Tim Althoff

Margaret Li, Suchin Gururangan, Tim Dettmers et al. · allen-ai, uw

We present Branch-Train-Merge (BTM), a communication-efficient algorithm for embarrassingly parallel training of large language models (LLMs). We show it is possible to independently train subparts of a new class of LLMs on different subsets of the data, eliminating the massive multi-node synchronization currently required to train LLMs. BTM learns a set of independent expert LMs (ELMs), each specialized to a different textual domain, such as scientific or legal text. These ELMs can be added and removed to update data coverage, ensembled to generalize to new domains, or averaged to collapse back to a single LM for efficient inference. New ELMs are learned by branching from (mixtures of) ELMs in the current set, further training the parameters on data for the new domain, and then merging the resulting model back into the set for future use. Experiments show that BTM improves in- and out-of-domain perplexities as compared to GPT-style Transformer LMs, when controlling for training cost. Through extensive analysis, we show that these results are robust to different ELM initialization schemes, but require expert domain specialization; LM ensembles with random data splits do not perform well. We also present a study of scaling BTM into a new corpus of 64 domains (192B whitespace-separated tokens in total); the resulting LM (22.4B total parameters) performs as well as a Transformer LM trained with 2.5 times more compute. These gains grow with the number of domains, suggesting more aggressive parallelism could be used to efficiently train larger models in future work.

Suchin Gururangan, Margaret Li, Mike Lewis et al. · allen-ai, uw

Large language models are typically trained densely: all parameters are updated with respect to all inputs. This requires synchronization of billions of parameters across thousands of GPUs. We introduce a simple but effective method to asynchronously train large, sparse language models on arbitrary text corpora. Our method clusters a corpus into sets of related documents, trains a separate expert language model on each cluster, and combines them in a sparse ensemble for inference. This approach generalizes embarrassingly parallel training by automatically discovering the domains for each expert, and eliminates nearly all the communication overhead of existing sparse language models. Our technique outperforms dense baselines on multiple corpora and few-shot tasks, and our analysis shows that specializing experts to meaningful clusters is key to these gains. Performance also improves with the number of experts and size of training data, suggesting this is a highly efficient and accessible approach to training large language models.

Xuhai Xu, Han Zhang, Yasaman Sefidgar et al. · uw

Recent research has demonstrated the capability of behavior signals captured by smartphones and wearables for longitudinal behavior modeling. However, there is a lack of a comprehensive public dataset that serves as an open testbed for fair comparison among algorithms. Moreover, prior studies mainly evaluate algorithms using data from a single population within a short period, without measuring the cross-dataset generalizability of these algorithms. We present the first multi-year passive sensing datasets, containing over 700 user-years and 497 unique users' data collected from mobile and wearable sensors, together with a wide range of well-being metrics. Our datasets can support multiple cross-dataset evaluations of behavior modeling algorithms' generalizability across different users and years. As a starting point, we provide the benchmark results of 18 algorithms on the task of depression detection. Our results indicate that both prior depression detection algorithms and domain generalization techniques show potential but need further research to achieve adequate cross-dataset generalizability. We envision our multi-year datasets can support the ML community in developing generalizable longitudinal behavior modeling algorithms.

Ashish Sharma, Inna W. Lin, Adam S. Miner et al. · uw

Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) are enabling systems that augment and collaborate with humans to perform simple, mechanistic tasks like scheduling meetings and grammar-checking text. However, such Human-AI collaboration poses challenges for more complex, creative tasks, such as carrying out empathic conversations, due to difficulties of AI systems in understanding complex human emotions and the open-ended nature of these tasks. Here, we focus on peer-to-peer mental health support, a setting in which empathy is critical for success, and examine how AI can collaborate with humans to facilitate peer empathy during textual, online supportive conversations. We develop Hailey, an AI-in-the-loop agent that provides just-in-time feedback to help participants who provide support (peer supporters) respond more empathically to those seeking help (support seekers). We evaluate Hailey in a non-clinical randomized controlled trial with real-world peer supporters on TalkLife (N=300), a large online peer-to-peer support platform. We show that our Human-AI collaboration approach leads to a 19.60% increase in conversational empathy between peers overall. Furthermore, we find a larger 38.88% increase in empathy within the subsample of peer supporters who self-identify as experiencing difficulty providing support. We systematically analyze the Human-AI collaboration patterns and find that peer supporters are able to use the AI feedback both directly and indirectly without becoming overly reliant on AI while reporting improved self-efficacy post-feedback. Our findings demonstrate the potential of feedback-driven, AI-in-the-loop writing systems to empower humans in open-ended, social, creative tasks such as empathic conversations.

Inna Wanyin Lin, Lucille Njoo, Anjalie Field et al. · uw

Mental health stigma prevents many individuals from receiving the appropriate care, and social psychology studies have shown that mental health tends to be overlooked in men. In this work, we investigate gendered mental health stigma in masked language models. In doing so, we operationalize mental health stigma by developing a framework grounded in psychology research: we use clinical psychology literature to curate prompts, then evaluate the models' propensity to generate gendered words. We find that masked language models capture societal stigma about gender in mental health: models are consistently more likely to predict female subjects than male in sentences about having a mental health condition (32% vs. 19%), and this disparity is exacerbated for sentences that indicate treatment-seeking behavior. Furthermore, we find that different models capture dimensions of stigma differently for men and women, associating stereotypes like anger, blame, and pity more with women with mental health conditions than with men. In showing the complex nuances of models' gendered mental health stigma, we demonstrate that context and overlapping dimensions of identity are important considerations when assessing computational models' social biases.

Mike A. Merrill, Tim Althoff · uw

Detailed mobile sensing data from phones, watches, and fitness trackers offer an unparalleled opportunity to quantify and act upon previously unmeasurable behavioral changes in order to improve individual health and accelerate responses to emerging diseases. Unlike in natural language processing and computer vision, deep representation learning has yet to broadly impact this domain, in which the vast majority of research and clinical applications still rely on manually defined features and boosted tree models or even forgo predictive modeling altogether due to insufficient accuracy. This is due to unique challenges in the behavioral health domain, including very small datasets (~10^1 participants), which frequently contain missing data, consist of long time series with critical long-range dependencies (length>10^4), and extreme class imbalances (>10^3:1). Here, we introduce a neural architecture for multivariate time series classification designed to address these unique domain challenges. Our proposed behavioral representation learning approach combines novel tasks for self-supervised pretraining and transfer learning to address data scarcity, and captures long-range dependencies across long-history time series through transformer self-attention following convolutional neural network-based dimensionality reduction. We propose an evaluation framework aimed at reflecting expected real-world performance in plausible deployment scenarios. Concretely, we demonstrate (1) performance improvements over baselines of up to 0.15 ROC AUC across five prediction tasks, (2) transfer learning-induced performance improvements of 16% PR AUC in small data scenarios, and (3) the potential of transfer learning in novel disease scenarios through an exploratory case study of zero-shot COVID-19 prediction in an independent data set. Finally, we discuss potential implications for medical surveillance testing.

Ashish Sharma, Kevin Rushton, Inna Wanyin Lin et al. · uw

Self-guided mental health interventions, such as "do-it-yourself" tools to learn and practice coping strategies, show great promise to improve access to mental health care. However, these interventions are often cognitively demanding and emotionally triggering, creating accessibility barriers that limit their wide-scale implementation and adoption. In this paper, we study how human-language model interaction can support self-guided mental health interventions. We take cognitive restructuring, an evidence-based therapeutic technique to overcome negative thinking, as a case study. In an IRB-approved randomized field study on a large mental health website with 15,531 participants, we design and evaluate a system that uses language models to support people through various steps of cognitive restructuring. Our findings reveal that our system positively impacts emotional intensity for 67% of participants and helps 65% overcome negative thoughts. Although adolescents report relatively worse outcomes, we find that tailored interventions that simplify language model generations improve overall effectiveness and equity.

Galen Weld, Carl Pearson, Bradley Spahn et al. · uw

Sense of Community (SOC) is vital to individual and collective well-being. Although social interactions have moved increasingly online, still little is known about the specific relationships between the nature of these interactions and Sense of Virtual Community (SOVC). This study addresses this gap by exploring how conversational structure and linguistic style predict SOVC in online communities, using a large-scale survey of 2,826 Reddit users across 281 varied subreddits. We develop a hierarchical model to predict self-reported SOVC based on automatically quantifiable and highly generalizable features that are agnostic to community topic and that describe both individual users and entire communities. We identify specific interaction patterns (e.g., reciprocal reply chains, use of prosocial language) associated with stronger communities and identify three primary dimensions of SOVC within Reddit -- Membership & Belonging, Cooperation & Shared Values, and Connection & Influence. This study provides the first quantitative evidence linking patterns of social interaction to SOVC and highlights actionable strategies for fostering stronger community attachment, using an approach that can generalize readily across community topics, languages, and platforms. These insights offer theoretical implications for the study of online communities and practical suggestions for the design of features to help more individuals experience the positive benefits of online community participation.

Yubin Kim, Salman Rahman, Samuel Schmidgall et al.

Scientific discovery in digital health requires converting continuous physiological signals from wearable devices into clinically actionable biomarkers. We introduce CoDaS (AI Co-Data-Scientist), a multi-agent system that structures biomarker discovery as an iterative process combining hypothesis generation, statistical analysis, adversarial validation, and literature-grounded reasoning with human oversight using large-scale wearable datasets. Across three cohorts totaling 9,279 participant-observations, CoDaS identified 41 candidate digital biomarkers for mental health and 25 for metabolic outcomes, each subjected to an internal validation battery spanning replication, stability, robustness, and discriminative power. Across two independent depression cohorts, CoDaS surfaced circadian instability-related features in both datasets, reflected in sleep duration variability (DWB, ρ= 0.252, p < 0.001) and sleep onset variability (GLOBEM, ρ= 0.126, p < 0.001). In a metabolic cohort, CoDaS derived a cardiovascular fitness index (steps/resting heart rate; ρ= -0.374, p < 0.001), and recovered established clinical associations, including the hepatic function ratio (AST/ALT; ρ= -0.375, p < 0.001), a known correlate of insulin resistance. Incorporating CoDaS-derived features alongside demographic variables led to modest but consistent improvements in predictive performance, with cross-validated ΔR^2 increases of 0.040 for depression and 0.021 for insulin resistance. These findings suggest that CoDaS enables systematic and traceable hypothesis generation and prioritization for biomarker discovery from large-scale wearable data.

Ken Gu, Ruoxi Shang, Ruien Jiang et al. · uw

Data-driven scientific discovery requires the iterative integration of scientific domain knowledge, statistical expertise, and an understanding of data semantics to make nuanced analytical decisions, e.g., about which variables, transformations, and statistical models to consider. LM-based agents equipped with planning, memory, and code execution capabilities have the potential to support data-driven science. However, evaluating agents on such open-ended tasks is challenging due to multiple valid approaches, partially correct steps, and different ways to express the same decisions. To address these challenges, we present BLADE, a benchmark to automatically evaluate agents' multifaceted approaches to open-ended research questions. BLADE consists of 12 datasets and research questions drawn from existing scientific literature, with ground truth collected from independent analyses by expert data scientists and researchers. To automatically evaluate agent responses, we developed corresponding computational methods to match different representations of analyses to this ground truth. Though language models possess considerable world knowledge, our evaluation shows that they are often limited to basic analyses. However, agents capable of interacting with the underlying data demonstrate improved, but still non-optimal, diversity in their analytical decision making. Our work enables the evaluation of agents for data-driven science and provides researchers deeper insights into agents' analysis approaches.

Hiba Arnaout, Anmol Goel, H. Andrew Schwartz et al.

Although artificial intelligence (AI) shows growing promise for mental health care, current approaches to evaluating AI tools in this domain remain fragmented and poorly aligned with clinical practice, social context, and first-hand user experience. This paper argues for a rethinking of responsible evaluation -- what is measured, by whom, and for what purpose -- by introducing an interdisciplinary framework that integrates clinical soundness, social context, and equity, providing a structured basis for evaluation. Through an analysis of 135 recent *CL publications, we identify recurring limitations, including over-reliance on generic metrics that do not capture clinical validity, therapeutic appropriateness, or user experience, limited participation from mental health professionals, and insufficient attention to safety and equity. To address these gaps, we propose a taxonomy of AI mental health support types -- assessment-, intervention-, and information synthesis-oriented -- each with distinct risks and evaluative requirements, and illustrate its use through case studies.

Mike A. Merrill, Mingtian Tan, Vinayak Gupta et al.

Time series are critical for decision-making in fields like finance and healthcare. Their importance has driven a recent influx of works passing time series into language models, leading to non-trivial forecasting on some datasets. But it remains unknown whether non-trivial forecasting implies that language models can reason about time series. To address this gap, we generate a first-of-its-kind evaluation framework for time series reasoning, including formal tasks and a corresponding dataset of multi-scale time series paired with text captions across ten domains. Using these data, we probe whether language models achieve three forms of reasoning: (1) Etiological Reasoning - given an input time series, can the language model identify the scenario that most likely created it? (2) Question Answering - can a language model answer factual questions about time series? (3) Context-Aided Forecasting - does highly relevant textual context improve a language model's time series forecasts? We find that otherwise highly-capable language models demonstrate surprisingly limited time series reasoning: they score marginally above random on etiological and question answering tasks (up to 30 percentage points worse than humans) and show modest success in using context to improve forecasting. These weakness showcase that time series reasoning is an impactful, yet deeply underdeveloped direction for language model research. We also make our datasets and code public at to support further research in this direction at https://github.com/behavioral-data/TSandLanguage

Girish Narayanswamy, Maxwell A. Xu, A. Ali Heydari et al.

While ubiquitous wearable sensors capture a wealth of behavioral and physiological information, effectively transforming these signals into personalized health insights is challenging. Specifically, converting low-level sensor data into representations capable of characterizing higher-level states is difficult due to high phenotypic diversity and variation in individual baseline health, physiology, and lifestyle factors. Moreover, collecting wearable data paired with health outcome annotations is laborious and expensive, and retrospective annotation remains practically unfeasible, contributing to a scarcity of data with high-quality labels. To overcome these limitations, we propose a foundation model for wearable health that is pretrained on more than one trillion minutes of unlabeled sensor signals drawn from a large cohort of five million participants. We demonstrate that the joint scaling of model capacity and pretraining data volume leads to systematic improvements in performance, as evaluated on a diverse set of 35 health prediction tasks, spanning cardiovascular, metabolic, sleep, and mental health, as well as lifestyle choices and demographic factors. We find that this population scale representation unlocks label-efficient few-shot learning and generative capabilities for robust daily metric estimation. To further leverage this learned representation, we deploy a classroom of LLM agents to autonomously search the space of downstream predictive heads built on the model embeddings, showing broad performance improvements that increase with LLM model capacity. Finally, we show how integrating these downstream predictors into a Personal Health Agent can support model responses that are more relevant, contextually aware, and safe, and we validate this via 1,860 ratings from a cohort of clinicians.

Inna Wanyin Lin, Sahand Sabour, Hong Sng et al.

Clinicians are expected to disclose harmful medical errors to patients and families in line with ethical, regulatory, and patient care standards, yet these conversations remain challenging because of their emotional complexity and limited training opportunities. Most physicians still learn primarily through lectures and observation, while static video tools-though available-are underused, lack adaptability across specialties, and deliver delayed, generic feedback. These gaps restrict skill development, reduce self-efficacy, and contribute to avoidance of disclosure conversations, ultimately compromising patient care and eroding trust. To address these needs, we designed CandorMD -- an AI-assisted simulation system that provides real-time practice, actionable feedback, and diverse practice environments tailored to individual learning needs. We conducted semi-structured interviews with physicians, risk managers, patient advocates, and communication experts to understand current practices, identify gaps, and collect feedback on CandorMD. Based on these insights, we present findings and design recommendations for the future of AI-supported medical communication training.

Yubin Kim, Ken Gu, Chanwoo Park et al.

Agents, language model (LM)-based systems that are capable of reasoning, planning, and acting are becoming the dominant paradigm for real-world AI applications. Despite this widespread adoption, the principles that determine their performance remain underexplored, leaving practitioners to rely on heuristics rather than principled design choices. We address this gap by deriving quantitative scaling principles for agent systems. We evaluate this across four diverse benchmarks: Finance-Agent, BrowseComp-Plus, PlanCraft, and Workbench. Using five canonical architectures (Single, Independent, Centralized, Decentralized, Hybrid) instantiated across three LLM families, we perform a controlled evaluation spanning 180 configurations with standardized tools and token budgets. We derive a predictive model using empirical coordination metrics, including efficiency, overhead, error amplification, and redundancy, that achieves cross-validated R^2=0.513. We identify three dominant effects: (1) a tool-coordination trade-off: under fixed computational budgets, tool-heavy tasks suffer disproportionately from multi-agent overhead. (2) a capability saturation: coordination yields diminishing or negative returns (beta=-0.408, p<0.001) once single-agent baselines exceed ~45%. (3) topology-dependent error amplification: independent agents amplify errors 17.2x through unchecked propagation, while centralized coordination contains this to 4.4x. Centralized coordination improves performance by 80.9% on parallelizable tasks like financial reasoning, while decentralized coordination excels on dynamic web navigation (+9.2% vs. +0.2%). Yet for sequential reasoning tasks, all multi-agent variants degraded performance by 39-70%. The framework predicts the optimal coordination strategy for 87% of held-out configurations, providing a predictive principle of agentic scaling based on measurable task properties.

Mingtian Tan, Mike A. Merrill, Zack Gottesman et al.

Time series data measure how environments change over time and drive decision-making in critical domains like finance and healthcare. A common goal in analyzing time series data is to understand the underlying events that cause the observed variations. We conduct the first study of whether Large Language Models (LLMs) can infer events described with natural language from time series data. We evaluate 18 LLMs on a task to match event sequences with real-valued time series data using a new benchmark we develop using sports data. Several current LLMs demonstrate promising abilities, with OpenAI's o1 performing the best but with DS-R1-distill-Qwen-32B outperforming proprietary models such as GPT-4o. From insights derived from analyzing reasoning failures, we also find clear avenues to improve performance. By applying post-training optimizations, i.e., distillation and self-improvement, we significantly enhance the performance of the Qwen2.5 1.5B, achieving results second only to o1. All resources needed to reproduce our work are available: https://github.com/BennyTMT/GAMETime

Marwa Abdulhai, Ryan Cheng, Donovan Clay et al.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used to simulate human users in interactive settings such as therapy, education, and social role-play. While these simulations enable scalable training and evaluation of AI agents, off-the-shelf LLMs often drift from their assigned personas, contradict earlier statements, or abandon role-appropriate behavior. We introduce a unified framework for evaluating and improving persona consistency in LLM-generated dialogue. We define three automatic metrics: prompt-to-line consistency, line-to-line consistency, and Q&A consistency, that capture different types of persona drift and validate each against human annotations. Using these metrics as reward signals, we apply multi-turn reinforcement learning to fine-tune LLMs for three user roles: a patient, a student, and a social chat partner. Our method reduces inconsistency by over 55%, resulting in more coherent and faithful simulated users.

Taylor Sorensen, Jared Moore, Jillian Fisher et al. · uw

With increased power and prevalence of AI systems, it is ever more critical that AI systems are designed to serve all, i.e., people with diverse values and perspectives. However, aligning models to serve pluralistic human values remains an open research question. In this piece, we propose a roadmap to pluralistic alignment, specifically using language models as a test bed. We identify and formalize three possible ways to define and operationalize pluralism in AI systems: 1) Overton pluralistic models that present a spectrum of reasonable responses; 2) Steerably pluralistic models that can steer to reflect certain perspectives; and 3) Distributionally pluralistic models that are well-calibrated to a given population in distribution. We also formalize and discuss three possible classes of pluralistic benchmarks: 1) Multi-objective benchmarks, 2) Trade-off steerable benchmarks, which incentivize models to steer to arbitrary trade-offs, and 3) Jury-pluralistic benchmarks which explicitly model diverse human ratings. We use this framework to argue that current alignment techniques may be fundamentally limited for pluralistic AI; indeed, we highlight empirical evidence, both from our own experiments and from other work, that standard alignment procedures might reduce distributional pluralism in models, motivating the need for further research on pluralistic alignment.

Chu Li, Zhihan Zhang, Michael Saugstad et al.

Crowdsourcing platforms have transformed distributed problem-solving, yet quality control remains a persistent challenge. Traditional quality control measures, such as prescreening workers and refining instructions, often focus solely on optimizing economic output. This paper explores just-in-time AI interventions to enhance both labeling quality and domain-specific knowledge among crowdworkers. We introduce LabelAId, an advanced inference model combining Programmatic Weak Supervision (PWS) with FT-Transformers to infer label correctness based on user behavior and domain knowledge. Our technical evaluation shows that our LabelAId pipeline consistently outperforms state-of-the-art ML baselines, improving mistake inference accuracy by 36.7% with 50 downstream samples. We then implemented LabelAId into Project Sidewalk, an open-source crowdsourcing platform for urban accessibility. A between-subjects study with 34 participants demonstrates that LabelAId significantly enhances label precision without compromising efficiency while also increasing labeler confidence. We discuss LabelAId's success factors, limitations, and its generalizability to other crowdsourced science domains.

Yu Ying Chiu, Ashish Sharma, Inna Wanyin Lin et al. · uw

The emergence of large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT has increased interest in their use as therapists to address mental health challenges and the widespread lack of access to care. However, experts have emphasized the critical need for systematic evaluation of LLM-based mental health interventions to accurately assess their capabilities and limitations. Here, we propose BOLT, a proof-of-concept computational framework to systematically assess the conversational behavior of LLM therapists. We quantitatively measure LLM behavior across 13 psychotherapeutic approaches with in-context learning methods. Then, we compare the behavior of LLMs against high- and low-quality human therapy. Our analysis based on Motivational Interviewing therapy reveals that LLMs often resemble behaviors more commonly exhibited in low-quality therapy rather than high-quality therapy, such as offering a higher degree of problem-solving advice when clients share emotions. However, unlike low-quality therapy, LLMs reflect significantly more upon clients' needs and strengths. Our findings caution that LLM therapists still require further research for consistent, high-quality care.

Girish Narayanswamy, Xin Liu, Kumar Ayush et al.

Wearable sensors have become ubiquitous thanks to a variety of health tracking features. The resulting continuous and longitudinal measurements from everyday life generate large volumes of data; however, making sense of these observations for scientific and actionable insights is non-trivial. Inspired by the empirical success of generative modeling, where large neural networks learn powerful representations from vast amounts of text, image, video, or audio data, we investigate the scaling properties of sensor foundation models across compute, data, and model size. Using a dataset of up to 40 million hours of in-situ heart rate, heart rate variability, electrodermal activity, accelerometer, skin temperature, and altimeter per-minute data from over 165,000 people, we create LSM, a multimodal foundation model built on the largest wearable-signals dataset with the most extensive range of sensor modalities to date. Our results establish the scaling laws of LSM for tasks such as imputation, interpolation and extrapolation, both across time and sensor modalities. Moreover, we highlight how LSM enables sample-efficient downstream learning for tasks like exercise and activity recognition.

Inna Wanyin Lin, Ashish Sharma, Christopher Michael Rytting et al. · uw

Navigating certain communication situations can be challenging due to individuals' lack of skills and the interference of strong emotions. However, effective learning opportunities are rarely accessible. In this work, we conduct a human-centered study that uses language models to simulate bespoke communication training and provide just-in-time feedback to support the practice and learning of interpersonal effectiveness skills. We apply the interpersonal effectiveness framework from Dialectical Behavioral Therapy (DBT), DEAR MAN, which focuses on both conversational and emotional skills. We present IMBUE, an interactive training system that provides feedback 25% more similar to experts' feedback, compared to that generated by GPT-4. IMBUE is the first to focus on communication skills and emotion management simultaneously, incorporate experts' domain knowledge in providing feedback, and be grounded in psychology theory. Through a randomized trial of 86 participants, we find that IMBUE's simulation-only variant significantly improves participants' self-efficacy (up to 17%) and reduces negative emotions (up to 25%). With IMBUE's additional just-in-time feedback, participants demonstrate 17% improvement in skill mastery, along with greater enhancements in self-efficacy (27% more) and reduction of negative emotions (16% more) compared to simulation-only. The improvement in skill mastery is the only measure that is transferred to new and more difficult situations; situation specific training is necessary for improving self-efficacy and emotion reduction.

Sahand Sabour, June M. Liu, Siyang Liu et al.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems are increasingly intertwined with daily life, assisting users in executing various tasks and providing guidance on decision-making. This integration introduces risks of AI-driven manipulation, where such systems may exploit users' cognitive biases and emotional vulnerabilities to steer them toward harmful outcomes. Through a randomized controlled trial with 233 participants, we examined human susceptibility to such manipulation in financial (e.g., purchases) and emotional (e.g., conflict resolution) decision-making contexts. Participants interacted with one of three AI agents: a neutral agent (NA) optimizing for user benefit without explicit influence, a manipulative agent (MA) designed to covertly influence beliefs and behaviors, or a strategy-enhanced manipulative agent (SEMA) employing explicit psychological tactics to reach its hidden objectives. By analyzing participants' decision patterns and shifts in their preference ratings post-interaction, we found significant susceptibility to AI-driven manipulation. Particularly, across both decision-making domains, participants interacting with the manipulative agents shifted toward harmful options at substantially higher rates (financial, MA: 62.3%, SEMA: 59.6%; emotional, MA: 42.3%, SEMA: 41.5%) compared to the NA group (financial, 35.8%; emotional, 12.8%). Notably, our findings reveal that even subtle manipulative objectives (MA) can be as effective as employing explicit psychological strategies (SEMA) in swaying human decision-making. By revealing the potential for covert AI influence, this study highlights a critical vulnerability in human-AI interactions, emphasizing the need for ethical safeguards and regulatory frameworks to ensure responsible deployment of AI technologies and protect human autonomy.

Mickel Liu, Liwei Jiang, Yancheng Liang et al.

Conventional language model (LM) safety alignment relies on a reactive, disjoint procedure: attackers exploit a static model, followed by defensive fine-tuning to patch exposed vulnerabilities. This sequential approach creates a mismatch -- attackers overfit to obsolete defenses, while defenders perpetually lag behind emerging threats. To address this, we propose Self-RedTeam, an online self-play reinforcement learning algorithm where an attacker and defender agent co-evolve through continuous interaction. We cast safety alignment as a two-player zero-sum game, where a single model alternates between attacker and defender roles -- generating adversarial prompts and safeguarding against them -- while a reward LM adjudicates outcomes. This enables dynamic co-adaptation. Grounded in the game-theoretic framework of zero-sum games, we establish a theoretical safety guarantee which motivates the design of our method: if self-play converges to a Nash Equilibrium, the defender will reliably produce safe responses to any adversarial input. Empirically, Self-RedTeam uncovers more diverse attacks (+21.8% SBERT) compared to attackers trained against static defenders and achieves higher robustness on safety benchmarks (e.g., +65.5% on WildJailBreak) than defenders trained against static attackers. We further propose hidden Chain-of-Thought, allowing agents to plan privately, which boosts adversarial diversity and reduces over-refusals. Our results motivate a shift from reactive patching to proactive co-evolution in LM safety training, enabling scalable, autonomous, and robust self-improvement of LMs via multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL).

Yuwei Zhang, Kumar Ayush, Siyuan Qiao et al.

We present SensorLM, a family of sensor-language foundation models that enable wearable sensor data understanding with natural language. Despite its pervasive nature, aligning and interpreting sensor data with language remains challenging due to the lack of paired, richly annotated sensor-text descriptions in uncurated, real-world wearable data. We introduce a hierarchical caption generation pipeline designed to capture statistical, structural, and semantic information from sensor data. This approach enabled the curation of the largest sensor-language dataset to date, comprising over 59.7 million hours of data from more than 103,000 people. Furthermore, SensorLM extends prominent multimodal pretraining architectures (e.g., CLIP, CoCa) and recovers them as specific variants within a generic architecture. Extensive experiments on real-world tasks in human activity analysis and healthcare verify the superior performance of SensorLM over state-of-the-art in zero-shot recognition, few-shot learning, and cross-modal retrieval. SensorLM also demonstrates intriguing capabilities including scaling behaviors, label efficiency, sensor captioning, and zero-shot generalization to unseen tasks.

Xinyi Zhou, Ashish Sharma, Amy X. Zhang et al. · uw

Real-world misinformation, often multimodal, can be partially or fully factual but misleading using diverse tactics like conflating correlation with causation. Such misinformation is severely understudied, challenging to address, and harms various social domains, particularly on social media, where it can spread rapidly. High-quality and timely correction of misinformation that identifies and explains its (in)accuracies effectively reduces false beliefs. Despite the wide acceptance of manual correction, it is difficult to be timely and scalable. While LLMs have versatile capabilities that could accelerate misinformation correction, they struggle due to a lack of recent information, a tendency to produce false content, and limitations in addressing multimodal information. We propose MUSE, an LLM augmented with access to and credibility evaluation of up-to-date information. By retrieving evidence as refutations or supporting context, MUSE identifies and explains content (in)accuracies with references. It conducts multimodal retrieval and interprets visual content to verify and correct multimodal content. Given the absence of a comprehensive evaluation approach, we propose 13 dimensions of misinformation correction quality. Then, fact-checking experts evaluate responses to social media content that are not presupposed to be misinformation but broadly include (partially) incorrect and correct posts that may (not) be misleading. Results demonstrate MUSE's ability to write high-quality responses to potential misinformation--across modalities, tactics, domains, political leanings, and for information that has not previously been fact-checked online--within minutes of its appearance on social media. Overall, MUSE outperforms GPT-4 by 37% and even high-quality responses from laypeople by 29%. Our work provides a general methodological and evaluative framework to correct misinformation at scale.

Vidya Srinivas, Xuhai Xu, Xin Liu et al.

While NLP research has made strides in conversational tasks, many approaches focus on single-turn responses with well-defined objectives or evaluation criteria. In contrast, coaching presents unique challenges with initially undefined goals that evolve through multi-turn interactions, subjective evaluation criteria, mixed-initiative dialogue. In this work, we describe and implement five multi-turn coaching agents that exhibit distinct conversational styles, and evaluate them through a user study, collecting first-person feedback on 155 conversations. We find that users highly value core functionality, and that stylistic components in absence of core components are viewed negatively. By comparing user feedback with third-person evaluations from health experts and an LM, we reveal significant misalignment across evaluation approaches. Our findings provide insights into design and evaluation of conversational coaching agents and contribute toward improving human-centered NLP applications.

A. Ali Heydari, Ken Gu, Vidya Srinivas et al. · stanford

Health is a fundamental pillar of human wellness, and the rapid advancements in large language models (LLMs) have driven the development of a new generation of health agents. However, the application of health agents to fulfill the diverse needs of individuals in daily non-clinical settings is underexplored. In this work, we aim to build a comprehensive personal health agent that is able to reason about multimodal data from everyday consumer wellness devices and common personal health records, and provide personalized health recommendations. To understand end-users' needs when interacting with such an assistant, we conducted an in-depth analysis of web search and health forum queries, alongside qualitative insights from users and health experts gathered through a user-centered design process. Based on these findings, we identified three major categories of consumer health needs, each of which is supported by a specialist sub-agent: (1) a data science agent that analyzes personal time-series wearable and health record data, (2) a health domain expert agent that integrates users' health and contextual data to generate accurate, personalized insights, and (3) a health coach agent that synthesizes data insights, guiding users using a specified psychological strategy and tracking users' progress. Furthermore, we propose and develop the Personal Health Agent (PHA), a multi-agent framework that enables dynamic, personalized interactions to address individual health needs. To evaluate each sub-agent and the multi-agent system, we conducted automated and human evaluations across 10 benchmark tasks, involving more than 7,000 annotations and 1,100 hours of effort from health experts and end-users. Our work represents the most comprehensive evaluation of a health agent to date and establishes a strong foundation towards the futuristic vision of a personal health agent accessible to everyone.

Maxwell A. Xu, Girish Narayanswamy, Kumar Ayush et al.

Foundation models, a cornerstone of recent advancements in machine learning, have predominantly thrived on complete and well-structured data. Wearable sensor data frequently suffers from significant missingness, posing a substantial challenge for self-supervised learning (SSL) models that typically assume complete data inputs. This paper introduces the second generation of Large Sensor Model (LSM-2) with Adaptive and Inherited Masking (AIM), a novel SSL approach that learns robust representations directly from incomplete data without requiring explicit imputation. AIM's core novelty lies in its use of learnable mask tokens to model both existing ("inherited") and artificially introduced missingness, enabling it to robustly handle fragmented real-world data during inference. Pre-trained on an extensive dataset of 40M hours of day-long multimodal sensor data, our LSM-2 with AIM achieves the best performance across a diverse range of tasks, including classification, regression and generative modeling. Furthermore, LSM-2 with AIM exhibits superior scaling performance, and critically, maintains high performance even under targeted missingness scenarios, reflecting clinically coherent patterns, such as the diagnostic value of nighttime biosignals for hypertension prediction. This makes AIM a more reliable choice for real-world wearable data applications.

Ken Gu, Zhihan Zhang, Kate Lin et al. · stanford

Language models (LMs) are increasingly being deployed to perform autonomous data analyses. However, their data awareness -- the ability to recognize, reason over, and appropriately handle data artifacts such as missing values, outliers, and logical inconsistencies -- remains underexplored. These artifacts are especially common in real-world tabular data and, if mishandled, can significantly compromise the validity of analytical conclusions. To address this gap, we present RADAR, a benchmark for systematically evaluating data-aware reasoning on tabular data. We develop a framework to simulate data artifacts via programmatic perturbations to enable targeted evaluation of model behavior. RADAR comprises 2980 table query pairs, grounded in real-world data spanning 9 domains and 5 data artifact types. In addition to evaluating artifact handling, RADAR systematically varies table size to study how reasoning performance holds when increasing table size. Our evaluation reveals that, despite decent performance on tables without data artifacts, frontier models degrade significantly when data artifacts are introduced, exposing critical gaps in their capacity for robust, data-aware analysis. Designed to be flexible and extensible, RADAR supports diverse perturbation types and controllable table sizes, offering a valuable resource for advancing tabular reasoning.

Ken Gu, Advait Bhat, Mike A Merrill et al.

Evaluating the reasoning ability of language models (LMs) is complicated by their extensive parametric world knowledge, where benchmark performance often reflects factual recall rather than genuine reasoning. Existing datasets and approaches (e.g., temporal filtering, paraphrasing, adversarial substitution) cannot cleanly separate the two. We present SynthWorlds, a framework that disentangles task reasoning complexity from factual knowledge. In SynthWorlds, we construct parallel corpora representing two worlds with identical interconnected structure: a real-mapped world, where models may exploit parametric knowledge, and a synthetic-mapped world, where such knowledge is meaningless. On top of these corpora, we design two mirrored tasks as case studies: multi-hop question answering and page navigation, which maintain equal reasoning difficulty across worlds. Experiments in parametric-only (e.g., closed-book QA) and knowledge-augmented (e.g., retrieval-augmented) LM settings reveal a persistent knowledge advantage gap, defined as the performance boost models gain from memorized parametric world knowledge. Knowledge acquisition and integration mechanisms reduce but do not eliminate this gap, highlighting opportunities for system improvements. Fully automatic and scalable, SynthWorlds provides a controlled environment for evaluating LMs in ways that were previously challenging, enabling precise and testable comparisons of reasoning and memorization.

Mingtian Tan, Mike A. Merrill, Vinayak Gupta et al.

Large language models (LLMs) are being applied to time series forecasting. But are language models actually useful for time series? In a series of ablation studies on three recent and popular LLM-based time series forecasting methods, we find that removing the LLM component or replacing it with a basic attention layer does not degrade forecasting performance -- in most cases, the results even improve! We also find that despite their significant computational cost, pretrained LLMs do no better than models trained from scratch, do not represent the sequential dependencies in time series, and do not assist in few-shot settings. Additionally, we explore time series encoders and find that patching and attention structures perform similarly to LLM-based forecasters.

Akshay Paruchuri, Jake Garrison, Shun Liao et al.

Language models (LM) are capable of remarkably complex linguistic tasks; however, numerical reasoning is an area in which they frequently struggle. An important but rarely evaluated form of reasoning is understanding probability distributions. In this paper, we focus on evaluating the probabilistic reasoning capabilities of LMs using idealized and real-world statistical distributions. We perform a systematic evaluation of state-of-the-art LMs on three tasks: estimating percentiles, drawing samples, and calculating probabilities. We evaluate three ways to provide context to LMs 1) anchoring examples from within a distribution or family of distributions, 2) real-world context, 3) summary statistics on which to base a Normal approximation. Models can make inferences about distributions, and can be further aided by the incorporation of real-world context, example shots and simplified assumptions, even if these assumptions are incorrect or misspecified. To conduct this work, we developed a comprehensive benchmark distribution dataset with associated question-answer pairs that we have released publicly.

Justin Cosentino, Anastasiya Belyaeva, Xin Liu et al.

In health, most large language model (LLM) research has focused on clinical tasks. However, mobile and wearable devices, which are rarely integrated into such tasks, provide rich, longitudinal data for personal health monitoring. Here we present Personal Health Large Language Model (PH-LLM), fine-tuned from Gemini for understanding and reasoning over numerical time-series personal health data. We created and curated three datasets that test 1) production of personalized insights and recommendations from sleep patterns, physical activity, and physiological responses, 2) expert domain knowledge, and 3) prediction of self-reported sleep outcomes. For the first task we designed 857 case studies in collaboration with domain experts to assess real-world scenarios in sleep and fitness. Through comprehensive evaluation of domain-specific rubrics, we observed that Gemini Ultra 1.0 and PH-LLM are not statistically different from expert performance in fitness and, while experts remain superior for sleep, fine-tuning PH-LLM provided significant improvements in using relevant domain knowledge and personalizing information for sleep insights. We evaluated PH-LLM domain knowledge using multiple choice sleep medicine and fitness examinations. PH-LLM achieved 79% on sleep and 88% on fitness, exceeding average scores from a sample of human experts. Finally, we trained PH-LLM to predict self-reported sleep quality outcomes from textual and multimodal encoding representations of wearable data, and demonstrate that multimodal encoding is required to match performance of specialized discriminative models. Although further development and evaluation are necessary in the safety-critical personal health domain, these results demonstrate both the broad knowledge and capabilities of Gemini models and the benefit of contextualizing physiological data for personal health applications as done with PH-LLM.

Mike A. Merrill, Akshay Paruchuri, Naghmeh Rezaei et al.

Deriving personalized insights from popular wearable trackers requires complex numerical reasoning that challenges standard LLMs, necessitating tool-based approaches like code generation. Large language model (LLM) agents present a promising yet largely untapped solution for this analysis at scale. We introduce the Personal Health Insights Agent (PHIA), a system leveraging multistep reasoning with code generation and information retrieval to analyze and interpret behavioral health data. To test its capabilities, we create and share two benchmark datasets with over 4000 health insights questions. A 650-hour human expert evaluation shows that PHIA significantly outperforms a strong code generation baseline, achieving 84% accuracy on objective, numerical questions and, for open-ended ones, earning 83% favorable ratings while being twice as likely to achieve the highest quality rating. This work can advance behavioral health by empowering individuals to understand their data, enabling a new era of accessible, personalized, and data-driven wellness for the wider population.

Ashish Sharma, Kevin Rushton, Inna Wanyin Lin et al.

A proven therapeutic technique to overcome negative thoughts is to replace them with a more hopeful "reframed thought." Although therapy can help people practice and learn this Cognitive Reframing of Negative Thoughts, clinician shortages and mental health stigma commonly limit people's access to therapy. In this paper, we conduct a human-centered study of how language models may assist people in reframing negative thoughts. Based on psychology literature, we define a framework of seven linguistic attributes that can be used to reframe a thought. We develop automated metrics to measure these attributes and validate them with expert judgements from mental health practitioners. We collect a dataset of 600 situations, thoughts and reframes from practitioners and use it to train a retrieval-enhanced in-context learning model that effectively generates reframed thoughts and controls their linguistic attributes. To investigate what constitutes a "high-quality" reframe, we conduct an IRB-approved randomized field study on a large mental health website with over 2,000 participants. Amongst other findings, we show that people prefer highly empathic or specific reframes, as opposed to reframes that are overly positive. Our findings provide key implications for the use of LMs to assist people in overcoming negative thoughts.

Galen Weld, Amy X. Zhang, Tim Althoff

Making online social communities 'better' is a challenging undertaking, as online communities are extraordinarily varied in their size, topical focus, and governance. As such, what is valued by one community may not be valued by another. However, community values are challenging to measure as they are rarely explicitly stated. In this work, we measure community values through the first large-scale survey of community values, including 2,769 reddit users in 2,151 unique subreddits. Through a combination of survey responses and a quantitative analysis of public reddit data, we characterize how these values vary within and across communities. Amongst other findings, we show that community members disagree about how safe their communities are, that longstanding communities place 30.1% more importance on trustworthiness than newer communities, and that community moderators want their communities to be 56.7% less democratic than non-moderator community members. These findings have important implications, including suggesting that care must be taken to protect vulnerable community members, and that participatory governance strategies may be difficult to implement. Accurate and scalable modeling of community values enables research and governance which is tuned to each community's different values. To this end, we demonstrate that a small number of automatically quantifiable features capture a significant yet limited amount of the variation in values between communities with a ROC AUC of 0.667 on a binary classification task. However, substantial variation remains, and modeling community values remains an important topic for future work. We make our models and data public to inform community design and governance.

Galen Weld, Amy X. Zhang, Tim Althoff

Many researchers studying online communities seek to make them better. However, beyond a small set of widely-held values, such as combating misinformation and abuse, determining what 'better' means can be challenging, as community members may disagree, values may be in conflict, and different communities may have differing preferences as a whole. In this work, we present the first study that elicits values directly from members across a diverse set of communities. We survey 212 members of 627 unique subreddits and ask them to describe their values for their communities in their own words. Through iterative categorization of 1,481 responses, we develop and validate a comprehensive taxonomy of community values, consisting of 29 subcategories within nine top-level categories, enabling principled, quantitative study of community values by researchers. Using our taxonomy, we reframe existing research problems, such as managing influxes of new members, as tensions between different values, and we identify understudied values, such as those regarding content quality and community size. We call for greater attention to vulnerable community members' values, and we make our codebook public for use in future research.

Mike A. Merrill, Tim Althoff

While deep learning has revolutionized research and applications in NLP and computer vision, this has not yet been the case for behavioral modeling and behavioral health applications. This is because the domain's datasets are smaller, have heterogeneous datatypes, and typically exhibit a large degree of missingness. Therefore, off-the-shelf deep learning models require significant, often prohibitive, adaptation. Accordingly, many research applications still rely on manually coded features with boosted tree models, sometimes with task-specific features handcrafted by experts. Here, we address these challenges by providing a neural architecture framework for mobile sensing data that can learn generalizable feature representations from time series and demonstrates the feasibility of transfer learning on small data domains through finetuning. This architecture combines benefits from CNN and Trans-former architectures to (1) enable better prediction performance by learning directly from raw minute-level sensor data without the need for handcrafted features by up to 0.33 ROC AUC, and (2) use pretraining to outperform simpler neural models and boosted decision trees with data from as few a dozen participants.

Chunjong Park, Morelle Arian, Xin Liu et al.

Sleep is critical to human function, mediating factors like memory, mood, energy, and alertness; therefore, it is commonly conjectured that a good night's sleep is important for job performance. However, both real-world sleep behavior and job performance are hard to measure at scale. In this work, we show that people's everyday interactions with online mobile apps can reveal insights into their job performance in real-world contexts. We present an observational study in which we objectively tracked the sleep behavior and job performance of salespeople (N = 15) and athletes (N = 19) for 18 months, using a mattress sensor and online mobile app. We first demonstrate that cumulative sleep measures are correlated with job performance metrics, showing that an hour of daily sleep loss for a week was associated with a 9.0% and 9.5% reduction in performance of salespeople and athletes, respectively. We then examine the utility of online app interaction time as a passively collectible and scalable performance indicator. We show that app interaction time is correlated with the performance of the athletes, but not the salespeople. To support that our app-based performance indicator captures meaningful variation in psychomotor function and is robust against potential confounds, we conducted a second study to evaluate the relationship between sleep behavior and app interaction time in a cohort of 274 participants. Using a generalized additive model to control for per-participant random effects, we demonstrate that participants who lost one hour of daily sleep for a week exhibited 5.0% slower app interaction times. We also find that app interaction time exhibits meaningful chronobiologically consistent correlations with sleep history, time awake, and circadian rhythms. Our findings reveal an opportunity for online app developers to generate new insights regarding cognition and productivity.

Ashish Sharma, Inna W. Lin, Adam S. Miner et al.

Online peer-to-peer support platforms enable conversations between millions of people who seek and provide mental health support. If successful, web-based mental health conversations could improve access to treatment and reduce the global disease burden. Psychologists have repeatedly demonstrated that empathy, the ability to understand and feel the emotions and experiences of others, is a key component leading to positive outcomes in supportive conversations. However, recent studies have shown that highly empathic conversations are rare in online mental health platforms. In this paper, we work towards improving empathy in online mental health support conversations. We introduce a new task of empathic rewriting which aims to transform low-empathy conversational posts to higher empathy. Learning such transformations is challenging and requires a deep understanding of empathy while maintaining conversation quality through text fluency and specificity to the conversational context. Here we propose PARTNER, a deep reinforcement learning agent that learns to make sentence-level edits to posts in order to increase the expressed level of empathy while maintaining conversation quality. Our RL agent leverages a policy network, based on a transformer language model adapted from GPT-2, which performs the dual task of generating candidate empathic sentences and adding those sentences at appropriate positions. During training, we reward transformations that increase empathy in posts while maintaining text fluency, context specificity and diversity. Through a combination of automatic and human evaluation, we demonstrate that PARTNER successfully generates more empathic, specific, and diverse responses and outperforms NLP methods from related tasks like style transfer and empathic dialogue generation. Our work has direct implications for facilitating empathic conversations on web-based platforms.

Galen Weld, Peter West, Maria Glenski et al.

Causal inference studies using textual social media data can provide actionable insights on human behavior. Making accurate causal inferences with text requires controlling for confounding which could otherwise impart bias. Recently, many different methods for adjusting for confounders have been proposed, and we show that these existing methods disagree with one another on two datasets inspired by previous social media studies. Evaluating causal methods is challenging, as ground truth counterfactuals are almost never available. Presently, no empirical evaluation framework for causal methods using text exists, and as such, practitioners must select their methods without guidance. We contribute the first such framework, which consists of five tasks drawn from real world studies. Our framework enables the evaluation of any casual inference method using text. Across 648 experiments and two datasets, we evaluate every commonly used causal inference method and identify their strengths and weaknesses to inform social media researchers seeking to use such methods, and guide future improvements. We make all tasks, data, and models public to inform applications and encourage additional research.

Ashish Sharma, Adam S. Miner, David C. Atkins et al.

Empathy is critical to successful mental health support. Empathy measurement has predominantly occurred in synchronous, face-to-face settings, and may not translate to asynchronous, text-based contexts. Because millions of people use text-based platforms for mental health support, understanding empathy in these contexts is crucial. In this work, we present a computational approach to understanding how empathy is expressed in online mental health platforms. We develop a novel unifying theoretically-grounded framework for characterizing the communication of empathy in text-based conversations. We collect and share a corpus of 10k (post, response) pairs annotated using this empathy framework with supporting evidence for annotations (rationales). We develop a multi-task RoBERTa-based bi-encoder model for identifying empathy in conversations and extracting rationales underlying its predictions. Experiments demonstrate that our approach can effectively identify empathic conversations. We further apply this model to analyze 235k mental health interactions and show that users do not self-learn empathy over time, revealing opportunities for empathy training and feedback.

Ge Zhang, Mike A. Merrill, Yang Liu et al.

Large scale analysis of source code, and in particular scientific source code, holds the promise of better understanding the data science process, identifying analytical best practices, and providing insights to the builders of scientific toolkits. However, large corpora have remained unanalyzed in depth, as descriptive labels are absent and require expert domain knowledge to generate. We propose a novel weakly supervised transformer-based architecture for computing joint representations of code from both abstract syntax trees and surrounding natural language comments. We then evaluate the model on a new classification task for labeling computational notebook cells as stages in the data analysis process from data import to wrangling, exploration, modeling, and evaluation. We show that our model, leveraging only easily-available weak supervision, achieves a 38% increase in accuracy over expert-supplied heuristics and outperforms a suite of baselines. Our model enables us to examine a set of 118,000 Jupyter Notebooks to uncover common data analysis patterns. Focusing on notebooks with relationships to academic articles, we conduct the largest ever study of scientific code and find that notebook composition correlates with the citation count of corresponding papers.

Jina Suh, Eric Horvitz, Ryen W. White et al.

Most work to date on mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic is focused urgently on biomedicine and epidemiology. Yet, pandemic-related policy decisions cannot be made on health information alone. Decisions need to consider the broader impacts on people and their needs. Quantifying human needs across the population is challenging as it requires high geo-temporal granularity, high coverage across the population, and appropriate adjustment for seasonal and other external effects. Here, we propose a computational methodology, building on Maslow's hierarchy of needs, that can capture a holistic view of relative changes in needs following the pandemic through a difference-in-differences approach that corrects for seasonality and volume variations. We apply this approach to characterize changes in human needs across physiological, socioeconomic, and psychological realms in the US, based on more than 35 billion search interactions spanning over 36,000 ZIP codes over a period of 14 months. The analyses reveal that the expression of basic human needs has increased exponentially while higher-level aspirations declined during the pandemic in comparison to the pre-pandemic period. In exploring the timing and variations in statewide policies, we find that the durations of shelter-in-place mandates have influenced social and emotional needs significantly. We demonstrate that potential barriers to addressing critical needs, such as support for unemployment and domestic violence, can be identified through web search interactions. Our approach and results suggest that population-scale monitoring of shifts in human needs can inform policies and recovery efforts for current and anticipated needs.

Yang Liu, Alex Kale, Tim Althoff et al.

Multiverse analysis is an approach to data analysis in which all "reasonable" analytic decisions are evaluated in parallel and interpreted collectively, in order to foster robustness and transparency. However, specifying a multiverse is demanding because analysts must manage myriad variants from a cross-product of analytic decisions, and the results require nuanced interpretation. We contribute Boba: an integrated domain-specific language (DSL) and visual analysis system for authoring and reviewing multiverse analyses. With the Boba DSL, analysts write the shared portion of analysis code only once, alongside local variations defining alternative decisions, from which the compiler generates a multiplex of scripts representing all possible analysis paths. The Boba Visualizer provides linked views of model results and the multiverse decision space to enable rapid, systematic assessment of consequential decisions and robustness, including sampling uncertainty and model fit. We demonstrate Boba's utility through two data analysis case studies, and reflect on challenges and design opportunities for multiverse analysis software.

David Wadden, Tal August, Qisheng Li et al.

Many people struggling with mental health issues are unable to access adequate care due to high costs and a shortage of mental health professionals, leading to a global mental health crisis. Online mental health communities can help mitigate this crisis by offering a scalable, easily accessible alternative to in-person sessions with therapists or support groups. However, people seeking emotional or psychological support online may be especially vulnerable to the kinds of antisocial behavior that sometimes occur in online discussions. Moderation can improve online discourse quality, but we lack an understanding of its effects on online mental health conversations. In this work, we leveraged a natural experiment, occurring across 200,000 messages from 7,000 online mental health conversations, to evaluate the effects of moderation on online mental health discussions. We found that participation in group mental health discussions led to improvements in psychological perspective, and that these improvements were larger in moderated conversations. The presence of a moderator increased user engagement, encouraged users to discuss negative emotions more candidly, and dramatically reduced bad behavior among chat participants. Moderation also encouraged stronger linguistic coordination, which is indicative of trust building. In addition, moderators who remained active in conversations were especially successful in keeping conversations on topic. Our findings suggest that moderation can serve as a valuable tool to improve the efficacy and safety of online mental health conversations. Based on these findings, we discuss implications and trade-offs involved in designing effective online spaces for mental health support.

Yang Liu, Tim Althoff, Jeffrey Heer

Drawing reliable inferences from data involves many, sometimes arbitrary, decisions across phases of data collection, wrangling, and modeling. As different choices can lead to diverging conclusions, understanding how researchers make analytic decisions is important for supporting robust and replicable analysis. In this study, we pore over nine published research studies and conduct semi-structured interviews with their authors. We observe that researchers often base their decisions on methodological or theoretical concerns, but subject to constraints arising from the data, expertise, or perceived interpretability. We confirm that researchers may experiment with choices in search of desirable results, but also identify other reasons why researchers explore alternatives yet omit findings. In concert with our interviews, we also contribute visualizations for communicating decision processes throughout an analysis. Based on our results, we identify design opportunities for strengthening end-to-end analysis, for instance via tracking and meta-analysis of multiple decision paths.

Mitchell L. Gordon, Tim Althoff, Jure Leskovec

Activity tracking apps often make use of goals as one of their core motivational tools. There are two critical components to this tool: setting a goal, and subsequently achieving that goal. Despite its crucial role in how a number of prominent self-tracking apps function, there has been relatively little investigation of the goal-setting and achievement aspects of self-tracking apps. Here we explore this issue, investigating a particular goal setting and achievement process that is extensive, recorded, and crucial for both the app and its users' success: weight loss goals in MyFitnessPal. We present a large-scale study of 1.4 million users and weight loss goals, allowing for an unprecedented detailed view of how people set and achieve their goals. We find that, even for difficult long-term goals, behavior within the first 7 days predicts those who ultimately achieve their goals, that is, those who lose at least as much weight as they set out to, and those who do not. For instance, high amounts of early weight loss, which some researchers have classified as unsustainable, leads to higher goal achievement rates. We also show that early food intake, self-monitoring motivation, and attitude towards the goal are important factors. We then show that we can use our findings to predict goal achievement with an accuracy of 79% ROC AUC just 7 days after a goal is set. Finally, we discuss how our findings could inform steps to improve goal achievement in self-tracking apps.

Haraldur T. Hallgrímsson, Filip Jankovic, Tim Althoff et al.

We consider the problem of modeling cardiovascular responses to physical activity and sleep changes captured by wearable sensors in free living conditions. We use an attentional convolutional neural network to learn parsimonious signatures of individual cardiovascular response from data recorded at the minute level resolution over several months on a cohort of 80k people. We demonstrate internal validity by showing that signatures generated on an individual's 2017 data generalize to predict minute-level heart rate from physical activity and sleep for the same individual in 2018, outperforming several time-series forecasting baselines. We also show external validity demonstrating that signatures outperform plain resting heart rate (RHR) in predicting variables associated with cardiovascular functions, such as age and Body Mass Index (BMI). We believe that the computed cardiovascular signatures have utility in monitoring cardiovascular health over time, including detecting abnormalities and quantifying recovery from acute events.