Yuming Ba

Yuming Ba, Lijian Jiang, Na Ou

Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been widely used in state estimation and parameter estimation for the dynamic system where observational data is obtained sequentially in time. To reduce uncertainty and accelerate posterior inference, a two-stage ensemble Kalman filter is presented to improve the sequential analysis of EnKF. It is known that the final posterior ensemble may be concentrated in a small portion of the entire support of the initial prior ensemble. It will be much more efficient if we first build a new prior by some partial observations, and construct a surrogate only over the significant region of the new prior. To this end, we construct a very coarse model using generalized multiscale finite element method (GMsFEM) and generate a new prior ensemble in the first stage. GMsFEM provides a set of hierarchical multiscale basis functions supported in coarse blocks. This gives flexibility and adaptivity to choosing degree of freedoms to construct a reduce model. In the second stage, we build an initial surrogate model based on the new prior by using GMsFEM and sparse generalized polynomial chaos (gPC)-based stochastic collocation methods. To improve the initial surrogate model, we dynamically update the surrogate model, which is adapted to the sequential availability of data and the updated analysis. The two-stage EnKF can achieve a better estimation than standard EnKF, and significantly improve the efficiency to update the ensemble analysis (posterior exploration). To enhance the applicability and flexibility in Bayesian inverse problems, we extend the two-stage EnKF to non-Gaussian models and hierarchical models. In the paper, we focus on the time fractional diffusion-wave models in porous media and investigate their Bayesian inverse problems using the proposed two-stage EnKF.

Yuming Ba, Lijian Jiang

In the paper, we develop an ensemble-based implicit sampling method for Bayesian inverse problems. For Bayesian inference, the iterative ensemble smoother (IES) and implicit sampling are integrated to obtain importance ensemble samples, which build an importance density. The proposed method shares a similar idea to importance sampling. IES is used to approximate mean and covariance of a posterior distribution. This provides the MAP point and the inverse of Hessian matrix, which are necessary to construct the implicit map in implicit sampling. The importance samples are generated by the implicit map and the corresponding weights are the ratio between the importance density and posterior density. In the proposed method, we use the ensemble samples of IES to find the optimization solution of likelihood function and the inverse of Hessian matrix. This approach avoids the explicit computation for Jacobian matrix and Hessian matrix, which are very computationally expensive in high dimension spaces. To treat non-Gaussian models, discrete cosine transform and Gaussian mixture model are used to characterize the non-Gaussian priors. The ensemble-based implicit sampling method is extended to the non-Gaussian priors for exploring the posterior of unknowns in inverse problems. The proposed method is used for each individual Gaussian model in the Gaussian mixture model. The proposed approach substantially improves the applicability of implicit sampling method. A few numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method with applications of inverse problems for subsurface flow problems and anomalous diffusion models in porous media.