Jose M. Reynolds-Barredo

Ian Dobson, Benjamin A. Carreras, David E. Newman et al.

We show how to use standard transmission line outage historical data to obtain the network topology in such a way that cascades of line outages can be easily located on the network. Then we obtain statistics quantifying how cascading outages typically spread on the network. Processing real outage data is fundamental for understanding cascading and for evaluating the validity of the many different models and simulations that have been proposed for cascading in power networks.

Ian Dobson, NichelleLe K. Carrington, Kai Zhou et al.

We describe some bulk statistics of historical initial line outages and the implications for forming contingency lists and understanding which initial outages are likely to lead to further cascading. We use historical outage data to estimate the effect of weather on cascading via cause codes and via NOAA storm data. Bad weather significantly increases outage rates and interacts with cascading effects, and should be accounted for in cascading models and simulations. We suggest how weather effects can be incorporated into the OPA cascading simulation and validated. There are very good prospects for improving data processing and models for the bulk statistics of historical outage data so that cascading can be better understood and quantified.