Sadegh Esmaeil Zadeh Soudjani

Samira S. Farahani, Rupak Majumdar, Vinayak Prabhu et al.

We present Shrinking Horizon Model Predictive Control (SHMPC) for discrete-time linear systems with Signal Temporal Logic (STL) specification constraints under stochastic disturbances. The control objective is to maximize an optimization function under the restriction that a given STL specification is satisfied with high probability against stochastic uncertainties. We formulate a general solution, which does not require precise knowledge of the probability distributions of the (possibly dependent) stochastic disturbances; only the bounded support intervals of the density functions and moment intervals are used. For the specific case of disturbances that are independent and normally distributed, we optimize the controllers further by utilizing knowledge of the disturbance probability distributions. We show that in both cases, the control law can be obtained by solving optimization problems with linear constraints at each step. We experimentally demonstrate effectiveness of this approach by synthesizing a controller for an HVAC system.

Abolfazl Lavaei, Sadegh Esmaeil Zadeh Soudjani, Rupak Majumdar et al.

This paper is concerned with a compositional approach for constructing abstractions of interconnected discrete-time stochastic control systems. The abstraction framework is based on new notions of so-called stochastic simulation functions, using which one can quantify the distance between original interconnected stochastic control systems and their abstractions in the probabilistic setting. Accordingly, one can leverage the proposed results to perform analysis and synthesis over abstract interconnected systems, and then carry the results over concrete ones. In the first part of the paper, we derive sufficient small-gain type conditions for the compositional quantification of the distance in probability between the interconnection of stochastic control subsystems and that of their abstractions. In the second part of the paper, we focus on the class of discrete-time linear stochastic control systems with independent noises in the abstract and concrete subsystems. For this class of systems, we propose a computational scheme to construct abstractions together with their corresponding stochastic simulation functions. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed results by constructing an abstraction (totally 4 dimensions) of the interconnection of four discrete-time linear stochastic control subsystems (together 100 dimensions) in a compositional fashion.

Kaushik Mallik, Sadegh Esmaeil Zadeh Soudjani, Anne-Kathrin Schmuck et al.

Controller synthesis techniques for continuous systems with respect to temporal logic specifications typically use a finite-state symbolic abstraction of the system. Constructing this abstraction for the entire system is computationally expensive, and does not exploit natural decompositions of many systems into interacting components. We have recently introduced a new relation, called (approximate) disturbance bisimulation for compositional symbolic abstraction to help scale controller synthesis for temporal logic to larger systems. In this paper, we extend the results to stochastic control systems modeled by stochastic differential equations. Given any stochastic control system satisfying a stochastic version of the incremental input-to-state stability property and a positive error bound, we show how to construct a finite-state transition system (if there exists one) which is disturbance bisimilar to the given stochastic control system. Given a network of stochastic control systems, we give conditions on the simultaneous existence of disturbance bisimilar abstractions to every component allowing for compositional abstraction of the network system.

Rayna Dimitrova, Ivan Gavran, Rupak Majumdar et al.

We propose a new model for formalizing reward collection problems on graphs with dynamically generated rewards which may appear and disappear based on a stochastic model. The *robot routing problem* is modeled as a graph whose nodes are stochastic processes generating potential rewards over discrete time. The rewards are generated according to the stochastic process, but at each step, an existing reward disappears with a given probability. The edges in the graph encode the (unit-distance) paths between the rewards' locations. On visiting a node, the robot collects the accumulated reward at the node at that time, but traveling between the nodes takes time. The optimization question asks to compute an optimal (or epsilon-optimal) path that maximizes the expected collected rewards. We consider the finite and infinite-horizon robot routing problems. For finite-horizon, the goal is to maximize the total expected reward, while for infinite horizon we consider limit-average objectives. We study the computational and strategy complexity of these problems, establish NP-lower bounds and show that optimal strategies require memory in general. We also provide an algorithm for computing epsilon-optimal infinite paths for arbitrary epsilon > 0.

Sadegh Esmaeil Zadeh Soudjani, Rupak Majumdar, Tigran Nagapetyan

We study statistical model checking of continuous-time stochastic hybrid systems. The challenge in applying statistical model checking to these systems is that one cannot simulate such systems exactly. We employ the multilevel Monte Carlo method (MLMC) and work on a sequence of discrete-time stochastic processes whose executions approximate and converge weakly to that of the original continuous-time stochastic hybrid system with respect to satisfaction of the property of interest. With focus on bounded-horizon reachability, we recast the model checking problem as the computation of the distribution of the exit time, which is in turn formulated as the expectation of an indicator function. This latter computation involves estimating discontinuous functionals, which reduces the bound on the convergence rate of the Monte Carlo algorithm. We propose a smoothing step with tunable precision and formally quantify the error of the MLMC approach in the mean-square sense, which is composed of smoothing error, bias, and variance. We formulate a general adaptive algorithm which balances these error terms. Finally, we describe an application of our technique to verify a model of thermostatically controlled loads.

Sadegh Esmaeil Zadeh Soudjani, Alessandro Abate, Rupak Majumdar

We study the problem of finite-horizon probabilistic invariance for discrete-time Markov processes over general (uncountable) state spaces. We compute discrete-time, finite-state Markov chains as formal abstractions of general Markov processes. Our abstraction differs from existing approaches in two ways. First, we exploit the structure of the underlying Markov process to compute the abstraction separately for each dimension. Second, we employ dynamic Bayesian networks (DBN) as compact representations of the abstraction. In contrast, existing approaches represent and store the (exponentially large) Markov chain explicitly, which leads to heavy memory requirements limiting the application to models of dimension less than half, according to our experiments. We show how to construct a DBN abstraction of a Markov process satisfying an independence assumption on the driving process noise. We compute a guaranteed bound on the error in the abstraction w.r.t.\ the probabilistic invariance property; the dimension-dependent abstraction makes the error bounds more precise than existing approaches. Additionally, we show how factor graphs and the sum-product algorithm for DBNs can be used to solve the finite-horizon probabilistic invariance problem. Together, DBN-based representations and algorithms can be significantly more efficient than explicit representations of Markov chains for abstracting and model checking structured Markov processes.