Stephen Pankavich

Paul Diaz, Paul Constantine, Kelsey Kalmbach et al.

A modified, deterministic SEIR model is developed for the 2014 Ebola epidemic occurring in the West African nations of Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. The model describes the dynamical interaction of susceptible and infected populations, while accounting for the effects of hospitalization and the spread of disease through interactions with deceased, but infectious, individuals. Using data from the World Health Organization (WHO), parameters within the model are fit to recent estimates of infected and deceased cases from each nation. The model is then analyzed using these parameter values. Finally, several metrics are proposed to determine which of these nations is in greatest need of additional resources to combat the spread of infection. These include local and global sensitivity metrics of both the infected population and the basic reproduction number with respect to rates of hospitalization and proper burial.

Michael Schmidt, Stephen Pankavich, David Benson

Current Lagrangian (particle-tracking) algorithms used to simulate diffusion-reaction equations must employ a certain number of particles to properly emulate the system dynamics---particularly for imperfectly-mixed systems. The number of particles is tied to the statistics of the initial concentration fields of the system at hand. Systems with shorter-range correlation and/or smaller concentration variance require more particles, potentially limiting the computational feasibility of the method. For the well-known problem of bimolecular reaction, we show that using kernel-based, rather than Dirac-delta, particles can significantly reduce the required number of particles. We derive the fixed width of a Gaussian kernel for a given reduced number of particles that analytically eliminates the error between kernel and Dirac solutions at any specified time. We also show how to solve for the fixed kernel size by minimizing the squared differences between solutions over any given time interval. Numerical results show that the width of the kernel should be kept below about 12% of the domain size, and that the analytic equations used to derive kernel width suffer significantly from the neglect of higher-order moments. The simulations with a kernel width given by least squares minimization perform better than those made to match at one specific time. A heuristic time-variable kernel size, based on the previous results, performs on a par with the least squares fixed kernel size.

Tyson Loudon, Stephen Pankavich

Recently, a long-term model of HIV infection dynamics was developed to describe the entire time course of the disease. It consists of a large system of ODEs with many parameters, and is expensive to simulate. In the current paper, this model is analyzed by determining all infection-free steady states and studying the local stability properties of the unique biologically-relevant equilibrium. Active subspace methods are then used to perform a global sensitivity analysis and study the dependence of an infected individual's T-cell count on the parameter space. Building on these results, a global-in-time approximation of the T-cell count is created by constructing dynamic active subspaces and reduced order models are generated, thereby allowing for inexpensive computation.

Stephen Pankavich

The one-dimensional Vlasov-Poisson system is considered and a particle method is developed to approximate solutions without compact support which tend to a fixed background of charge as $| x | \to \infty$. Such a system of equations can be used to model kinetic phenomena occurring in plasma physics, such as the solar wind. The particle method is constructed, implemented, and used to determine information regarding the time asymptotics of the electrostatic field.