Nathan Huet

Stephan Clémençon, Nathan Huet, Anne Sabourin

We establish a statistical learning theoretical framework aimed at extrapolation, or out-of-domain generalization, on the unobserved tails of covariates in continuous regression problems. Our strategy involves performing statistical regression on a subsample of observations with continuous labels that are the furthest away from the origin, focusing specifically on their angular components. The underlying assumptions of our approach are grounded in the theory of multivariate regular variation, a cornerstone of extreme value theory. We address the stylized problem of nonparametric least squares regression with predictors chosen from a Vapnik-Chervonenkis class. This work contributes to a broader initiative to develop statistical learning theoretical foundations for supervised learning strategies that enhance performance on the supposedly heavy tails of covariates. Previous efforts in this area have focused exclusively on binary classification on extreme covariates. Although the continuous target setting necessitates different techniques and regularity assumptions, our main results echo findings from earlier studies. We quantify the predictive performance on tail regions in terms of excess risk, presenting it as a finite sample risk bound with a clear bias-variance decomposition. Numerical experiments with simulated and real data illustrate our theoretical findings.

Nathan Huet, Philippe Naveau, Anne Sabourin

Appropriate modelling of extreme skew surges is crucial, particularly for coastal risk management. Our study focuses on modelling extreme skew surges along the French Atlantic coast, with a particular emphasis on investigating the extremal dependence structure between stations. We employ the peak-over-threshold framework, where a multivariate extreme event is defined whenever at least one location records a large value, though not necessarily all stations simultaneously. A novel method for determining an appropriate level (threshold) above which observations can be classified as extreme is proposed. Two complementary approaches are explored. First, the multivariate generalized Pareto distribution is employed to model extremes, leveraging its properties to derive a generative model that predicts extreme skew surges at one station based on observed extremes at nearby stations. Second, a novel extreme regression framework is assessed for point predictions. This specific regression framework enables accurate point predictions using only the "angle" of input variables, i.e. input variables divided by their norms. The ultimate objective is to reconstruct historical skew surge time series at stations with limited data. This is achieved by integrating extreme skew surge data from stations with longer records, such as Brest and Saint-Nazaire, which provide over 150 years of observations.