Sizhe Ma

Liying Han, Kang Yang, Oliver Wang et al.

Large language models (LLMs) and time-series language models (TSLMs) are increasingly applied to time-series question answering (TSQA). Unlike text-only QA, TSQA requires models to ground answers in temporal signals whose patterns may occur at different scales, specific time locations, or across separated intervals. However, existing benchmarks are typically organized by task types or high-level reasoning categories, making it difficult to diagnose the underlying signal-level capabilities driving model performance. We introduce TS-Skill, a controlled benchmark for evaluating three composable analytical skills in TSQA: temporal scale selection (SK1), temporal localization (SK2), and cross-interval integration (SK3). TS-Skill provides timestamp-aware questions, broad domain coverage, and human-validated QA quality. To construct the benchmark at scale, we develop SKEvol, a skill-guided agentic framework that combines domain-aware time-series seed generation, skill-controlled question generation, metadata- and code-assisted answer construction, multi-phase signal-grounded verification, and human-in-the-loop curation. Experiments on ten state-of-the-art LLMs and TSLMs reveal substantial and uneven capability gaps across SK1-SK3. In particular, SK3 remains consistently challenging for non-agent models, whereas tool-augmented agents show a selective advantage on standalone SK3. These findings demonstrate that skill-level evaluation can uncover temporal reasoning failures that are obscured by aggregate TSQA scores.

Sizhe Ma, Katherine A. Flanigan, Mario Bergés

Recent digital advances have popularized predictive maintenance (PMx), offering enhanced efficiency, automation, accuracy, cost savings, and independence in maintenance processes. Yet, PMx continues to face numerous limitations such as poor explainability, sample inefficiency of data-driven methods, complexity of physics-based methods, and limited generalizability and scalability of knowledge-based methods. This paper proposes leveraging Digital Twins (DTs) to address these challenges and enable automated PMx adoption on a larger scale. While DTs have the potential to be transformative, they have not yet reached the maturity needed to bridge these gaps in a standardized manner. Without a standard definition guiding this evolution, the transformation lacks a solid foundation for development. This paper provides a requirement-based roadmap to support standardized PMx automation using DT technologies. Our systematic approach comprises two primary stages. First, we methodically identify the Informational Requirements (IRs) and Functional Requirements (FRs) for PMx, which serve as a foundation from which any unified framework must emerge. Our approach to defining and using IRs and FRs as the backbone of any PMx DT is supported by the proven success of these requirements as blueprints in other areas, such as product development in the software industry. Second, we conduct a thorough literature review across various fields to assess how these IRs and FRs are currently being applied within DTs, enabling us to identify specific areas where further research is needed to support the progress and maturation of requirement-based PMx DTs.

Sizhe Ma, Katherine A. Flanigan, Mario Bergés

The advancement of the Internet of Things (IoT) and Artificial Intelligence has catalyzed the evolution of Digital Twins (DTs) from conceptual ideas to more implementable realities. Yet, transitioning from academia to industry is complex due to the absence of standardized frameworks. This paper builds upon the authors' previously established functional and informational requirements supporting standardized DT development, focusing on a crucial aspect: transferability. While existing DT research primarily centers on asset transfer, the significance of "sim-to-real transfer" and "real-to-sim transfer"--transferring knowledge between simulations and real-world operations--is vital for comprehensive lifecycle management in DTs. A key challenge in this process is calibrating the "reality gap," the discrepancy between simulated predictions and actual outcomes. Our research investigates the impact of integrating a single Reality Gap Analysis (RGA) module into an existing DT framework to effectively manage both sim-to-real and real-to-sim transfers. This integration is facilitated by data pipelines that connect the RGA module with the existing components of the DT framework, including the historical repository and the simulation model. A case study on a pedestrian bridge at Carnegie Mellon University showcases the performance of different levels of integration of our approach with an existing framework. With full implementation of an RGA module and a complete data pipeline, our approach is capable of bidirectional knowledge transfer between simulations and real-world operations without compromising efficiency.

Sizhe Ma, Katherine A. Flanigan, Mario Bergés

Digital twins (DTs) enable powerful predictive analytics, but persistent discrepancies between simulations and real systems--known as the reality gap--undermine their reliability. Coined in robotics, the term now applies to DTs, where discrepancies stem from context mismatches, cross-domain interactions, and multi-scale dynamics. Among these, context mismatch is pressing and underexplored, as DT accuracy depends on capturing operational context, often only partially observable. However, DTs have a key advantage: simulators can systematically vary contextual factors and explore scenarios difficult or impossible to observe empirically, informing inference and model alignment. While sim-to-real transfer like domain adaptation shows promise in robotics, their application to DTs poses two key challenges. First, unlike one-time policy transfers, DTs require continuous calibration across an asset's lifecycle--demanding structured information flow, timely detection of out-of-sync states, and integration of historical and new data. Second, DTs often perform inverse modeling, inferring latent states or faults from observations that may reflect multiple evolving contexts. These needs strain purely data-driven models and risk violating physical consistency. Though some approaches preserve validity via reduced-order model, most domain adaptation techniques still lack such constraints. To address this, we propose a Reality Gap Analysis (RGA) module for DTs that continuously integrates new sensor data, detects misalignments, and recalibrates DTs via a query-response framework. Our approach fuses domain-adversarial deep learning with reduced-order simulator guidance to improve context inference and preserve physical consistency. We illustrate the RGA module in a structural health monitoring case study on a steel truss bridge in Pittsburgh, PA, showing faster calibration and better real-world alignment.

Sizhe Ma, Katherine A. Flanigan, Mario Bergés

In recent years, predictive maintenance (PMx) has gained prominence for its potential to enhance efficiency, automation, accuracy, and cost-effectiveness while reducing human involvement. Importantly, PMx has evolved in tandem with digital advancements, such as Big Data and the Internet of Things (IOT). These technological strides have enabled Artificial Intelligence (AI) to revolutionize PMx processes, with increasing capacities for real-time automation of monitoring, analysis, and prediction tasks. However, PMx still faces challenges such as poor explainability and sample inefficiency in data-driven methods and high complexity in physics-based models, hindering broader adoption. This paper posits that Digital Twins (DTs) can be integrated into PMx to overcome these challenges, paving the way for more automated PMx applications across various stakeholders. Despite their potential, current DTs have not fully matured to bridge existing gaps. Our paper provides a comprehensive roadmap for DT evolution, addressing current limitations to foster large-scale automated PMx progression. We structure our approach in three stages: First, we reference prior work where we identified and defined the Information Requirements (IRs) and Functional Requirements (FRs) for PMx, forming the blueprint for a unified framework. Second, we conduct a literature review to assess current DT applications integrating these IRs and FRs, revealing standardized DT models and tools that support automated PMx. Lastly, we highlight gaps in current DT implementations, particularly those IRs and FRs not fully supported, and outline the necessary components for a comprehensive, automated PMx system. Our paper concludes with research directions aimed at seamlessly integrating DTs into the PMx paradigm to achieve this ambitious vision.