize the literature along two dimensions: 1) modelling level, distinguishing models at the level of discrete decision-making and models at the level of continuous action control, and 2) model architecture, distinguishing evidence accumulation as either a stand-alone decision model or an embedded component within broader perception-action or interaction frameworks. These distinctions are associated with systematic differences in model architecture, parameterization, data usage, and validation strategies, reflecting task specific demands. By providing a structured overview of these patterns, this review clarifies how EAMs are currently instantiated in traffic contexts and highlights methodological challenges and future directions both in traffic modelling and in modelling of decision-making more broadly. Promising directions include laboratory work on evidence accumulation in sustained and time-varying tasks, interactive multi-individual decision-making, and the use of neurophysiological measures to identify the perceptual evidence underlying complex perception-action behavior.

Gustav Markkula, Erwin Boer, Richard Romano et al.

A conceptual and computational framework is proposed for modelling of human sensorimotor control, and is exemplified for the sensorimotor task of steering a car. The framework emphasises control intermittency, and extends on existing models by suggesting that the nervous system implements intermittent control using a combination of (1) motor primitives, (2) prediction of sensory outcomes of motor actions, and (3) evidence accumulation of prediction errors. It is shown that approximate but useful sensory predictions in the intermittent control context can be constructed without detailed forward models, as a superposition of simple prediction primitives, resembling neurobiologically observed corollary discharges. The proposed mathematical framework allows straightforward extension to intermittent behaviour from existing one-dimensional continuous models in the linear control and ecological psychology traditions. Empirical observations from a driving simulator provide support for some of the framework assumptions: It is shown that human steering control, in routine lane-keeping and in a demanding near-limit task, is better described as a sequence of discrete stepwise steering adjustments, than as continuous control. Furthermore, the amplitudes of individual steering adjustments are well predicted by a compound visual cue signalling steering error, and even better so if also adjusting for predictions of how the same cue is affected by previous control. Finally, evidence accumulation is shown to explain observed covariability between inter-adjustment durations and adjustment amplitudes, seemingly better so than the type of threshold mechanisms that are typically assumed in existing models of intermittent control.

Chi Zhang, Amir Hossein Kalantari, Yue Yang et al.

Predicting pedestrian behavior when interacting with vehicles is one of the most critical challenges in the field of automated driving. Pedestrian crossing behavior is influenced by various interaction factors, including time to arrival, pedestrian waiting time, the presence of zebra crossing, and the properties and personality traits of both pedestrians and drivers. However, these factors have not been fully explored for use in predicting interaction outcomes. In this paper, we use machine learning to predict pedestrian crossing behavior including pedestrian crossing decision, crossing initiation time (CIT), and crossing duration (CD) when interacting with vehicles at unsignalized crossings. Distributed simulator data are utilized for predicting and analyzing the interaction factors. Compared with the logistic regression baseline model, our proposed neural network model improves the prediction accuracy and F1 score by 4.46% and 3.23%, respectively. Our model also reduces the root mean squared error (RMSE) for CIT and CD by 21.56% and 30.14% compared with the linear regression model. Additionally, we have analyzed the importance of interaction factors, and present the results of models using fewer factors. This provides information for model selection in different scenarios with limited input features.

Gustav Markkula, Richard Romano, Rachel Waldram et al.

It is well established that not only vision but also other sensory modalities affect drivers' control of their vehicles, and that drivers adapt over time to persistent changes in sensory cues (for example in driving simulators), but the mechanisms underlying these behavioural phenomena are poorly understood. Here, we consider the existing literature on how driver steering in slalom tasks is affected by the down-scaling of vestibular cues, and propose a driver model that can explain the empirically observed effects, namely: decreased task performance and increased steering effort during initial exposure, followed by a partial reversal of these effects as task exposure is prolonged. Unexpectedly, the model also reproduced another empirical finding: a local optimum for motion down-scaling, where path-tracking is better than when one-to-one motion cues are available. Overall, the results imply that: (1) drivers make direct use of vestibular information as part of determining appropriate steering, and (2) motion down-scaling causes a yaw rate underestimation phenomenon, where drivers behave as if the simulated vehicle is rotating more slowly than it is. However, (3) in the slalom task, a certain degree of such yaw rate underestimation is beneficial to path tracking performance. Furthermore, (4) behavioural adaptation, as empirically observed in slalom tasks, may occur due to (a) down-weighting of vestibular cues, and/or (b) increased sensitivity to control errors, in determining when to adjust steering and by how much, but (c) seemingly not in the form of a full compensatory rescaling of the received vestibular input. The analyses presented here provide new insights and hypotheses about simulator driving, and the developed models can be used to support research on multisensory integration and behavioural adaptation in both driving and other task domains.

Aravinda Ramakrishnan Srinivasan, Yi-Shin Lin, Morris Antonello et al.

Autonomous vehicles use a variety of sensors and machine-learned models to predict the behavior of surrounding road users. Most of the machine-learned models in the literature focus on quantitative error metrics like the root mean square error (RMSE) to learn and report their models' capabilities. This focus on quantitative error metrics tends to ignore the more important behavioral aspect of the models, raising the question of whether these models really predict human-like behavior. Thus, we propose to analyze the output of machine-learned models much like we would analyze human data in conventional behavioral research. We introduce quantitative metrics to demonstrate presence of three different behavioral phenomena in a naturalistic highway driving dataset: 1) The kinematics-dependence of who passes a merging point first 2) Lane change by an on-highway vehicle to accommodate an on-ramp vehicle 3) Lane changes by vehicles on the highway to avoid lead vehicle conflicts. Then, we analyze the behavior of three machine-learned models using the same metrics. Even though the models' RMSE value differed, all the models captured the kinematic-dependent merging behavior but struggled at varying degrees to capture the more nuanced courtesy lane change and highway lane change behavior. Additionally, the collision aversion analysis during lane changes showed that the models struggled to capture the physical aspect of human driving: leaving adequate gap between the vehicles. Thus, our analysis highlighted the inadequacy of simple quantitative metrics and the need to take a broader behavioral perspective when analyzing machine-learned models of human driving predictions.

Ran Wei, Anthony D. McDonald, Alfredo Garcia et al.

In this paper we introduce a general estimation methodology for learning a model of human perception and control in a sensorimotor control task based upon a finite set of demonstrations. The model's structure consists of i the agent's internal representation of how the environment and associated observations evolve as a result of control actions and ii the agent's preferences over observable outcomes. We consider a model's structure specification consistent with active inference, a theory of human perception and behavior from cognitive science. According to active inference, the agent acts upon the world so as to minimize surprise defined as a measure of the extent to which an agent's current sensory observations differ from its preferred sensory observations. We propose a bi-level optimization approach to estimation which relies on a structural assumption on prior distributions that parameterize the statistical accuracy of the human agent's model of the environment. To illustrate the proposed methodology, we present the estimation of a model for car-following behavior based upon a naturalistic dataset. Overall, the results indicate that learning active inference models of human perception and control from data is a promising alternative to black-box models of driving.

Yueyang Wang, Aravinda Ramakrishnan Srinivasan, Jussi P. P. Jokinen et al.

Understanding the interaction between different road users is critical for road safety and automated vehicles (AVs). Existing mathematical models on this topic have been proposed based mostly on either cognitive or machine learning (ML) approaches. However, current cognitive models are incapable of simulating road user trajectories in general scenarios, and ML models lack a focus on the mechanisms generating the behavior and take a high-level perspective which can cause failures to capture important human-like behaviors. Here, we develop a model of human pedestrian crossing decisions based on computational rationality, an approach using deep reinforcement learning (RL) to learn boundedly optimal behavior policies given human constraints, in our case a model of the limited human visual system. We show that the proposed combined cognitive-RL model captures human-like patterns of gap acceptance and crossing initiation time. Interestingly, our model's decisions are sensitive to not only the time gap, but also the speed of the approaching vehicle, something which has been described as a "bias" in human gap acceptance behavior. However, our results suggest that this is instead a rational adaption to human perceptual limitations. Moreover, we demonstrate an approach to accounting for individual differences in computational rationality models, by conditioning the RL policy on the parameters of the human constraints. Our results demonstrate the feasibility of generating more human-like road user behavior by combining RL with cognitive models.

Mohamed Hasan, Albert Solernou, Evangelos Paschalidis et al.

Autonomous vehicles should be able to predict the future states of its environment and respond appropriately. Specifically, predicting the behavior of surrounding human drivers is vital for such platforms to share the same road with humans. Behavior of each of the surrounding vehicles is governed by the motion of its neighbor vehicles. This paper focuses on predicting the behavior of the surrounding vehicles of an autonomous vehicle on highways. We are motivated by improving the prediction accuracy when a surrounding vehicle performs lane change and highway merging maneuvers. We propose a novel pooling strategy to capture the inter-dependencies between the neighbor vehicles. Depending solely on Euclidean trajectory representation, the existing pooling strategies do not model the context information of the maneuvers intended by a surrounding vehicle. In contrast, our pooling mechanism employs polar trajectory representation, vehicles orientation and radial velocity. This results in an implicitly maneuver-aware pooling operation. We incorporated the proposed pooling mechanism into a generative encoder-decoder model, and evaluated our method on the public NGSIM dataset. The results of maneuver-based trajectory predictions demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method compared with the state-of-the-art approaches. Our "Pooling Toolbox" code is available at https://github.com/m-hasan-n/pooling.

Mohamed Hasan, Evangelos Paschalidis, Albert Solernou et al.

Predicting future behavior of the surrounding vehicles is crucial for self-driving platforms to safely navigate through other traffic. This is critical when making decisions like crossing an unsignalized intersection. We address the problem of vehicle motion prediction in a challenging roundabout environment by learning from human driver data. We extend existing recurrent encoder-decoder models to be advantageously combined with anchor trajectories to predict vehicle behaviors on a roundabout. Drivers' intentions are encoded by a set of maneuvers that correspond to semantic driving concepts. Accordingly, our model employs a set of maneuver-specific anchor trajectories that cover the space of possible outcomes at the roundabout. The proposed model can output a multi-modal distribution over the predicted future trajectories based on the maneuver-specific anchors. We evaluate our model using the public RounD dataset and the experiment results show the effectiveness of the proposed maneuver-based anchor regression in improving prediction accuracy, reducing the average RMSE to 28% less than the best baseline. Our code is available at https://github.com/m-hasan-n/roundabout.

Yueyang Wang, Mehmet Dogar, Gustav Markkula

Modelling pedestrian-driver interactions is critical for understanding human road user behaviour and developing safe autonomous vehicle systems. Existing approaches often rely on rule-based logic, game-theoretic models, or 'black-box' machine learning methods. However, these models typically lack flexibility or overlook the underlying mechanisms, such as sensory and motor constraints, which shape how pedestrians and drivers perceive and act in interactive scenarios. In this study, we propose a multi-agent reinforcement learning (RL) framework that integrates both visual and motor constraints of pedestrian and driver agents. Using a real-world dataset from an unsignalised pedestrian crossing, we evaluate four model variants, one without constraints, two with either motor or visual constraints, and one with both, across behavioural metrics of interaction realism. Results show that the combined model with both visual and motor constraints performs best. Motor constraints lead to smoother movements that resemble human speed adjustments during crossing interactions. The addition of visual constraints introduces perceptual uncertainty and field-of-view limitations, leading the agents to exhibit more cautious and variable behaviour, such as less abrupt deceleration. In this data-limited setting, our model outperforms a supervised behavioural cloning model, demonstrating that our approach can be effective without large training datasets. Finally, our framework accounts for individual differences by modelling parameters controlling the human constraints as population-level distributions, a perspective that has not been explored in previous work on pedestrian-vehicle interaction modelling. Overall, our work demonstrates that multi-agent RL with human constraints is a promising modelling approach for simulating realistic road user interactions.

Chenghao Qian, Yuhu Guo, Wenjing Li et al.

3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) has gained significant attention for 3D scene reconstruction, but still suffers from complex outdoor environments, especially under adverse weather. This is because 3DGS treats the artifacts caused by adverse weather as part of the scene and will directly reconstruct them, largely reducing the clarity of the reconstructed scene. To address this challenge, we propose WeatherGS, a 3DGS-based framework for reconstructing clear scenes from multi-view images under different weather conditions. Specifically, we explicitly categorize the multi-weather artifacts into the dense particles and lens occlusions that have very different characters, in which the former are caused by snowflakes and raindrops in the air, and the latter are raised by the precipitation on the camera lens. In light of this, we propose a dense-to-sparse preprocess strategy, which sequentially removes the dense particles by an Atmospheric Effect Filter (AEF) and then extracts the relatively sparse occlusion masks with a Lens Effect Detector (LED). Finally, we train a set of 3D Gaussians by the processed images and generated masks for excluding occluded areas, and accurately recover the underlying clear scene by Gaussian splatting. We conduct a diverse and challenging benchmark to facilitate the evaluation of 3D reconstruction under complex weather scenarios. Extensive experiments on this benchmark demonstrate that our WeatherGS consistently produces high-quality, clean scenes across various weather scenarios, outperforming existing state-of-the-art methods. See project page:https://jumponthemoon.github.io/weather-gs.

Yueyang Wang, Aravinda Ramakrishnan Srinivasan, Jussi P. P. Jokinen et al.

This paper presents a model of pedestrian crossing decisions, based on the theory of computational rationality. It is assumed that crossing decisions are boundedly optimal, with bounds on optimality arising from human cognitive limitations. While previous models of pedestrian behaviour have been either 'black-box' machine learning models or mechanistic models with explicit assumptions about cognitive factors, we combine both approaches. Specifically, we model mechanistically noisy human visual perception and assumed rewards in crossing, but we use reinforcement learning to learn bounded optimal behaviour policy. The model reproduces a larger number of known empirical phenomena than previous models, in particular: (1) the effect of the time to arrival of an approaching vehicle on whether the pedestrian accepts the gap, the effect of the vehicle's speed on both (2) gap acceptance and (3) pedestrian timing of crossing in front of yielding vehicles, and (4) the effect on this crossing timing of the stopping distance of the yielding vehicle. Notably, our findings suggest that behaviours previously framed as 'biases' in decision-making, such as speed-dependent gap acceptance, might instead be a product of rational adaptation to the constraints of visual perception. Our approach also permits fitting the parameters of cognitive constraints and rewards per individual, to better account for individual differences. To conclude, by leveraging both RL and mechanistic modelling, our model offers novel insights about pedestrian behaviour, and may provide a useful foundation for more accurate and scalable pedestrian models.

Julian F. Schumann, Aravinda Ramakrishnan Srinivasan, Jens Kober et al.

The development of automated vehicles has the potential to revolutionize transportation, but they are currently unable to ensure a safe and time-efficient driving style. Reliable models predicting human behavior are essential for overcoming this issue. While data-driven models are commonly used to this end, they can be vulnerable in safety-critical edge cases. This has led to an interest in models incorporating cognitive theory, but as such models are commonly developed for explanatory purposes, this approach's effectiveness in behavior prediction has remained largely untested so far. In this article, we investigate the usefulness of the \emph{Commotions} model -- a novel cognitively plausible model incorporating the latest theories of human perception, decision-making, and motor control -- for predicting human behavior in gap acceptance scenarios, which entail many important traffic interactions such as lane changes and intersections. We show that this model can compete with or even outperform well-established data-driven prediction models across several naturalistic datasets. These results demonstrate the promise of incorporating cognitive theory in behavior prediction models for automated vehicles.

Gustav Markkula, Mehmet Dogar

There are many examples of cases where access to improved models of human behavior and cognition has allowed creation of robots which can better interact with humans, and not least in road vehicle automation this is a rapidly growing area of research. Human-robot interaction (HRI) therefore provides an important applied setting for human behavior modeling - but given the vast complexity of human behavior, how complete and accurate do these models need to be? Here, we outline some possible ways of thinking about this problem, starting from the suggestion that modelers need to keep the right end goal in sight: A successful human-robot interaction, in terms of safety, performance, and human satisfaction. Efforts toward model completeness and accuracy should be focused on those aspects of human behavior to which interaction success is most sensitive. We emphasise that identifying which those aspects are is a difficult scientific objective in its own right, distinct for each given HRI context. We propose and exemplify an approach to formulating a priori hypotheses on this matter, in cases where robots are to be involved in interactions which currently take place between humans, such as in automated driving. Our perspective also highlights some possible risks of overreliance on machine-learned models of human behavior in HRI, and how to mitigate against those risks.

Yi-Shin Lin, Aravinda Ramakrishnan Srinivasan, Matteo Leonetti et al.

Many models account for the traffic flow of road users but few take the details of local interactions into consideration and how they could deteriorate into safety-critical situations. Building on the concept of sensorimotor control, we develop a modeling framework applying the principles of utility maximization, motor primitives, and intermittent action decisions to account for the details of interactive behaviors among road users. The framework connects these principles to the decision theory and is applied to determine whether such an approach can reproduce the following phenomena: When two pedestrians travel on crossing paths, (a) their interaction is sensitive to initial asymmetries, and (b) based on which, they rapidly resolve collision conflict by adapting their behaviors. When a pedestrian crosses the road while facing an approaching car, (c) either road user yields to the other to resolve their conflict, akin to the pedestrian interaction, and (d) the outcome reveals a specific situational kinematics, associated with the nature of vehicle acceleration. We show that these phenomena emerge naturally from our modeling framework when the model can evolve its parameters as a consequence of the situations. We believe that the modeling framework and phenomenon-centered analysis offer promising tools to understand road user interactions. We conclude with a discussion on how the model can be instrumental in studying the safety-critical situations when including other variables in road-user interactions.

Aravinda Ramakrishnan Srinivasan, Mohamed Hasan, Yi-Shin Lin et al.

There is quickly growing literature on machine-learned models that predict human driving trajectories in road traffic. These models focus their learning on low-dimensional error metrics, for example average distance between model-generated and observed trajectories. Such metrics permit relative comparison of models, but do not provide clearly interpretable information on how close to human behavior the models actually come, for example in terms of higher-level behavior phenomena that are known to be present in human driving. We study highway driving as an example scenario, and introduce metrics to quantitatively demonstrate the presence, in a naturalistic dataset, of two familiar behavioral phenomena: (1) The kinematics-dependent contest, between on-highway and on-ramp vehicles, of who passes the merging point first. (2) Courtesy lane changes away from the outermost lane, to leave space for a merging vehicle. Applying the exact same metrics to the output of a state-of-the-art machine-learned model, we show that the model is capable of reproducing the former phenomenon, but not the latter. We argue that this type of behavioral analysis provides information that is not available from conventional model-fitting metrics, and that it may be useful to analyze (and possibly fit) models also based on these types of behavioral criteria.

Fanta Camara, Nicola Bellotto, Serhan Cosar et al.

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) must share space with pedestrians, both in carriageway cases such as cars at pedestrian crossings and off-carriageway cases such as delivery vehicles navigating through crowds on pedestrianized high-streets. Unlike static obstacles, pedestrians are active agents with complex, interactive motions. Planning AV actions in the presence of pedestrians thus requires modelling of their probable future behaviour as well as detecting and tracking them. This narrative review article is Part II of a pair, together surveying the current technology stack involved in this process, organising recent research into a hierarchical taxonomy ranging from low-level image detection to high-level psychological models, from the perspective of an AV designer. This self-contained Part II covers the higher levels of this stack, consisting of models of pedestrian behaviour, from prediction of individual pedestrians' likely destinations and paths, to game-theoretic models of interactions between pedestrians and autonomous vehicles. This survey clearly shows that, although there are good models for optimal walking behaviour, high-level psychological and social modelling of pedestrian behaviour still remains an open research question that requires many conceptual issues to be clarified. Early work has been done on descriptive and qualitative models of behaviour, but much work is still needed to translate them into quantitative algorithms for practical AV control.

Richard Romano, Gustav Markkula, Erwin Boer et al.

Driving simulators can be used to test vehicle designs earlier, prior to building physical prototypes. One area of particular interest is winter testing since testing is limited to specific times of year and specific regions in the world. To ensure that the simulator is fit for purpose, an objective assessment is required. In this study a simulator and real world comparison was performed with three simulator configurations (standard, no steering torque, no motion) to assess the ability of a utility triplet of analyses to be able to quantify the differences between the real world and the different simulator configurations. The results suggest that the utility triplet is effective in measuring the differences in simulator configurations and that the developed Virtual Sweden environment achieved rather good behavioural fidelity in the sense of preserving absolute levels of many measures of behaviour. The main limitation in the simulated environment seemed to be the poor match of the dynamic lateral friction limit on snow and ice when compared to the real world.