Qing Tan

Di Wu, Cheng Chen, Xiujun Chen et al.

In online display advertising, guaranteed contracts and real-time bidding (RTB) are two major ways to sell impressions for a publisher. For large publishers, simultaneously selling impressions through both guaranteed contracts and in-house RTB has become a popular choice. Generally speaking, a publisher needs to derive an impression allocation strategy between guaranteed contracts and RTB to maximize its overall outcome (e.g., revenue and/or impression quality). However, deriving the optimal strategy is not a trivial task, e.g., the strategy should encourage incentive compatibility in RTB and tackle common challenges in real-world applications such as unstable traffic patterns (e.g., impression volume and bid landscape changing). In this paper, we formulate impression allocation as an auction problem where each guaranteed contract submits virtual bids for individual impressions. With this formulation, we derive the optimal bidding functions for the guaranteed contracts, which result in the optimal impression allocation. In order to address the unstable traffic pattern challenge and achieve the optimal overall outcome, we propose a multi-agent reinforcement learning method to adjust the bids from each guaranteed contract, which is simple, converging efficiently and scalable. The experiments conducted on real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Jun Chen, Cheng Chen, Huayue Zhang et al.

Advertisers usually enjoy the flexibility to choose criteria like target audience, geographic area and bid price when planning an campaign for online display advertising, while they lack forecast information on campaign performance to optimize delivery strategies in advance, resulting in a waste of labour and budget for feedback adjustments. In this paper, we aim to forecast key performance indicators for new campaigns given any certain criteria. Interpretable and accurate results could enable advertisers to manage and optimize their campaign criteria. There are several challenges for this very task. First, platforms usually offer advertisers various criteria when they plan an advertising campaign, it is difficult to estimate campaign performance unifiedly because of the great difference among bidding types. Furthermore, complex strategies applied in bidding system bring great fluctuation on campaign performance, making estimation accuracy an extremely tough problem. To address above challenges, we propose a novel Campaign Performance Forecasting framework, which firstly reproduces campaign performance on historical logs under various bidding types with a unified replay algorithm, in which essential auction processes like match and rank are replayed, ensuring the interpretability on forecast results. Then, we innovatively introduce a multi-task learning method to calibrate the deviation of estimation brought by hard-to-reproduce bidding strategies in replay. The method captures mixture calibration patterns among related forecast indicators to map the estimated results to the true ones, improving both accuracy and efficiency significantly. Experiment results on a dataset from Taobao.com demonstrate that the proposed framework significantly outperforms other baselines by a large margin, and an online A/B test verifies its effectiveness in the real world.