Ke‐Wei Huang

Jiaze Sun, Kelvin J. L. Koa, Ruiyang Ni et al.

Financial forecasting is difficult due to low signal-to-noise ratios, latent factors, heavy tails, regime shifts, and jumps. Real-world benchmarks offer limited failure attribution: researchers can observe underperformance, but often cannot isolate why because mechanisms are unobservable and entangled. Real financial data reveal only one realized path, making it difficult to assess tail-risk calibration or data efficiency. We introduce FinStressTS, a mechanism-aware synthetic benchmark that links model behavior to controlled structural causes. FinStressTS comprises 30 diagnostic environments around six mechanism families: volatility clustering, multi-scale persistence, heavy-tailed shocks, regime switching, self-exciting jumps, and zero-inflated processes. We evaluate two tasks: point forecasting, using NMAE across five settings, and probabilistic forecasting, using CRPS under known data-generating mechanisms. We benchmark 15 models, from classical methods (HAR, VAR) to Transformer forecasters (PatchTST, iTransformer) and deep probabilistic architectures (DeepAR, TSFlow), and use learning curves to measure sample efficiency. Our evaluation reveals three insights. First, performance is mechanism-dependent: autoregressive and linear models are highly competitive, and often outperform Transformer-based models, in several volatility-, tail-, and jump-driven environments. Second, distributional alignment matters: parametric probabilistic models such as DeepAR calibrate well in stationary settings, while flexible models can help when distributions become multimodal or sparse. Third, neural models often require more data to match simple baselines, with larger gains mainly when learning latent regimes or complex distributions. FinStressTS provides an open framework for diagnosing failure modes and advancing risk-aware forecasting.

Mengao Zhang, Jiayu Fu, Tanya Warrier et al.

Hallucination remains a critical challenge for deploying Large Language Models (LLMs) in finance. Accurate extraction and precise calculation from tabular data are essential for reliable financial analysis, since even minor numerical errors can undermine decision-making and regulatory compliance. Financial applications have unique requirements, often relying on context-dependent, numerical, and proprietary tabular data that existing hallucination benchmarks rarely capture. In this study, we develop a rigorous and scalable framework for evaluating intrinsic hallucinations in financial LLMs, conceptualized as a context-aware masked span prediction task over real-world financial documents. Our main contributions are: (1) a novel, automated dataset creation paradigm using a masking strategy; (2) a new hallucination evaluation dataset derived from S&P 500 annual reports; and (3) a comprehensive evaluation of intrinsic hallucination patterns in state-of-the-art LLMs on financial tabular data. Our work provides a robust methodology for in-house LLM evaluation and serves as a critical step toward building more trustworthy and reliable financial Generative AI systems.

Ke-Wei Huang, Mengke Qiao, Xuanqi Liu et al.

This paper proposes a new deep-learning method to construct test statistics by computer vision and metrics learning. The application highlighted in this paper is applying computer vision on Q-Q plot to construct a new test statistic for normality test. To the best of our knowledge, there is no similar application documented in the literature. Traditionally, there are two families of approaches for verifying the probability distribution of a random variable. Researchers either subjectively assess the Q-Q plot or objectively use a mathematical formula, such as Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, to formally conduct a normality test. Graphical assessment by human beings is not rigorous whereas normality test statistics may not be accurate enough when the uniformly most powerful test does not exist. It may take tens of years for statistician to develop a new test statistic that is more powerful statistically. Our proposed method integrates four components based on deep learning: an image representation learning component of a Q-Q plot, a dimension reduction component, a metrics learning component that best quantifies the differences between two Q-Q plots for normality test, and a new normality hypothesis testing process. Our experimentation results show that the machine-learning-based test statistics can outperform several widely-used traditional normality tests. This study provides convincing evidence that the proposed method could objectively create a powerful test statistic based on Q-Q plots and this method could be modified to construct many more powerful test statistics for other applications in the future.