Paul Diaz

Paul Diaz, Paul Constantine, Kelsey Kalmbach et al.

A modified, deterministic SEIR model is developed for the 2014 Ebola epidemic occurring in the West African nations of Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. The model describes the dynamical interaction of susceptible and infected populations, while accounting for the effects of hospitalization and the spread of disease through interactions with deceased, but infectious, individuals. Using data from the World Health Organization (WHO), parameters within the model are fit to recent estimates of infected and deceased cases from each nation. The model is then analyzed using these parameter values. Finally, several metrics are proposed to determine which of these nations is in greatest need of additional resources to combat the spread of infection. These include local and global sensitivity metrics of both the infected population and the basic reproduction number with respect to rates of hospitalization and proper burial.

Paul G. Constantine, Paul Diaz

Predictions from science and engineering models depend on several input parameters. Global sensitivity analysis quantifies the importance of each input parameter, which can lead to insight into the model and reduced computational cost; commonly used sensitivity metrics include Sobol' total sensitivity indices and derivative-based global sensitivity measures. Active subspaces are an emerging set of tools for identifying important directions in a model's input parameter space; these directions can be exploited to reduce the model's dimension enabling otherwise infeasible parameter studies. In this paper, we develop global sensitivity metrics called activity scores from the active subspace, which yield insight into the important model parameters. We mathematically relate the activity scores to established sensitivity metrics, and we discuss computational methods to estimate the activity scores. We show two numerical examples with algebraic functions taken from simplified engineering models. For each model, we analyze the active subspace and discuss how to exploit the low-dimensional structure. We then show that input rankings produced by the activity scores are consistent with rankings produced by the standard metrics.