Xu Han

Shengding Hu, Xin Liu, Xu Han et al. · tencent-ai, tsinghua

The scientific scale-up of large language models (LLMs) necessitates a comprehensive understanding of their scaling properties. However, the existing literature on the scaling properties only yields an incomplete answer: optimization loss decreases predictably as the model size increases, in line with established scaling law; yet no scaling law for task has been established and the task performances are far from predictable during scaling. Task performances typically show minor gains on small models until they improve dramatically once models exceed a size threshold, exemplifying the ``emergent abilities''. In this study, we discover that small models, although they exhibit minor performance, demonstrate critical and consistent task performance improvements that are not captured by conventional evaluation strategies due to insufficient measurement resolution. To measure such improvements, we introduce PassUntil, an evaluation strategy with theoretically infinite resolution, through massive sampling in the decoding phase. With PassUntil, we conduct a quantitative investigation into the scaling law of task performance. The investigation contains two parts. Firstly, a strict task scaling law that is not conventionally known to exist, is identified, enhancing the predictability of task performances. Remarkably, we are able to predict the performance of the 2.4B model on code generation with merely 0.05\% deviation before training starts, which is the first systematic attempt to verify predictable scaling proposed by GPT-4's report. Secondly, we are able to study emergent abilities quantitatively. We identify a kind of accelerated emergence whose scaling curve cannot be fitted by standard scaling law function and has a increasing speed. We then examine two hypothesis and imply that the ``multiple circuits hypothesis'' might be responsible for the accelerated emergence.

Wang Xu, Shuo Wang, Weilin Zhao et al. · tsinghua

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated the ability to improve human efficiency through conversational interactions. Conventional LLM-powered dialogue systems, operating on a turn-based paradigm, preclude real-time interaction during response generation. To address this limitation, researchers have proposed duplex models. These models can dynamically adapt to user input, facilitating real-time interactive feedback. However, these methods typically require substantial computational resources to acquire the ability. To reduce overhead, this paper presents a new duplex decoding approach that enhances LLMs with duplex ability, requiring minimal additional training. Specifically, our method employs parallel decoding of queries and responses in conversations, effectively implementing a channel-division-multiplexing decoding strategy. Experimental results indicate that our proposed method significantly enhances the naturalness and human-likeness of user-AI interactions with minimal training costs.

Zengqing Wu, Run Peng, Xu Han et al.

Computer simulations offer a robust toolset for exploring complex systems across various disciplines. A particularly impactful approach within this realm is Agent-Based Modeling (ABM), which harnesses the interactions of individual agents to emulate intricate system dynamics. ABM's strength lies in its bottom-up methodology, illuminating emergent phenomena by modeling the behaviors of individual components of a system. Yet, ABM has its own set of challenges, notably its struggle with modeling natural language instructions and common sense in mathematical equations or rules. This paper seeks to transcend these boundaries by integrating Large Language Models (LLMs) like GPT into ABM. This amalgamation gives birth to a novel framework, Smart Agent-Based Modeling (SABM). Building upon the concept of smart agents -- entities characterized by their intelligence, adaptability, and computation ability -- we explore in the direction of utilizing LLM-powered agents to simulate real-world scenarios with increased nuance and realism. In this comprehensive exploration, we elucidate the state of the art of ABM, introduce SABM's potential and methodology, and present three case studies (source codes available at https://github.com/Roihn/SABM), demonstrating the SABM methodology and validating its effectiveness in modeling real-world systems. Furthermore, we cast a vision towards several aspects of the future of SABM, anticipating a broader horizon for its applications. Through this endeavor, we aspire to redefine the boundaries of computer simulations, enabling a more profound understanding of complex systems.

Xu Han, Zengqing Wu, Chuan Xiao

Firm competition and collusion involve complex dynamics, particularly when considering communication among firms. Such issues can be modeled as problems of complex systems, traditionally approached through experiments involving human subjects or agent-based modeling methods. We propose an innovative framework called Smart Agent-Based Modeling (SABM), wherein smart agents, supported by GPT-4 technologies, represent firms, and interact with one another. We conducted a controlled experiment to study firm price competition and collusion behaviors under various conditions. SABM is more cost-effective and flexible compared to conducting experiments with human subjects. Smart agents possess an extensive knowledge base for decision-making and exhibit human-like strategic abilities, surpassing traditional ABM agents. Furthermore, smart agents can simulate human conversation and be personalized, making them ideal for studying complex situations involving communication. Our results demonstrate that, in the absence of communication, smart agents consistently reach tacit collusion, leading to prices converging at levels higher than the Bertrand equilibrium price but lower than monopoly or cartel prices. When communication is allowed, smart agents achieve a higher-level collusion with prices close to cartel prices. Collusion forms more quickly with communication, while price convergence is smoother without it. These results indicate that communication enhances trust between firms, encouraging frequent small price deviations to explore opportunities for a higher-level win-win situation and reducing the likelihood of triggering a price war. We also assigned different personas to firms to analyze behavioral differences and tested variant models under diverse market structures. The findings showcase the effectiveness and robustness of SABM and provide intriguing insights into competition and collusion.

Zheni Zeng, Yuxuan Chen, Shi Yu et al.

Although retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) remains essential for knowledge-based question answering (KBQA), current paradigms face critical challenges under specific domains. Existing methods struggle with targeted adaptation on small-scale KBs: vanilla unsupervised training exhibits poor effectiveness, while fine-tuning incurs prohibitive costs of external signals. We present KBAlign, a self-supervised framework that enhances RAG systems through efficient model adaptation. Our key insight is to leverage the model's intrinsic capabilities for knowledge alignment through two innovative mechanisms: multi-grained self-annotation that captures global knowledge for data construction, and iterative tuning that accelerates convergence through self verification. This framework enables cost-effective model adaptation to specific textual KBs, without human supervision or external model assistance. Experiments demonstrate that KBAlign can achieve 90\% of the performance gain obtained through GPT-4-supervised adaptation, while relying entirely on self-annotation of much smaller models. KBAlign significantly improves downstream QA accuracy across multiple domains with tiny costs, particularly benefiting scenarios requiring deep knowledge integration from specialized corpora. We release our experimental data, models, and process analyses to the community for further exploration (https://github.com/thunlp/KBAlign).