Philip J. Marshall

Ji Won Park, Simon Birrer, Madison Ueland et al. · cambridge

We present a Bayesian graph neural network (BGNN) that can estimate the weak lensing convergence ($κ$) from photometric measurements of galaxies along a given line of sight. The method is of particular interest in strong gravitational time delay cosmography (TDC), where characterizing the "external convergence" ($κ_{\rm ext}$) from the lens environment and line of sight is necessary for precise inference of the Hubble constant ($H_0$). Starting from a large-scale simulation with a $κ$ resolution of $\sim$1$'$, we introduce fluctuations on galaxy-galaxy lensing scales of $\sim$1$''$ and extract random sightlines to train our BGNN. We then evaluate the model on test sets with varying degrees of overlap with the training distribution. For each test set of 1,000 sightlines, the BGNN infers the individual $κ$ posteriors, which we combine in a hierarchical Bayesian model to yield constraints on the hyperparameters governing the population. For a test field well sampled by the training set, the BGNN recovers the population mean of $κ$ precisely and without bias, resulting in a contribution to the $H_0$ error budget well under 1\%. In the tails of the training set with sparse samples, the BGNN, which can ingest all available information about each sightline, extracts more $κ$ signal compared to a simplified version of the traditional method based on matching galaxy number counts, which is limited by sample variance. Our hierarchical inference pipeline using BGNNs promises to improve the $κ_{\rm ext}$ characterization for precision TDC. The implementation of our pipeline is available as a public Python package, Node to Joy.

Ji Won Park, Ashley Villar, Yin Li et al.

Among the most extreme objects in the Universe, active galactic nuclei (AGN) are luminous centers of galaxies where a black hole feeds on surrounding matter. The variability patterns of the light emitted by an AGN contain information about the physical properties of the underlying black hole. Upcoming telescopes will observe over 100 million AGN in multiple broadband wavelengths, yielding a large sample of multivariate time series with long gaps and irregular sampling. We present a method that reconstructs the AGN time series and simultaneously infers the posterior probability density distribution (PDF) over the physical quantities of the black hole, including its mass and luminosity. We apply this method to a simulated dataset of 11,000 AGN and report precision and accuracy of 0.4 dex and 0.3 dex in the inferred black hole mass. This work is the first to address probabilistic time series reconstruction and parameter inference for AGN in an end-to-end fashion.