Noah Schutte

Noah Schutte, Senne Berden, Tias Guns et al.

Many real-world combinatorial problems involve uncertain parameters, which can be predicted given contextual features and historical data. These `predict-then-optimize' or `contextual optimization' problems have gained significant attention: end-to-end training methods can now minimize the downstream task cost rather than the predictive error. However, despite their effectiveness, these decision-focused learning (DFL) approaches often rely on repeated solving of the underlying combinatorial optimization problem during training, making them computationally expensive and difficult to scale. We reframe the learning problem as a cost-sensitive multi-output regression problem: multi-output due to the combinatorial problem having multiple uncertain parameters, and cost-sensitive due to the downstream task cost being the real target. Our technical contribution is the formalization of multiple loss function components that follow from this reframing: cost-insensitive normalization, decision-aware asymmetric penalization of over- and underpredictions, and instance-based costs that mimic the true downstream task-based loss locally. These components require zero or one solve per training data instance, while requiring no further solves during training. Experiments show that the combination of loss components achieves comparable downstream task quality to the state of the art, while being significantly more efficient, enabling scaling to problem sizes that have not been tackled before with DFL.

Noah Schutte, Krzysztof Postek, Neil Yorke-Smith

Optimization models used to make discrete decisions often contain uncertain parameters that are context-dependent and estimated through prediction. To account for the quality of the decision made based on the prediction, decision-focused learning (end-to-end predict-then-optimize) aims at training the predictive model to minimize regret, i.e., the loss incurred by making a suboptimal decision. Despite the challenge of the gradient of this loss w.r.t. the predictive model parameters being zero almost everywhere for optimization problems with a linear objective, effective gradient-based learning approaches have been proposed to minimize the expected loss, using the empirical loss as a surrogate. However, empirical regret can be an ineffective surrogate because empirical optimal decisions can vary substantially from expected optimal decisions. To understand the impact of this deficiency, we evaluate the effect of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty on the accuracy of empirical regret as a surrogate. Next, we propose three novel loss functions that approximate expected regret more robustly. Experimental results show that training two state-of-the-art decision-focused learning approaches using robust regret losses improves test-sample empirical regret in general while keeping computational time equivalent relative to the number of training epochs.

Noah Schutte, Grigorii Veviurko, Krzysztof Postek et al.

When solving optimization problems under uncertainty with contextual data, utilizing machine learning to predict the uncertain parameters is a popular and effective approach. Decision-focused learning (DFL) aims at learning a predictive model such that decision quality, instead of prediction accuracy, is maximized. Common practice here is to predict a single value for each uncertain parameter, implicitly assuming that there exists a (single-scenario) deterministic problem approximation (proxy) that is sufficient to obtain an optimal decision. Other work assumes the opposite, where the underlying distribution needs to be estimated. However, little is known about when either choice is valid. This paper investigates for the first time problem properties that justify using either assumption. Using this, we present effective decision proxies for DFL, with very limited compromise on the complexity of the learning task. We show the effectiveness of presented approaches in experiments on problems with continuous and discrete variables, as well as uncertainty in the objective function and in the constraints.