Achilleas Anastasopoulos

Deepanshu Vasal, Abhinav Sinha, Achilleas Anastasopoulos

We consider finite-horizon and infinite-horizon versions of a dynamic game with $N$ selfish players who observe their types privately and take actions that are publicly observed. Players' types evolve as conditionally independent Markov processes, conditioned on their current actions. Their actions and types jointly determine their instantaneous rewards. In dynamic games with asymmetric information, a widely used concept of equilibrium is perfect Bayesian equilibrium (PBE), which consists of a strategy and belief pair that simultaneously satisfy sequential rationality and belief consistency. In general, there does not exist a universal algorithm that decouples the interdependence of strategies and beliefs over time in calculating PBE. In this paper, for the finite-horizon game with independent types we develop a two-step backward-forward recursive algorithm that sequentially decomposes the problem (w.r.t. time) to obtain a subset of PBEs, which we refer to as structured Bayesian perfect equilibria (SPBE). In such equilibria, a player's strategy depends on its history only through a common public belief and its current private type. The backward recursive part of this algorithm defines an equilibrium generating function. Each period in the backward recursion involves solving a fixed-point equation on the space of probability simplexes for every possible belief on types. Using this function, equilibrium strategies and beliefs are generated through a forward recursion. We then extend this methodology to the infinite-horizon model, where we propose a time-invariant single-shot fixed-point equation, which in conjunction with a forward recursive step, generates the SPBE. Sufficient conditions for the existence of SPBE are provided. With our proposed method, we find equilibria that exhibit signaling behavior. This is illustrated with the help of a concrete public goods example.

Deepanshu Vasal, Achilleas Anastasopoulos

We consider a finite horizon dynamic game with two players who observe their types privately and take actions, which are publicly observed. Players' types evolve as independent, controlled linear Gaussian processes and players incur quadratic instantaneous costs. This forms a dynamic linear quadratic Gaussian (LQG) game with asymmetric information. We show that under certain conditions, players' strategies that are linear in their private types, together with Gaussian beliefs form a perfect Bayesian equilibrium (PBE) of the game. Furthermore, it is shown that this is a signaling equilibrium due to the fact that future beliefs on players' types are affected by the equilibrium strategies. We provide a backward-forward algorithm to find the PBE. Each step of the backward algorithm reduces to solving an algebraic matrix equation for every possible realization of the state estimate covariance matrix. The forward algorithm consists of Kalman filter recursions, where state estimate covariance matrices depend on equilibrium strategies.

Dipankar Maity, Achilleas Anastasopoulos, John S. Baras

In this work we consider a stochastic linear quadratic two-player game. The state measurements are observed through a switched noiseless communication link. Each player incurs a finite cost every time the link is established to get measurements. Along with the usual control action, each player is equipped with a switching action to control the communication link. The measurements help to improve the estimate and hence reduce the quadratic cost but at the same time the cost is increased due to switching. We study the subgame perfect equilibrium control and switching strategies for the players. We show that the problem can be solved in a two-step process by solving two dynamic programming problems. The first step corresponds to solving a dynamic programming for the control strategy and the second step solves another dynamic programming for the switching strategy

Deepanshu Vasal, Achilleas Anastasopoulos

We study the problem of Bayesian learning in a dynamical system involving strategic agents with asymmetric information. In a series of seminal papers in the literature, this problem has been investigated under a simplifying model where myopically selfish players appear sequentially and act once in the game, based on private noisy observations of the system state and public observation of past players' actions. It has been shown that there exist information cascades where users discard their private information and mimic the action of their predecessor. In this paper, we provide a framework for studying Bayesian learning dynamics in a more general setting than the one described above. In particular, our model incorporates cases where players are non-myopic and strategically participate for the whole duration of the game, and cases where an endogenous process selects which subset of players will act at each time instance. The proposed framework hinges on a sequential decomposition methodology for finding structured perfect Bayesian equilibria (PBE) of a general class of dynamic games with asymmetric information, where user-specific states evolve as conditionally independent Markov processes and users make independent noisy observations of their states. Using this methodology, we study a specific dynamic learning model where players make decisions about public investment based on their estimates of everyone's types. We characterize a set of informational cascades for this problem where learning stops for the team as a whole. We show that in such cascades, all players' estimates of other players' types freeze even though each individual player asymptotically learns its own true type.

Deepanshu Vasal, Vijay Subramanian, Achilleas Anastasopoulos

We consider the problem of how strategic users with asymmetric information can learn an underlying time varying state in a user-recommendation system. Users who observe private signals about the state, sequentially make a decision about buying a product whose value varies with time in an ergodic manner. We formulate the team problem as an instance of decentralized stochastic control problem and characterize its optimal policies. With strategic users, we design incentives such that users reveal their true private signals, so that the gap between the strategic and team objective is small and the overall expected incentive payments are also small.