Petra Kuhnert

Joel Janek Dabrowski, Daniel Edward Pagendam, James Hilton et al.

We apply the Physics Informed Neural Network (PINN) to the problem of wildfire fire-front modelling. We use the PINN to solve the level-set equation, which is a partial differential equation that models a fire-front through the zero-level-set of a level-set function. The result is a PINN that simulates a fire-front as it propagates through the spatio-temporal domain. We show that popular optimisation cost functions used in the literature can result in PINNs that fail to maintain temporal continuity in modelled fire-fronts when there are extreme changes in exogenous forcing variables such as wind direction. We thus propose novel additions to the optimisation cost function that improves temporal continuity under these extreme changes. Furthermore, we develop an approach to perform data assimilation within the PINN such that the PINN predictions are drawn towards observations of the fire-front. Finally, we incorporate our novel approaches into a Bayesian PINN (B-PINN) to provide uncertainty quantification in the fire-front predictions. This is significant as the standard solver, the level-set method, does not naturally offer the capability for data assimilation and uncertainty quantification. Our results show that, with our novel approaches, the B-PINN can produce accurate predictions with high quality uncertainty quantification on real-world data.

Andrew Bolt, Carolyn Huston, Petra Kuhnert et al.

Computational simulations of wildfire spread typically employ empirical rate-of-spread calculations under various conditions (such as terrain, fuel type, weather). Small perturbations in conditions can often lead to significant changes in fire spread (such as speed and direction), necessitating a computationally expensive large set of simulations to quantify uncertainty. Model emulation seeks alternative representations of physical models using machine learning, aiming to provide more efficient and/or simplified surrogate models. We propose a dedicated spatio-temporal neural network based framework for model emulation, able to capture the complex behaviour of fire spread models. The proposed approach can approximate forecasts at fine spatial and temporal resolutions that are often challenging for neural network based approaches. Furthermore, the proposed approach is robust even with small training sets, due to novel data augmentation methods. Empirical experiments show good agreement between simulated and emulated firefronts, with an average Jaccard score of 0.76.

Andrew Bolt, Joel Janek Dabrowski, Carolyn Huston et al.

Forecasting bushfire spread is an important element in fire prevention and response efforts. Empirical observations of bushfire spread can be used to estimate fire response under certain conditions. These observations form rate-of-spread models, which can be used to generate simulations. We use machine learning to drive the emulation approach for bushfires and show that emulation has the capacity to closely reproduce simulated fire-front data. We present a preliminary emulator approach with the capacity for fast emulation of complex simulations. Large numbers of predictions can then be generated as part of ensemble estimation techniques, which provide more robust and reliable forecasts of stochastic systems.

Dan MacKinlay, Russell Tsuchida, Dan Pagendam et al.

Efficient inference in high-dimensional models is a central challenge in machine learning. We introduce the Gaussian Ensemble Belief Propagation (GEnBP) algorithm, which combines the strengths of the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and Gaussian Belief Propagation (GaBP) to address this challenge. GEnBP updates ensembles of prior samples into posterior samples by passing low-rank local messages over the edges of a graphical model, enabling efficient handling of high-dimensional states, parameters, and complex, noisy, black-box generation processes. By utilizing local message passing within a graphical model structure, GEnBP effectively manages complex dependency structures and remains computationally efficient even when the ensemble size is much smaller than the inference dimension -- a common scenario in spatiotemporal modeling, image processing, and physical model inversion. We demonstrate that GEnBP can be applied to various problem structures, including data assimilation, system identification, and hierarchical models, and show through experiments that it outperforms existing belief propagation methods in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency. Supporting code is available at https://github.com/danmackinlay/GEnBP

Sarah Hartman, Cheng Soon Ong, Julia Powles et al.

This position paper argues that achieving meaningful scientific and societal advances with artificial intelligence (AI) requires a responsible, application-driven approach (RAD) to AI research. As AI is increasingly integrated into society, AI researchers must engage with the specific contexts where AI is being applied. This includes being responsive to ethical and legal considerations, technical and societal constraints, and public discourse. We present the case for RAD-AI to drive research through a three-staged approach: (1) building transdisciplinary teams and people-centred studies; (2) addressing context-specific methods, ethical commitments, assumptions, and metrics; and (3) testing and sustaining efficacy through staged testbeds and a community of practice. We present a vision for the future of application-driven AI research to unlock new value through technically feasible methods that are adaptive to the contextual needs and values of the communities they ultimately serve.

Conrad Sanderson, Emma Schleiger, David Douglas et al.

While the operationalisation of high-level AI ethics principles into practical AI/ML systems has made progress, there is still a theory-practice gap in managing tensions between the underlying AI ethics aspects. We cover five approaches for addressing the tensions via trade-offs, ranging from rudimentary to complex. The approaches differ in the types of considered context, scope, methods for measuring contexts, and degree of justification. None of the approaches is likely to be appropriate for all organisations, systems, or applications. To address this, we propose a framework which consists of: (i) proactive identification of tensions, (ii) prioritisation and weighting of ethics aspects, (iii) justification and documentation of trade-off decisions. The proposed framework aims to facilitate the implementation of well-rounded AI/ML systems that are appropriate for potential regulatory requirements.

Andrew Bolt, Conrad Sanderson, Joel Janek Dabrowski et al.

Wildfire propagation is a highly stochastic process where small changes in environmental conditions (such as wind speed and direction) can lead to large changes in observed behaviour. A traditional approach to quantify uncertainty in fire-front progression is to generate probability maps via ensembles of simulations. However, use of ensembles is typically computationally expensive, which can limit the scope of uncertainty analysis. To address this, we explore the use of a spatio-temporal neural-based modelling approach to directly estimate the likelihood of fire propagation given uncertainty in input parameters. The uncertainty is represented by deliberately perturbing the input weather forecast during model training. The computational load is concentrated in the model training process, which allows larger probability spaces to be explored during deployment. Empirical evaluations indicate that the proposed model achieves comparable fire boundaries to those produced by the traditional SPARK simulation platform, with an overall Jaccard index (similarity score) of 67.4% on a set of 35 simulated fires. When compared to a related neural model (emulator) which was employed to generate probability maps via ensembles of emulated fires, the proposed approach produces competitive Jaccard similarity scores while being approximately an order of magnitude faster.