Jevin West

Damian Hodel, Jevin West

In their recent Nature Human Behaviour paper, "Emergent analogical reasoning in large language models," (Webb, Holyoak, and Lu, 2023) the authors argue that "large language models such as GPT-3 have acquired an emergent ability to find zero-shot solutions to a broad range of analogy problems." In this response, we provide counterexamples of the letter string analogies. In our tests, GPT-3 fails to solve simplest variations of the original tasks, whereas human performance remains consistently high across all modified versions. Zero-shot reasoning is an extraordinary claim that requires extraordinary evidence. We do not see that evidence in our experiments. To strengthen claims of humanlike reasoning such as zero-shot reasoning, it is important that the field develop approaches that rule out data memorization.

David Farr, Lynnette Hui Xian Ng, Stephen Prochaska et al.

Disinformation campaigns can distort public perception and destabilize institutions. Understanding how different populations respond to information is crucial for designing effective interventions, yet real-world experimentation is impractical and ethically challenging. To address this, we develop an agent-based simulation using Large Language Models (LLMs) to model responses to misinformation. We construct agent personas spanning five professions and three mental schemas, and evaluate their reactions to news headlines. Our findings show that LLM-generated agents align closely with ground-truth labels and human predictions, supporting their use as proxies for studying information responses. We also find that mental schemas, more than professional background, influence how agents interpret misinformation. This work provides a validation of LLMs to be used as agents in an agent-based model of an information network for analyzing trust, polarization, and susceptibility to deceptive content in complex social systems.

Maryam Amirizaniani, Benjamin Charles Germain Lee, Jevin West et al.

Effective personalized question answering (PQA) in language models requires grounding responses in the user's underlying intent, where intent refers to the implicit ``why'' behind a query beyond its explicit wording. However, existing approaches to intent-aware personalization rely on multi-turn conversational context or rich user profiles, and do not explicitly model user intent during the reasoning process. This limits their effectiveness in single-turn settings, where the user's latent goal must be inferred from minimal input and integrated into the thinking and reasoning process. To bridge this gap, we propose IAP (Intent-Aware Personalization), a reinforcement learning framework that trains models to infer implicit user intent directly from a single-turn question and incorporate it into thinking steps through a tag-based schema for generating personalized, intent-grounded answers. By optimizing intent-aware answer trajectories under a personalized reward function, IAP reinforces generation paths that make implicit user intent explicit and produce responses that better align with the user's underlying goal. Through experiments on the LaMP-QA benchmark across six models, IAP consistently outperforms all baselines, achieving an average macro-score gain of around 7.5\% over the strongest competitor, demonstrating that modeling implicit user intent within the training objective is a promising direction for PQA.

David Farr, Nico Manzonelli, Iain Cruickshank et al.

Large language models (LLMs) have enhanced our ability to rapidly analyze and classify unstructured natural language data. However, concerns regarding cost, network limitations, and security constraints have posed challenges for their integration into work processes. In this study, we adopt a systems design approach to employing LLMs as imperfect data annotators for downstream supervised learning tasks, introducing novel system intervention measures aimed at improving classification performance. Our methodology outperforms LLM-generated labels in seven of eight tests, demonstrating an effective strategy for incorporating LLMs into the design and deployment of specialized, supervised learning models present in many industry use cases.

David Farr, Stephen Prochaska, Jack Moody et al.

Comprehending the information environment (IE) during crisis events is challenging due to the rapid change and abstract nature of the domain. Many approaches focus on snapshots via classification methods or network approaches to describe the IE in crisis, ignoring the temporal nature of how information changed over time. This work presents a system-oriented framework for modeling emerging narratives as temporally evolving semantic structures without requiring prior label specification. By integrating semantic embeddings, density-based clustering, and rolling temporal linkage, the framework represents narratives as persistent yet adaptive entities within a shared semantic space. We apply the methodology to a real-world crisis event and evaluate system behavior through stratified cluster validation and temporal lifecycle analysis. Results demonstrate high cluster coherence and reveal heterogeneous narrative lifecycles characterized by both transient fragments and stable narrative anchors. We ground our approach in situational awareness theory, supporting perception and comprehension of the IE by transforming unstructured social media streams into interpretable, temporally structured representations. The resulting system provides a methodology for monitoring and decision support in dynamic information environments.

David Farr, Iain Cruickshank, Kate Starbird et al.

Distributed agents in real-world settings frequently must coordinate under uncertainty with only partial observations. Coordination is necessary to share beliefs to aid in task completion, but communication costs bandwidth, introduces latency, and if done poorly, can degrade collective reasoning. This tension is especially acute in bandwidth-constrained deployments such as distributed sensing networks, autonomous reconnaissance, and collaborative cyber defense, where excessive transmission carries direct operational costs. Existing work has focused on multi-agent exploration and communication strategies, but not on how communication frequency and content jointly shape the collective belief state. Central to this challenge is the degree to which agents maintain compatible internal beliefs about the environment, a property we term \textit{epistemic alignment}. When agents share beliefs effectively, they converge on correct hypotheses; when communication is poorly designed, agents may converge confidently on wrong ones. We formalize this distinction and show it is not detectable from coordination metrics alone such as Jensen-Shannon Divergence or rate to consensus.

David Farr, Nico Manzonelli, Iain Cruickshank et al.

The ability of large language models (LLMs) to perform zero-shot classification makes them viable solutions for data annotation in rapidly evolving domains where quality labeled data is often scarce and costly to obtain. However, the large-scale deployment of LLMs can be prohibitively expensive. This paper introduces an LLM chain ensemble methodology that aligns multiple LLMs in a sequence, routing data subsets to subsequent models based on classification uncertainty. This approach leverages the strengths of individual LLMs within a broader system, allowing each model to handle data points where it exhibits the highest confidence, while forwarding more complex cases to potentially more robust models. Our results show that the chain ensemble method often exceeds the performance of the best individual model in the chain and achieves substantial cost savings, making LLM chain ensembles a practical and efficient solution for large-scale data annotation challenges.

David Farr, Iain Cruickshank, Nico Manzonelli et al.

Assessing classification confidence is critical for leveraging large language models (LLMs) in automated labeling tasks, especially in the sensitive domains presented by Computational Social Science (CSS) tasks. In this paper, we make three key contributions: (1) we propose an uncertainty quantification (UQ) performance measure tailored for data annotation tasks, (2) we compare, for the first time, five different UQ strategies across three distinct LLMs and CSS data annotation tasks, (3) we introduce a novel UQ aggregation strategy that effectively identifies low-confidence LLM annotations and disproportionately uncovers data incorrectly labeled by the LLMs. Our results demonstrate that our proposed UQ aggregation strategy improves upon existing methods andcan be used to significantly improve human-in-the-loop data annotation processes.

Jason Portenoy, Marissa Radensky, Jevin West et al.

Isolated silos of scientific research and the growing challenge of information overload limit awareness across the literature and hinder innovation. Algorithmic curation and recommendation, which often prioritize relevance, can further reinforce these informational "filter bubbles." In response, we describe Bridger, a system for facilitating discovery of scholars and their work. We construct a faceted representation of authors with information gleaned from their papers and inferred author personas, and use it to develop an approach that locates commonalities and contrasts between scientists to balance relevance and novelty. In studies with computer science researchers, this approach helps users discover authors considered useful for generating novel research directions. We also demonstrate an approach for displaying information about authors, boosting the ability to understand the work of new, unfamiliar scholars. Our analysis reveals that Bridger connects authors who have different citation profiles and publish in different venues, raising the prospect of bridging diverse scientific communities.

Tom Hope, Jason Portenoy, Kishore Vasan et al.

The COVID-19 pandemic has sparked unprecedented mobilization of scientists, generating a deluge of papers that makes it hard for researchers to keep track and explore new directions. Search engines are designed for targeted queries, not for discovery of connections across a corpus. In this paper, we present SciSight, a system for exploratory search of COVID-19 research integrating two key capabilities: first, exploring associations between biomedical facets automatically extracted from papers (e.g., genes, drugs, diseases, patient outcomes); second, combining textual and network information to search and visualize groups of researchers and their ties. SciSight has so far served over $15K$ users with over $42K$ page views and $13\%$ returns.

Lovenoor Aulck, Rohan Aras, Lysia Li et al.

Science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) fields play growing roles in national and international economies by driving innovation and generating high salary jobs. Yet, the US is lagging behind other highly industrialized nations in terms of STEM education and training. Furthermore, many economic forecasts predict a rising shortage of domestic STEM-trained professions in the US for years to come. One potential solution to this deficit is to decrease the rates at which students leave STEM-related fields in higher education, as currently over half of all students intending to graduate with a STEM degree eventually attrite. However, little quantitative research at scale has looked at causes of STEM attrition, let alone the use of machine learning to examine how well this phenomenon can be predicted. In this paper, we detail our efforts to model and predict dropout from STEM fields using one of the largest known datasets used for research on students at a traditional campus setting. Our results suggest that attrition from STEM fields can be accurately predicted with data that is routinely collected at universities using only information on students' first academic year. We also propose a method to model student STEM intentions for each academic term to better understand the timing of STEM attrition events. We believe these results show great promise in using machine learning to improve STEM retention in traditional and non-traditional campus settings.

Lovenoor Aulck, Nishant Velagapudi, Joshua Blumenstock et al.

Each year, roughly 30% of first-year students at US baccalaureate institutions do not return for their second year and over $9 billion is spent educating these students. Yet, little quantitative research has analyzed the causes and possible remedies for student attrition. Here, we describe initial efforts to model student dropout using the largest known dataset on higher education attrition, which tracks over 32,500 students' demographics and transcript records at one of the nation's largest public universities. Our results highlight several early indicators of student attrition and show that dropout can be accurately predicted even when predictions are based on a single term of academic transcript data. These results highlight the potential for machine learning to have an impact on student retention and success while pointing to several promising directions for future work.