Riccardo Busetto

Riccardo Busetto, Valentina Breschi, Simone Formentin

When solving global optimization problems in practice, one often ends up repeatedly solving problems that are similar to each others. By providing a rigorous definition of similarity, in this work we propose to incorporate the META-learning rationale into SMGO-$Δ$, a global optimization approach recently proposed in the literature, to exploit priors obtained from similar past experience to efficiently solve new (similar) problems. Through a benchmark numerical example we show the practical benefits of our META-extension of the baseline algorithm, while providing theoretical bounds on its performance.

Raffaele Giuseppe Cestari, Filippo Barchi, Riccardo Busetto et al.

Accurately forecasting the direction of financial returns poses a formidable challenge, given the inherent unpredictability of financial time series. The task becomes even more arduous when applied to cryptocurrency returns, given the chaotic and intricately complex nature of crypto markets. In this study, we present a novel prediction algorithm using limit order book (LOB) data rooted in the Hawkes model, a category of point processes. Coupled with a continuous output error (COE) model, our approach offers a precise forecast of return signs by leveraging predictions of future financial interactions. Capitalizing on the non-uniformly sampled structure of the original time series, our strategy surpasses benchmark models in both prediction accuracy and cumulative profit when implemented in a trading environment. The efficacy of our approach is validated through Monte Carlo simulations across 50 scenarios. The research draws on LOB measurements from a centralized cryptocurrency exchange where the stablecoin Tether is exchanged against the U.S. dollar.

Riccardo Busetto, Manas Mejari, Marco Forgione et al.

When gradient-based methods are impractical, black-box optimization (BBO) provides a valuable alternative. However, BBO often struggles with high-dimensional problems and limited trial budgets. In this work, we propose a novel approach based on meta-learning to pre-compute a reduced-dimensional manifold where optimal points lie for a specific class of optimization problems. When optimizing a new problem instance sampled from the class, black-box optimization is carried out in the reduced-dimensional space, effectively reducing the effort required for finding near-optimal solutions.