Mixture of Input-Output Hidden Markov Models for Heterogeneous Disease Progression ModelingTaha Ceritli, Andrew P. Creagh, David A. Clifton
A particular challenge for disease progression modeling is the heterogeneity of a disease and its manifestations in the patients. Existing approaches often assume the presence of a single disease progression characteristics which is unlikely for neurodegenerative disorders such as Parkinson's disease. In this paper, we propose a hierarchical time-series model that can discover multiple disease progression dynamics. The proposed model is an extension of an input-output hidden Markov model that takes into account the clinical assessments of patients' health status and prescribed medications. We illustrate the benefits of our model using a synthetically generated dataset and a real-world longitudinal dataset for Parkinson's disease.
17.5LGFeb 28, 2023
Synthesizing Mixed-type Electronic Health Records using Diffusion ModelsTaha Ceritli, Ghadeer O. Ghosheh, Vinod Kumar Chauhan et al.
Electronic Health Records (EHRs) contain sensitive patient information, which presents privacy concerns when sharing such data. Synthetic data generation is a promising solution to mitigate these risks, often relying on deep generative models such as Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs). However, recent studies have shown that diffusion models offer several advantages over GANs, such as generation of more realistic synthetic data and stable training in generating data modalities, including image, text, and sound. In this work, we investigate the potential of diffusion models for generating realistic mixed-type tabular EHRs, comparing TabDDPM model with existing methods on four datasets in terms of data quality, utility, privacy, and augmentation. Our experiments demonstrate that TabDDPM outperforms the state-of-the-art models across all evaluation metrics, except for privacy, which confirms the trade-off between privacy and utility.
2.7LGFeb 12
Diffusion Alignment Beyond KL: Variance Minimisation as Effective Policy OptimiserZijing Ou, Jacob Si, Junyi Zhu et al.
Diffusion alignment adapts pretrained diffusion models to sample from reward-tilted distributions along the denoising trajectory. This process naturally admits a Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) interpretation, where the denoising model acts as a proposal and reward guidance induces importance weights. Motivated by this view, we introduce Variance Minimisation Policy Optimisation (VMPO), which formulates diffusion alignment as minimising the variance of log importance weights rather than directly optimising a Kullback-Leibler (KL) based objective. We prove that the variance objective is minimised by the reward-tilted target distribution and that, under on-policy sampling, its gradient coincides with that of standard KL-based alignment. This perspective offers a common lens for understanding diffusion alignment. Under different choices of potential functions and variance minimisation strategies, VMPO recovers various existing methods, while also suggesting new design directions beyond KL.
4.1LGMar 26, 2025
Guided Model Merging for Hybrid Data Learning: Leveraging Centralized Data to Refine Decentralized ModelsJunyi Zhu, Ruicong Yao, Taha Ceritli et al.
Current network training paradigms primarily focus on either centralized or decentralized data regimes. However, in practice, data availability often exhibits a hybrid nature, where both regimes coexist. This hybrid setting presents new opportunities for model training, as the two regimes offer complementary trade-offs: decentralized data is abundant but subject to heterogeneity and communication constraints, while centralized data, though limited in volume and potentially unrepresentative, enables better curation and high-throughput access. Despite its potential, effectively combining these paradigms remains challenging, and few frameworks are tailored to hybrid data regimes. To address this, we propose a novel framework that constructs a model atlas from decentralized models and leverages centralized data to refine a global model within this structured space. The refined model is then used to reinitialize the decentralized models. Our method synergizes federated learning (to exploit decentralized data) and model merging (to utilize centralized data), enabling effective training under hybrid data availability. Theoretically, we show that our approach achieves faster convergence than methods relying solely on decentralized data, due to variance reduction in the merging process. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our framework consistently outperforms purely centralized, purely decentralized, and existing hybrid-adaptable methods. Notably, our method remains robust even when the centralized and decentralized data domains differ or when decentralized data contains noise, significantly broadening its applicability.
Identifying the Units of Measurement in Tabular DataTaha Ceritli, Christopher K. I. Williams
We consider the problem of identifying the units of measurement in a data column that contains both numeric values and unit symbols in each row, e.g., "5.2 l", "7 pints". In this case we seek to identify the dimension of the column (e.g. volume) and relate the unit symbols to valid units (e.g. litre, pint) obtained from a knowledge graph. Below we present PUC, a Probabilistic Unit Canonicalizer that can accurately identify the units of measurement, extract semantic descriptions of quantitative data columns and canonicalize their entries. We present the first messy real-world tabular datasets annotated for units of measurement, which can enable and accelerate the research in this area. Our experiments on these datasets show that PUC achieves better results than existing solutions.
ptype-cat: Inferring the Type and Values of Categorical VariablesTaha Ceritli, Christopher K. I. Williams
Type inference is the task of identifying the type of values in a data column and has been studied extensively in the literature. Most existing type inference methods support data types such as Boolean, date, float, integer and string. However, these methods do not consider non-Boolean categorical variables, where there are more than two possible values encoded by integers or strings. Therefore, such columns are annotated either as integer or string rather than categorical, and need to be transformed into categorical manually by the user. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic type inference method that can identify the general categorical data type (including non-Boolean variables). Additionally, we identify the possible values of each categorical variable by adapting the existing type inference method ptype. Combining these methods, we present ptype-cat which achieves better results than existing applicable solutions.