Iain J. Cruickshank

Iain J. Cruickshank, Lynnette Hui Xian Ng

Stance classification, the task of predicting the viewpoint of an author on a subject of interest, has long been a focal point of research in domains ranging from social science to machine learning. Current stance detection methods rely predominantly on manual annotation of sentences, followed by training a supervised machine learning model. However, this manual annotation process requires laborious annotation effort, and thus hampers its potential to generalize across different contexts. In this work, we investigate the use of Large Language Models (LLMs) as a stance detection methodology that can reduce or even eliminate the need for manual annotations. We investigate 10 open-source models and 7 prompting schemes, finding that LLMs are competitive with in-domain supervised models but are not necessarily consistent in their performance. We also fine-tuned the LLMs, but discovered that fine-tuning process does not necessarily lead to better performance. In general, we discover that LLMs do not routinely outperform their smaller supervised machine learning models, and thus call for stance detection to be a benchmark for which LLMs also optimize for. The code used in this study is available at \url{https://github.com/ijcruic/LLM-Stance-Labeling}

Alexander M. Berenbeim, Iain J. Cruickshank, Susmit Jha et al.

Quantitative characterizations and estimations of uncertainty are of fundamental importance in optimization and decision-making processes. Herein, we propose intuitive scores, which we call certainty and doubt, that can be used in both a Bayesian and frequentist framework to assess and compare the quality and uncertainty of predictions in (multi-)classification decision machine learning problems.

Seth P. Benson, Iain J. Cruickshank

Media bias has been extensively studied by both social and computational sciences. However, current work still has a large reliance on human input and subjective assessment to label biases. This is especially true for cable news research. To address these issues, we develop an unsupervised machine learning method to characterize the bias of cable news programs without any human input. This method relies on the analysis of what topics are mentioned through Named Entity Recognition and how those topics are discussed through Stance Analysis in order to cluster programs with similar biases together. Applying our method to 2020 cable news transcripts, we find that program clusters are consistent over time and roughly correspond to the cable news network of the program. This method reveals the potential for future tools to objectively assess media bias and characterize unfamiliar media environments.

David Farr, Lynnette Hui Xian Ng, Stephen Prochaska et al.

Disinformation campaigns can distort public perception and destabilize institutions. Understanding how different populations respond to information is crucial for designing effective interventions, yet real-world experimentation is impractical and ethically challenging. To address this, we develop an agent-based simulation using Large Language Models (LLMs) to model responses to misinformation. We construct agent personas spanning five professions and three mental schemas, and evaluate their reactions to news headlines. Our findings show that LLM-generated agents align closely with ground-truth labels and human predictions, supporting their use as proxies for studying information responses. We also find that mental schemas, more than professional background, influence how agents interpret misinformation. This work provides a validation of LLMs to be used as agents in an agent-based model of an information network for analyzing trust, polarization, and susceptibility to deceptive content in complex social systems.

Lynnette Hui Xian Ng, Iain J. Cruickshank, Adrian Xuan Wei Lim et al.

Agentic AI systems are increasingly deployed not in isolation, but inside social environments populated by other agents and humans, such as in social media platforms, multi-agent LLM pipelines or autonomous robotics fleets. In these settings, system behavior emerges not from individual agents alone, but from the multi-agent interactions over time. Emergent dynamics of individuals in a social group have been long studied by social scientists in human contexts. \textbf{This position paper argues that agentic AI systems must be modeled with social theory as a structural prior, and formalizes a Multi-Agent Social Systems (MASS) framework for how agents interact and influence to generate system-level outcomes.} We represent MASS as a class of dynamical system of information generation, local influence and interaction structure, formulated by four structural priors anchored in social theory: strategic heterogeneity, networked-constrained dependence, co-evolution and distributional instability. We demonstrate the importance of each structural prior through formal propositions, and articulate a research agenda for how MASS should be modeled, evaluated and governed.

Iain J. Cruickshank, Amir Soofi, Lynnette Hui Xian Ng

Public opinion of military organizations significantly influences their ability to recruit talented individuals. As recruitment efforts increasingly extend into digital spaces like social media, it becomes essential to assess the stance of social media users toward online military content. However, there is a notable lack of data for analyzing opinions on military recruiting efforts online, compounded by challenges in stance labeling, which is crucial for understanding public perceptions. Despite the importance of stance analysis for successful online military recruitment, creating human-annotated, in-domain stance labels is resource-intensive. In this paper, we address both the challenges of stance labeling and the scarcity of data on public opinions of online military recruitment by introducing and releasing the DIVERSE dataset: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10493803. This dataset comprises all comments from the U.S. Army's official YouTube Channel videos. We employed a state-of-the-art weak supervision approach, leveraging large language models to label the stance of each comment toward its respective video and the U.S. Army. Our findings indicate that the U.S. Army's videos began attracting a significant number of comments post-2021, with the stance distribution generally balanced among supportive, oppositional, and neutral comments, with a slight skew towards oppositional versus supportive comments.

Gian Maria Campedelli, Iain J. Cruickshank, Kathleen M. Carley

Capturing dynamics of operational similarity among terrorist groups is critical to provide actionable insights for counter-terrorism and intelligence monitoring. Yet, in spite of its theoretical and practical relevance, research addressing this problem is currently lacking. We tackle this problem proposing a novel computational framework for detecting clusters of terrorist groups sharing similar behaviors, focusing on groups' yearly repertoire of deployed tactics, attacked targets, and utilized weapons. Specifically considering those organizations that have plotted at least 50 attacks from 1997 to 2018, accounting for a total of 105 groups responsible for more than 42,000 events worldwide, we offer three sets of results. First, we show that over the years global terrorism has been characterized by increasing operational cohesiveness. Second, we highlight that year-to-year stability in co-clustering among groups has been particularly high from 2009 to 2018, indicating temporal consistency of similarity patterns in the last decade. Third, we demonstrate that operational similarity between two organizations is driven by three factors: (a) their overall activity; (b) the difference in the diversity of their operational repertoires; (c) the difference in a combined measure of diversity and activity. Groups' operational preferences, geographical homophily and ideological affinity have no consistent role in determining operational similarity.

Iain J. Cruickshank, Kathleen M. Carley

The COVID-19 pandemic has produced a flurry of online activity on social media sites. As such, analysis of social media data during the COVID-19 pandemic can produce unique insights into discussion topics and how those topics evolve over the course of the pandemic. In this study, we propose analyzing discussion topics on Twitter by clustering hashtags. In order to obtain high-quality clusters of the Twitter hashtags, we also propose a novel multi-view clustering technique that incorporates multiple different data types that can be used to describe how users interact with hashtags. The results of our multi-view clustering show that there are distinct temporal and topical trends present within COVID-19 twitter discussion. In particular, we find that some topical clusters of hashtags shift over the course of the pandemic, while others are persistent throughout, and that there are distinct temporal trends in hashtag usage. This study is the first to use multi-view clustering to analyze hashtags and the first analysis of the greater trends of discussion occurring online during the COVID-19 pandemic.