George S. Young

Zhuomin Zhang, Elizabeth C. Mansfield, Jia Li et al.

The British landscape painter John Constable is considered foundational for the Realist movement in 19th-century European painting. Constable's painted skies, in particular, were seen as remarkably accurate by his contemporaries, an impression shared by many viewers today. Yet, assessing the accuracy of realist paintings like Constable's is subjective or intuitive, even for professional art historians, making it difficult to say with certainty what set Constable's skies apart from those of his contemporaries. Our goal is to contribute to a more objective understanding of Constable's realism. We propose a new machine-learning-based paradigm for studying pictorial realism in an explainable way. Our framework assesses realism by measuring the similarity between clouds painted by artists noted for their skies, like Constable, and photographs of clouds. The experimental results of cloud classification show that Constable approximates more consistently than his contemporaries the formal features of actual clouds in his paintings. The study, as a novel interdisciplinary approach that combines computer vision and machine learning, meteorology, and art history, is a springboard for broader and deeper analyses of pictorial realism.

Weiming Hu, Guido Cervone, George Young et al.

The Analog Ensemble (AnEn) technique has been shown effective on several weather problems. Unlike previous weather analogs that are sought within a large spatial domain and an extended temporal window, AnEn strictly confines space and time, and independently generates results at each grid point within a short time window. AnEn can find similar forecasts that lead to accurate and calibrated ensemble forecasts. The central core of the AnEn technique is a similarity metric that sorts historical forecasts with respect to a new target prediction. A commonly used metric is Euclidean distance. However, a significant difficulty using this metric is the definition of the weights for all the parameters. Generally, feature selection and extensive weight search are needed. This paper proposes a novel definition of weather analogs through a Machine Learning (ML) based similarity metric. The similarity metric uses neural networks that are trained and instantiated to search for weather analogs. This new metric allows incorporating all variables without requiring a prior feature selection and weight optimization. Experiments are presented on the application of this new metric to forecast wind speed and solar irradiance. Results show that the ML metric generally outperforms the original metric. The ML metric has a better capability to correct for larger errors and to take advantage of a larger search repository. Spatial predictions using a learned metric also show the ability to define effective latent features that are transferable to other locations.