Marco Pavone

Yan Wang, Wenjie Luo, Junjie Bai et al. · nvidia

End-to-end architectures trained via imitation learning have advanced autonomous driving by scaling model size and data, yet performance remains brittle in safety-critical long-tail scenarios where supervision is sparse and causal understanding is limited. To address this, we introduce Alpamayo-R1 (AR1), a vision-language-action model (VLA) that integrates Chain of Causation reasoning with trajectory planning to enhance decision-making in complex driving scenarios. Our approach features three key innovations: (1) the Chain of Causation (CoC) dataset, built through a hybrid auto-labeling and human-in-the-loop pipeline producing decision-grounded, causally linked reasoning traces aligned with driving behaviors; (2) a modular VLA architecture combining Cosmos-Reason, a Vision-Language Model pre-trained for Physical AI applications, with a diffusion-based trajectory decoder that generates dynamically feasible plans in real time; (3) a multi-stage training strategy using supervised fine-tuning to elicit reasoning and reinforcement learning (RL) to optimize reasoning quality via large reasoning model feedback and enforce reasoning-action consistency. Evaluation shows AR1 achieves up to a 12% improvement in planning accuracy on challenging cases compared to a trajectory-only baseline, with a 35% reduction in off-road rate and 25% reduction in close encounter rate in closed-loop simulation. RL post-training improves reasoning quality by 45% as measured by a large reasoning model critic and reasoning-action consistency by 37%. Model scaling from 0.5B to 7B parameters shows consistent improvements. On-vehicle road tests confirm real-time performance (99 ms latency) and successful urban deployment. By bridging interpretable reasoning with precise control, AR1 demonstrates a practical path towards Level 4 autonomous driving. We plan to release AR1 models and a subset of the CoC in a future update.

Kevin Lin, Christopher Agia, Toki Migimatsu et al. · microsoft-research, stanford

We propose Text2Motion, a language-based planning framework enabling robots to solve sequential manipulation tasks that require long-horizon reasoning. Given a natural language instruction, our framework constructs both a task- and motion-level plan that is verified to reach inferred symbolic goals. Text2Motion uses feasibility heuristics encoded in Q-functions of a library of skills to guide task planning with Large Language Models. Whereas previous language-based planners only consider the feasibility of individual skills, Text2Motion actively resolves geometric dependencies spanning skill sequences by performing geometric feasibility planning during its search. We evaluate our method on a suite of problems that require long-horizon reasoning, interpretation of abstract goals, and handling of partial affordance perception. Our experiments show that Text2Motion can solve these challenging problems with a success rate of 82%, while prior state-of-the-art language-based planning methods only achieve 13%. Text2Motion thus provides promising generalization characteristics to semantically diverse sequential manipulation tasks with geometric dependencies between skills.

Danfei Xu, Yuxiao Chen, Boris Ivanovic et al.

Simulation is the key to scaling up validation and verification for robotic systems such as autonomous vehicles. Despite advances in high-fidelity physics and sensor simulation, a critical gap remains in simulating realistic behaviors of road users. This is because, unlike simulating physics and graphics, devising first principle models for human-like behaviors is generally infeasible. In this work, we take a data-driven approach and propose a method that can learn to generate traffic behaviors from real-world driving logs. The method achieves high sample efficiency and behavior diversity by exploiting the bi-level hierarchy of driving behaviors by decoupling the traffic simulation problem into high-level intent inference and low-level driving behavior imitation. The method also incorporates a planning module to obtain stable long-horizon behaviors. We empirically validate our method, named Bi-level Imitation for Traffic Simulation (BITS), with scenarios from two large-scale driving datasets and show that BITS achieves balanced traffic simulation performance in realism, diversity, and long-horizon stability. We also explore ways to evaluate behavior realism and introduce a suite of evaluation metrics for traffic simulation. Finally, as part of our core contributions, we develop and open source a software tool that unifies data formats across different driving datasets and converts scenes from existing datasets into interactive simulation environments. For additional information and videos, see https://sites.google.com/view/nvr-bits2022/home

Katie Z Luo, Xinshuo Weng, Yan Wang et al.

Autonomous driving has traditionally relied heavily on costly and labor-intensive High Definition (HD) maps, hindering scalability. In contrast, Standard Definition (SD) maps are more affordable and have worldwide coverage, offering a scalable alternative. In this work, we systematically explore the effect of SD maps for real-time lane-topology understanding. We propose a novel framework to integrate SD maps into online map prediction and propose a Transformer-based encoder, SD Map Encoder Representations from transFormers, to leverage priors in SD maps for the lane-topology prediction task. This enhancement consistently and significantly boosts (by up to 60%) lane detection and topology prediction on current state-of-the-art online map prediction methods without bells and whistles and can be immediately incorporated into any Transformer-based lane-topology method. Code is available at https://github.com/NVlabs/SMERF.

Spencer M. Richards, Navid Azizan, Jean-Jacques Slotine et al. · mit

Real-time adaptation is imperative to the control of robots operating in complex, dynamic environments. Adaptive control laws can endow even nonlinear systems with good trajectory tracking performance, provided that any uncertain dynamics terms are linearly parameterizable with known nonlinear features. However, it is often difficult to specify such features a priori, such as for aerodynamic disturbances on rotorcraft or interaction forces between a manipulator arm and various objects. In this paper, we turn to data-driven modeling with neural networks to learn, offline from past data, an adaptive controller with an internal parametric model of these nonlinear features. Our key insight is that we can better prepare the controller for deployment with control-oriented meta-learning of features in closed-loop simulation, rather than regression-oriented meta-learning of features to fit input-output data. Specifically, we meta-learn the adaptive controller with closed-loop tracking simulation as the base-learner and the average tracking error as the meta-objective. With both fully-actuated and underactuated nonlinear planar rotorcraft subject to wind, we demonstrate that our adaptive controller outperforms other controllers trained with regression-oriented meta-learning when deployed in closed-loop for trajectory tracking control.

Chih-Yuan Chiu, Devansh Jalota, Marco Pavone

Credit-based congestion pricing (CBCP) and discount-based congestion pricing (DBCP), which respectively allot travel credits and toll discounts to subsidize low-income users' access to tolled roads, have emerged as promising policies for alleviating the societal inequity concerns of congestion pricing. However, since real-world implementations of CBCP and DBCP are nascent, their relative merits remain unclear. In this work, we compare the efficacy of deploying CBCP and DBCP in reducing user costs and increasing toll revenues. We first formulate a non-atomic congestion game in which low-income users receive a travel credit or toll discount for accessing tolled lanes. We establish that, in our formulation, Nash equilibrium flows always exist and can be computed or well approximated via convex programming. Our main result establishes a set of practically relevant conditions under which DBCP provably outperforms CBCP in inducing equilibrium outcomes that minimize a given societal cost, which encodes user cost reduction and toll revenue maximization. Finally, we validate our theoretical contributions via a case study of the 101 Express Lanes Project, a CBCP program implemented in the San Francisco Bay Area.

Junwon Seo, Sushant Veer, Ran Tian et al.

Video world models (WMs) have shown promise for policy evaluation and improvement by imagining realistic future observations conditioned on ego-robot actions. While WMs can model distributions over futures, policy evaluation and improvement typically rely on nominal imaginations, which can miss high-impact outcomes of robot actions unless prohibitively many samples are drawn. To enable robust policy evaluation and improvement over WM imaginations, we propose StressDream, which steers imaginations toward high-impact yet plausible outcomes specified at inference time by optimizing the initial noise of diffusion-based WMs. However, optimizing high-dimensional noise is challenging: the optimization must reason about nuanced, scene-dependent target events in generated videos while avoiding out-of-distribution (OOD) noise that yields implausible imaginations. We address this with two complementary objectives: a semantic objective with a Vision-Language Model that provides informative gradients by reasoning about the generated video, and a plausibility objective that prevents the optimized noise from drifting OOD. With state-of-the-art video world models for autonomous driving and robotic manipulation, we show that StressDream effectively steers imaginations toward high-impact yet plausible outcomes specified by text at inference time, such as task failures, enabling robust policy evaluation and improvement by identifying actions whose plausible futures include undesirable outcomes. Video results are available at https://junwon.me/StressDream/.

Boris Ivanovic, Guanyu Song, Igor Gilitschenski et al.

The field of trajectory forecasting has grown significantly in recent years, partially owing to the release of numerous large-scale, real-world human trajectory datasets for autonomous vehicles (AVs) and pedestrian motion tracking. While such datasets have been a boon for the community, they each use custom and unique data formats and APIs, making it cumbersome for researchers to train and evaluate methods across multiple datasets. To remedy this, we present trajdata: a unified interface to multiple human trajectory datasets. At its core, trajdata provides a simple, uniform, and efficient representation and API for trajectory and map data. As a demonstration of its capabilities, in this work we conduct a comprehensive empirical evaluation of existing trajectory datasets, providing users with a rich understanding of the data underpinning much of current pedestrian and AV motion forecasting research, and proposing suggestions for future datasets from these insights. trajdata is permissively licensed (Apache 2.0) and can be accessed online at https://github.com/NVlabs/trajdata

Robin Brown, Edward Schmerling, Navid Azizan et al. · mit

Verifying that input-output relationships of a neural network conform to prescribed operational specifications is a key enabler towards deploying these networks in safety-critical applications. Semidefinite programming (SDP)-based approaches to Rectified Linear Unit (ReLU) network verification transcribe this problem into an optimization problem, where the accuracy of any such formulation reflects the level of fidelity in how the neural network computation is represented, as well as the relaxations of intractable constraints. While the literature contains much progress on improving the tightness of SDP formulations while maintaining tractability, comparatively little work has been devoted to the other extreme, i.e., how to most accurately capture the original verification problem before SDP relaxation. In this work, we develop an exact, convex formulation of verification as a completely positive program (CPP), and provide analysis showing that our formulation is minimal -- the removal of any constraint fundamentally misrepresents the neural network computation. We leverage our formulation to provide a unifying view of existing approaches, and give insight into the source of large relaxation gaps observed in some cases.

Aditi, Niket Agarwal, Arslan Ali et al.

We introduce Cosmos 3, a family of omnimodal world models designed to jointly process and generate language, image, video, audio, and action sequences within a unified mixture-of-transformers architecture. By supporting highly flexible input-output configurations, Cosmos 3 seamlessly unifies critical modalities for Physical AI -- effectively subsuming vision-language models, video generators, world simulators, and world-action models into a single framework. Our evaluation demonstrates that Cosmos 3 establishes a new state-of-the-art across a diverse suite of understanding and generation tasks, demonstrating omnimodal world models as scalable, general-purpose backbones for embodied agents. Our post-trained Cosmos 3 models were ranked as the best open-source Text-to-Image and Image-to-Video models by Artificial Analysis, and the best policy model by RoboArena at the time the technical report was written. To accelerate open research and deployment in Physical AI, we make our code, model checkpoints, curated synthetic datasets, and evaluation benchmark available under the Linux Foundation's OpenMDW-1.1 https://openmdw.ai/license/1-1/ License at https://github.com/nvidia/cosmos}{github.com/nvidia/cosmos and https://huggingface.co/collections/nvidia/cosmos3 . The project website is available at https://research.nvidia.com/labs/cosmos-lab/cosmos3 .

Spencer M. Richards, Jean-Jacques Slotine, Navid Azizan et al. · mit

Even for known nonlinear dynamical systems, feedback controller synthesis is a difficult problem that often requires leveraging the particular structure of the dynamics to induce a stable closed-loop system. For general nonlinear models, including those fit to data, there may not be enough known structure to reliably synthesize a stabilizing feedback controller. In this paper, we discuss a state-dependent nonlinear tracking controller formulation based on a state-dependent Riccati equation for general nonlinear control-affine systems. This formulation depends on a nonlinear factorization of the system of vector fields defining the control-affine dynamics, which always exists under mild smoothness assumptions. We propose a method for learning this factorization from a finite set of data. On a variety of simulated nonlinear dynamical systems, we empirically demonstrate the efficacy of learned versions of this controller in stable trajectory tracking. Alongside our learning method, we evaluate recent ideas in jointly learning a controller and stabilizability certificate for known dynamical systems; we show experimentally that such methods can be frail in comparison.

Mahmoud Selim, Amr Alanwar, Shreyas Kousik et al. · gatech

Reinforcement learning (RL) is capable of sophisticated motion planning and control for robots in uncertain environments. However, state-of-the-art deep RL approaches typically lack safety guarantees, especially when the robot and environment models are unknown. To justify widespread deployment, robots must respect safety constraints without sacrificing performance. Thus, we propose a Black-box Reachability-based Safety Layer (BRSL) with three main components: (1) data-driven reachability analysis for a black-box robot model, (2) a trajectory rollout planner that predicts future actions and observations using an ensemble of neural networks trained online, and (3) a differentiable polytope collision check between the reachable set and obstacles that enables correcting unsafe actions. In simulation, BRSL outperforms other state-of-the-art safe RL methods on a Turtlebot 3, a quadrotor, a trajectory-tracking point mass, and a hexarotor in wind with an unsafe set adjacent to the area of highest reward.

Fan-Yun Sun, Jonathan Tremblay, Valts Blukis et al. · microsoft-research, mit

We propose Filtering Inversion (FINV), a learning framework and optimization process that predicts a renderable 3D object representation from one or few partial views. FINV addresses the challenge of synthesizing novel views of objects from partial observations, spanning cases where the object is not entirely in view, is partially occluded, or is only observed from similar views. To achieve this, FINV learns shape priors by training a 3D generative model. At inference, given one or more views of a novel real-world object, FINV first finds a set of latent codes for the object by inverting the generative model from multiple initial seeds. Maintaining the set of latent codes, FINV filters and resamples them after receiving each new observation, akin to particle filtering. The generator is then finetuned for each latent code on the available views in order to adapt to novel objects. We show that FINV successfully synthesizes novel views of real-world objects (e.g., chairs, tables, and cars), even if the generative prior is trained only on synthetic objects. The ability to address the sim-to-real problem allows FINV to be used for object categories without real-world datasets. FINV achieves state-of-the-art performance on multiple real-world datasets, recovers object shape and texture from partial and sparse views, is robust to occlusion, and is able to incrementally improve its representation with more observations.

Tim Salzmann, Elia Kaufmann, Jon Arrizabalaga et al.

Model Predictive Control (MPC) has become a popular framework in embedded control for high-performance autonomous systems. However, to achieve good control performance using MPC, an accurate dynamics model is key. To maintain real-time operation, the dynamics models used on embedded systems have been limited to simple first-principle models, which substantially limits their representative power. In contrast to such simple models, machine learning approaches, specifically neural networks, have been shown to accurately model even complex dynamic effects, but their large computational complexity hindered combination with fast real-time iteration loops. With this work, we present Real-time Neural MPC, a framework to efficiently integrate large, complex neural network architectures as dynamics models within a model-predictive control pipeline. Our experiments, performed in simulation and the real world onboard a highly agile quadrotor platform, demonstrate the capabilities of the described system to run learned models with, previously infeasible, large modeling capacity using gradient-based online optimization MPC. Compared to prior implementations of neural networks in online optimization MPC we can leverage models of over 4000 times larger parametric capacity in a 50Hz real-time window on an embedded platform. Further, we show the feasibility of our framework on real-world problems by reducing the positional tracking error by up to 82% when compared to state-of-the-art MPC approaches without neural network dynamics.

Somrita Banerjee, Apoorva Sharma, Edward Schmerling et al.

As input distributions evolve over a mission lifetime, maintaining performance of learning-based models becomes challenging. This paper presents a framework to incrementally retrain a model by selecting a subset of test inputs to label, which allows the model to adapt to changing input distributions. Algorithms within this framework are evaluated based on (1) model performance throughout mission lifetime and (2) cumulative costs associated with labeling and model retraining. We provide an open-source benchmark of a satellite pose estimation model trained on images of a satellite in space and deployed in novel scenarios (e.g., different backgrounds or misbehaving pixels), where algorithms are evaluated on their ability to maintain high performance by retraining on a subset of inputs. We also propose a novel algorithm to select a diverse subset of inputs for labeling, by characterizing the information gain from an input using Bayesian uncertainty quantification and choosing a subset that maximizes collective information gain using concepts from batch active learning. We show that our algorithm outperforms others on the benchmark, e.g., achieves comparable performance to an algorithm that labels 100% of inputs, while only labeling 50% of inputs, resulting in low costs and high performance over the mission lifetime.

Jiawei Yang, Marco Pavone, Yue Wang

Novel view synthesis with sparse inputs is a challenging problem for neural radiance fields (NeRF). Recent efforts alleviate this challenge by introducing external supervision, such as pre-trained models and extra depth signals, and by non-trivial patch-based rendering. In this paper, we present Frequency regularized NeRF (FreeNeRF), a surprisingly simple baseline that outperforms previous methods with minimal modifications to the plain NeRF. We analyze the key challenges in few-shot neural rendering and find that frequency plays an important role in NeRF's training. Based on the analysis, we propose two regularization terms. One is to regularize the frequency range of NeRF's inputs, while the other is to penalize the near-camera density fields. Both techniques are ``free lunches'' at no additional computational cost. We demonstrate that even with one line of code change, the original NeRF can achieve similar performance as other complicated methods in the few-shot setting. FreeNeRF achieves state-of-the-art performance across diverse datasets, including Blender, DTU, and LLFF. We hope this simple baseline will motivate a rethinking of the fundamental role of frequency in NeRF's training under the low-data regime and beyond.

Daniel Morton, Pranit Mohnot, Marco Pavone

Recent advances in reinforcement learning (RL) have demonstrated impressive whole-body agility for humanoid robots, yet ensuring safety and satisfying constraints -- particularly those specified after training -- remains a challenge. Towards this goal, we present ConstrainedMimic, a control framework that leverages whole-body kinematics and dynamics for real-time constraint enforcement within RL tracking policies. By integrating principles from operational space control and control barrier functions (CBFs), we enable the satisfaction of arbitrary runtime constraints on both the kinematic reference motion and the underlying dynamics. In whole-body motion-tracking and teleoperation experiments on a (simulated) Unitree G1 with a learned policy, we demonstrate collision avoidance (both with the robot body and external obstacles), joint limits, and center of mass stability constraints. By remaining consistent with the current contact mode and tracking objectives, we minimally restrict the capabilities of the policy when constraints are active. Our method is fully differentiable, runs on CPU, GPU, and TPU, and can be deployed at up to 300-500 Hz. All software will be freely available upon publication.

Ziyuan Zhong, Davis Rempe, Danfei Xu et al.

Controllable and realistic traffic simulation is critical for developing and verifying autonomous vehicles. Typical heuristic-based traffic models offer flexible control to make vehicles follow specific trajectories and traffic rules. On the other hand, data-driven approaches generate realistic and human-like behaviors, improving transfer from simulated to real-world traffic. However, to the best of our knowledge, no traffic model offers both controllability and realism. In this work, we develop a conditional diffusion model for controllable traffic generation (CTG) that allows users to control desired properties of trajectories at test time (e.g., reach a goal or follow a speed limit) while maintaining realism and physical feasibility through enforced dynamics. The key technical idea is to leverage recent advances from diffusion modeling and differentiable logic to guide generated trajectories to meet rules defined using signal temporal logic (STL). We further extend guidance to multi-agent settings and enable interaction-based rules like collision avoidance. CTG is extensively evaluated on the nuScenes dataset for diverse and composite rules, demonstrating improvement over strong baselines in terms of the controllability-realism tradeoff.

Ziyuan Zhong, Davis Rempe, Yuxiao Chen et al.

Realistic and controllable traffic simulation is a core capability that is necessary to accelerate autonomous vehicle (AV) development. However, current approaches for controlling learning-based traffic models require significant domain expertise and are difficult for practitioners to use. To remedy this, we present CTG++, a scene-level conditional diffusion model that can be guided by language instructions. Developing this requires tackling two challenges: the need for a realistic and controllable traffic model backbone, and an effective method to interface with a traffic model using language. To address these challenges, we first propose a scene-level diffusion model equipped with a spatio-temporal transformer backbone, which generates realistic and controllable traffic. We then harness a large language model (LLM) to convert a user's query into a loss function, guiding the diffusion model towards query-compliant generation. Through comprehensive evaluation, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method in generating realistic, query-compliant traffic simulations.

Yulong Cao, Chaowei Xiao, Anima Anandkumar et al.

Trajectory prediction is essential for autonomous vehicles (AVs) to plan correct and safe driving behaviors. While many prior works aim to achieve higher prediction accuracy, few study the adversarial robustness of their methods. To bridge this gap, we propose to study the adversarial robustness of data-driven trajectory prediction systems. We devise an optimization-based adversarial attack framework that leverages a carefully-designed differentiable dynamic model to generate realistic adversarial trajectories. Empirically, we benchmark the adversarial robustness of state-of-the-art prediction models and show that our attack increases the prediction error for both general metrics and planning-aware metrics by more than 50% and 37%. We also show that our attack can lead an AV to drive off road or collide into other vehicles in simulation. Finally, we demonstrate how to mitigate the adversarial attacks using an adversarial training scheme.

Kyle Treleaven, Marco Pavone, Emilio Frazzoli

The Stacker Crane Problem is NP-Hard and the best known approximation algorithm only provides a 9/5 approximation ratio. The objective of this paper is threefold. First, by embedding the problem within a stochastic framework, we present a novel algorithm for the SCP that: (i) is asymptotically optimal, i.e., it produces, almost surely, a solution approaching the optimal one as the number of pickups/deliveries goes to infinity; and (ii) has computational complexity $O(n^{2+\eps})$, where $n$ is the number of pickup/delivery pairs and $\eps$ is an arbitrarily small positive constant. Second, we asymptotically characterize the length of the optimal SCP tour. Finally, we study a dynamic version of the SCP, whereby pickup and delivery requests arrive according to a Poisson process, and which serves as a model for large-scale demand-responsive transport (DRT) systems. For such a dynamic counterpart of the SCP, we derive a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of stable vehicle routing policies, which depends only on the workspace geometry, the stochastic distributions of pickup and delivery points, the arrival rate of requests, and the number of vehicles. Our results leverage a novel connection between the Euclidean Bipartite Matching Problem and the theory of random permutations, and, for the dynamic setting, exhibit novel features that are absent in traditional spatially-distributed queueing systems.

Yuxiao Chen, Boris Ivanovic, Marco Pavone

Trajectory prediction is a critical functionality of autonomous systems that share environments with uncontrolled agents, one prominent example being self-driving vehicles. Currently, most prediction methods do not enforce scene consistency, i.e., there are a substantial amount of self-collisions between predicted trajectories of different agents in the scene. Moreover, many approaches generate individual trajectory predictions per agent instead of joint trajectory predictions of the whole scene, which makes downstream planning difficult. In this work, we present ScePT, a policy planning-based trajectory prediction model that generates accurate, scene-consistent trajectory predictions suitable for autonomous system motion planning. It explicitly enforces scene consistency and learns an agent interaction policy that can be used for conditional prediction. Experiments on multiple real-world pedestrians and autonomous vehicle datasets show that ScePT} matches current state-of-the-art prediction accuracy with significantly improved scene consistency. We also demonstrate ScePT's ability to work with a downstream contingency planner.

Ramon Iglesias, Federico Rossi, Rick Zhang et al.

In this paper we present a queueing network approach to the problem of routing and rebalancing a fleet of self-driving vehicles providing on-demand mobility within a capacitated road network. We refer to such systems as autonomous mobility-on-demand systems, or AMoD. We first cast an AMoD system into a closed, multi-class BCMP queueing network model. Second, we present analysis tools that allow the characterization of performance metrics for a given routing policy, in terms, e.g., of vehicle availabilities, and first and second order moments of vehicle throughput. Third, we propose a scalable method for the synthesis of routing policies, with performance guarantees in the limit of large fleet sizes. Finally, we validate our theoretical results on a case study of New York City. Collectively, this paper provides a unifying framework for the analysis and control of AMoD systems, which subsumes earlier Jackson and network flow models, provides a quite large set of modeling options (e.g., the inclusion of road capacities and general travel time distributions), and allows the analysis of second and higher-order moments for the performance metrics.

Peter Karkus, Boris Ivanovic, Shie Mannor et al.

Autonomous vehicle (AV) stacks are typically built in a modular fashion, with explicit components performing detection, tracking, prediction, planning, control, etc. While modularity improves reusability, interpretability, and generalizability, it also suffers from compounding errors, information bottlenecks, and integration challenges. To overcome these challenges, a prominent approach is to convert the AV stack into an end-to-end neural network and train it with data. While such approaches have achieved impressive results, they typically lack interpretability and reusability, and they eschew principled analytical components, such as planning and control, in favor of deep neural networks. To enable the joint optimization of AV stacks while retaining modularity, we present DiffStack, a differentiable and modular stack for prediction, planning, and control. Crucially, our model-based planning and control algorithms leverage recent advancements in differentiable optimization to produce gradients, enabling optimization of upstream components, such as prediction, via backpropagation through planning and control. Our results on the nuScenes dataset indicate that end-to-end training with DiffStack yields substantial improvements in open-loop and closed-loop planning metrics by, e.g., learning to make fewer prediction errors that would affect planning. Beyond these immediate benefits, DiffStack opens up new opportunities for fully data-driven yet modular and interpretable AV architectures. Project website: https://sites.google.com/view/diffstack

Shuhan Tan, Boris Ivanovic, Xinshuo Weng et al.

Simulation forms the backbone of modern self-driving development. Simulators help develop, test, and improve driving systems without putting humans, vehicles, or their environment at risk. However, simulators face a major challenge: They rely on realistic, scalable, yet interesting content. While recent advances in rendering and scene reconstruction make great strides in creating static scene assets, modeling their layout, dynamics, and behaviors remains challenging. In this work, we turn to language as a source of supervision for dynamic traffic scene generation. Our model, LCTGen, combines a large language model with a transformer-based decoder architecture that selects likely map locations from a dataset of maps, and produces an initial traffic distribution, as well as the dynamics of each vehicle. LCTGen outperforms prior work in both unconditional and conditional traffic scene generation in terms of realism and fidelity. Code and video will be available at https://ariostgx.github.io/lctgen.

Rachel Luo, Michael Watson, Apoorva Sharma et al.

Rigorous evaluation of learning-based robotic systems is an essential prerequisite for deployment. However, real-world test data is expensive to gather; moreover, in a typical iterative development context, data gathered from the latest policy is necessarily limited in scale. This motivates evaluation methodologies that make use of heterogeneous data sources, including simulation, historical policy logs, and data collected from related platforms or environments. While such auxiliary data are abundant and inexpensive, they are generally not directly representative of real-world outcomes -- for example, performance in simulation may differ substantially from performance in the real world -- making their principled use for high-confidence performance estimation challenging. In this paper, we introduce X4Val, a general framework for variance-reduced real-world metric estimation in the presence of non-paired, multi-domain data. X4Val embeds samples from real and auxiliary domains into a shared representation space and learns a transferable predictor of real-world metrics; this learned predictor is then incorporated into a control-variates estimator, enabling variance reduction even when paired samples are unavailable. We provide theoretical analysis and empirical evaluations on autonomous driving and real-world robot manipulation tasks, domains across which X4Val achieves up to 38.4% variance reduction and demonstrates consistent improvements over strong baselines. These results show that non-paired, heterogeneous data can be leveraged to substantially improve the sample efficiency of rigorous robotic system validation.

Matthew Tsao, Ramon Iglesias, Marco Pavone

This paper presents a stochastic, model predictive control (MPC) algorithm that leverages short-term probabilistic forecasts for dispatching and rebalancing Autonomous Mobility-on-Demand systems (AMoD, i.e. fleets of self-driving vehicles). We first present the core stochastic optimization problem in terms of a time-expanded network flow model. Then, to ameliorate its tractability, we present two key relaxations. First, we replace the original stochastic problem with a Sample Average Approximation (SAA), and characterize the performance guarantees. Second, we separate the controller into two separate parts to address the task of assigning vehicles to the outstanding customers separate from that of rebalancing. This enables the problem to be solved as two totally unimodular linear programs, and thus easily scalable to large problem sizes. Finally, we test the proposed algorithm in two scenarios based on real data and show that it outperforms prior state-of-the-art algorithms. In particular, in a simulation using customer data from DiDi Chuxing, the algorithm presented here exhibits a 62.3 percent reduction in customer waiting time compared to state of the art non-stochastic algorithms.

Yulong Cao, Danfei Xu, Xinshuo Weng et al.

Trajectory prediction using deep neural networks (DNNs) is an essential component of autonomous driving (AD) systems. However, these methods are vulnerable to adversarial attacks, leading to serious consequences such as collisions. In this work, we identify two key ingredients to defend trajectory prediction models against adversarial attacks including (1) designing effective adversarial training methods and (2) adding domain-specific data augmentation to mitigate the performance degradation on clean data. We demonstrate that our method is able to improve the performance by 46% on adversarial data and at the cost of only 3% performance degradation on clean data, compared to the model trained with clean data. Additionally, compared to existing robust methods, our method can improve performance by 21% on adversarial examples and 9% on clean data. Our robust model is evaluated with a planner to study its downstream impacts. We demonstrate that our model can significantly reduce the severe accident rates (e.g., collisions and off-road driving).

Heng Yang, Marco Pavone

The two-stage object pose estimation paradigm first detects semantic keypoints on the image and then estimates the 6D pose by minimizing reprojection errors. Despite performing well on standard benchmarks, existing techniques offer no provable guarantees on the quality and uncertainty of the estimation. In this paper, we inject two fundamental changes, namely conformal keypoint detection and geometric uncertainty propagation, into the two-stage paradigm and propose the first pose estimator that endows an estimation with provable and computable worst-case error bounds. On one hand, conformal keypoint detection applies the statistical machinery of inductive conformal prediction to convert heuristic keypoint detections into circular or elliptical prediction sets that cover the groundtruth keypoints with a user-specified marginal probability (e.g., 90%). Geometric uncertainty propagation, on the other, propagates the geometric constraints on the keypoints to the 6D object pose, leading to a Pose UnceRtainty SEt (PURSE) that guarantees coverage of the groundtruth pose with the same probability. The PURSE, however, is a nonconvex set that does not directly lead to estimated poses and uncertainties. Therefore, we develop RANdom SAmple averaGing (RANSAG) to compute an average pose and apply semidefinite relaxation to upper bound the worst-case errors between the average pose and the groundtruth. On the LineMOD Occlusion dataset we demonstrate: (i) the PURSE covers the groundtruth with valid probabilities; (ii) the worst-case error bounds provide correct uncertainty quantification; and (iii) the average pose achieves better or similar accuracy as representative methods based on sparse keypoints.

Jiawei Yang, Boris Ivanovic, Or Litany et al.

We present EmerNeRF, a simple yet powerful approach for learning spatial-temporal representations of dynamic driving scenes. Grounded in neural fields, EmerNeRF simultaneously captures scene geometry, appearance, motion, and semantics via self-bootstrapping. EmerNeRF hinges upon two core components: First, it stratifies scenes into static and dynamic fields. This decomposition emerges purely from self-supervision, enabling our model to learn from general, in-the-wild data sources. Second, EmerNeRF parameterizes an induced flow field from the dynamic field and uses this flow field to further aggregate multi-frame features, amplifying the rendering precision of dynamic objects. Coupling these three fields (static, dynamic, and flow) enables EmerNeRF to represent highly-dynamic scenes self-sufficiently, without relying on ground truth object annotations or pre-trained models for dynamic object segmentation or optical flow estimation. Our method achieves state-of-the-art performance in sensor simulation, significantly outperforming previous methods when reconstructing static (+2.93 PSNR) and dynamic (+3.70 PSNR) scenes. In addition, to bolster EmerNeRF's semantic generalization, we lift 2D visual foundation model features into 4D space-time and address a general positional bias in modern Transformers, significantly boosting 3D perception performance (e.g., 37.50% relative improvement in occupancy prediction accuracy on average). Finally, we construct a diverse and challenging 120-sequence dataset to benchmark neural fields under extreme and highly-dynamic settings.

Rohan Sinha, Apoorva Sharma, Somrita Banerjee et al.

When testing conditions differ from those represented in training data, so-called out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs can mar the reliability of learned components in the modern robot autonomy stack. Therefore, coping with OOD data is an important challenge on the path towards trustworthy learning-enabled open-world autonomy. In this paper, we aim to demystify the topic of OOD data and its associated challenges in the context of data-driven robotic systems, drawing connections to emerging paradigms in the ML community that study the effect of OOD data on learned models in isolation. We argue that as roboticists, we should reason about the overall \textit{system-level} competence of a robot as it operates in OOD conditions. We highlight key research questions around this system-level view of OOD problems to guide future research toward safe and reliable learning-enabled autonomy.

Boris Ivanovic, James Harrison, Marco Pavone

Learning-based behavior prediction methods are increasingly being deployed in real-world autonomous systems, e.g., in fleets of self-driving vehicles, which are beginning to commercially operate in major cities across the world. Despite their advancements, however, the vast majority of prediction systems are specialized to a set of well-explored geographic regions or operational design domains, complicating deployment to additional cities, countries, or continents. Towards this end, we present a novel method for efficiently adapting behavior prediction models to new environments. Our approach leverages recent advances in meta-learning, specifically Bayesian regression, to augment existing behavior prediction models with an adaptive layer that enables efficient domain transfer via offline fine-tuning, online adaptation, or both. Experiments across multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our method can efficiently adapt to a variety of unseen environments.

Tim Salzmann, Marco Pavone, Markus Ryll

Autonomous systems and humans are increasingly sharing the same space. Robots work side by side or even hand in hand with humans to balance each other's limitations. Such cooperative interactions are ever more sophisticated. Thus, the ability to reason not just about a human's center of gravity position, but also its granular motion is an important prerequisite for human-robot interaction. Though, many algorithms ignore the multimodal nature of humans or neglect uncertainty in their motion forecasts. We present Motron, a multimodal, probabilistic, graph-structured model, that captures human's multimodality using probabilistic methods while being able to output deterministic maximum-likelihood motions and corresponding confidence values for each mode. Our model aims to be tightly integrated with the robotic planning-control-interaction loop; outputting physically feasible human motions and being computationally efficient. We demonstrate the performance of our model on several challenging real-world motion forecasting datasets, outperforming a wide array of generative/variational methods while providing state-of-the-art single-output motions if required. Both using significantly less computational power than state-of-the art algorithms.

Tobias Enders, James Harrison, Marco Pavone et al.

We consider the sequential decision-making problem of making proactive request assignment and rejection decisions for a profit-maximizing operator of an autonomous mobility on demand system. We formalize this problem as a Markov decision process and propose a novel combination of multi-agent Soft Actor-Critic and weighted bipartite matching to obtain an anticipative control policy. Thereby, we factorize the operator's otherwise intractable action space, but still obtain a globally coordinated decision. Experiments based on real-world taxi data show that our method outperforms state of the art benchmarks with respect to performance, stability, and computational tractability.

Rick Zhang, Marco Pavone

This paper presents a queueing network approach to the analysis and control of mobility-on-demand (MoD) systems for urban personal transportation. A MoD system consists of a fleet of vehicles providing one-way car sharing service and a team of drivers to rebalance such vehicles. The drivers then rebalance themselves by driving select customers similar to a taxi service. We model the MoD system as two coupled closed Jackson networks with passenger loss. We show that the system can be approximately balanced by solving two decoupled linear programs and exactly balanced through nonlinear optimization. The rebalancing techniques are applied to a system sizing example using taxi data in three neighborhoods of Manhattan, which suggests that the optimal vehicle-to-driver ratio in a MoD system is between 3 and 5. Lastly, we formulate a real-time closed-loop rebalancing policy for drivers and demonstrate its stability (in terms of customer wait times) for typical system loads.

Eleanor Brosius, Yuji Takubo, Daniele Gammelli et al.

Trajectory optimization is a critical component for enabling safe and reliable autonomous operations in space exploration. As space missions increase in frequency, complexity, and scope, there is a growing need to rapidly formulate mathematically sound trajectory optimization problems that accurately reflect mission objectives and operational constraints. However, translating mission intent into tractable analytical formulations for trajectory optimization requires substantial domain expertise. This paper presents a framework that leverages large language models (LLMs) to translate natural language descriptions of mission requirements and constraints into executable trajectory optimization code and corresponding mathematical formulations. Experiments in spacecraft rendezvous scenarios demonstrate a high success rate in reconditioning a convex trajectory optimization problem from semantic mission requirements. Ultimately, this work highlights the potential of LLMs to bridge high-level intent and formal optimization models, enabling more flexible and efficient trajectory design of spacecraft.

Rachel Luo, Rohan Sinha, Yixiao Sun et al.

When deploying modern machine learning-enabled robotic systems in high-stakes applications, detecting distribution shift is critical. However, most existing methods for detecting distribution shift are not well-suited to robotics settings, where data often arrives in a streaming fashion and may be very high-dimensional. In this work, we present an online method for detecting distribution shift with guarantees on the false positive rate - i.e., when there is no distribution shift, our system is very unlikely (with probability $< ε$) to falsely issue an alert; any alerts that are issued should therefore be heeded. Our method is specifically designed for efficient detection even with high dimensional data, and it empirically achieves up to 11x faster detection on realistic robotics settings compared to prior work while maintaining a low false negative rate in practice (whenever there is a distribution shift in our experiments, our method indeed emits an alert). We demonstrate our approach in both simulation and hardware for a visual servoing task, and show that our method indeed issues an alert before a failure occurs.

Sumeet Singh, Yin-Lam Chow, Anirudha Majumdar et al.

In this paper we present a framework for risk-sensitive model predictive control (MPC) of linear systems affected by stochastic multiplicative uncertainty. Our key innovation is to consider a time-consistent, dynamic risk evaluation of the cumulative cost as the objective function to be minimized. This framework is axiomatically justified in terms of time-consistency of risk assessments, is amenable to dynamic optimization, and is unifying in the sense that it captures a full range of risk preferences from risk-neutral (i.e., expectation) to worst case. Within this framework, we propose and analyze an online risk-sensitive MPC algorithm that is provably stabilizing. Furthermore, by exploiting the dual representation of time-consistent, dynamic risk measures, we cast the computation of the MPC control law as a convex optimization problem amenable to real-time implementation. Simulation results are presented and discussed.

Joseph A. Starek, Edward Schmerling, Gabriel D. Maher et al.

This paper presents a sampling-based motion planning algorithm for real-time and propellant-optimized autonomous spacecraft trajectory generation in near-circular orbits. Specifically, this paper leverages recent algorithmic advances in the field of robot motion planning to the problem of impulsively-actuated, propellant-optimized rendezvous and proximity operations under the Clohessy-Wiltshire-Hill (CWH) dynamics model. The approach calls upon a modified version of the Fast Marching Tree (FMT*) algorithm to grow a set of feasible trajectories over a deterministic, low-dispersion set of sample points covering the free state space. To enforce safety, the tree is only grown over the subset of actively-safe samples, from which there exists a feasible one-burn collision avoidance maneuver that can safely circularize the spacecraft orbit along its coasting arc under a given set of potential thruster failures. Key features of the proposed algorithm include: (i) theoretical guarantees in terms of trajectory safety and performance, (ii) amenability to real-time implementation, and (iii) generality, in the sense that a large class of constraints can be handled directly. As a result, the proposed algorithm offers the potential for widespread application, ranging from on-orbit satellite servicing to orbital debris removal and autonomous inspection missions.

Yulu Gan, Ligeng Zhu, Dandan Shan et al.

Motion understanding is fundamental to physical reasoning, enabling models to infer dynamics and predict future states. However, state-of-the-art models still struggle on recent motion benchmarks, primarily due to the scarcity of large-scale, fine-grained motion datasets. Existing motion datasets are often constructed from costly manual annotation, severely limiting scalability. To address this challenge, we introduce FoundationMotion, a fully automated data curation pipeline that constructs large-scale motion datasets. Our approach first detects and tracks objects in videos to extract their trajectories, then leverages these trajectories and video frames with Large Language Models (LLMs) to generate fine-grained captions and diverse question-answer pairs about motion and spatial reasoning. Using datasets produced by this pipeline, we fine-tune open-source models including NVILA-Video-15B and Qwen2.5-7B, achieving substantial improvements in motion understanding without compromising performance on other tasks. Notably, our models outperform strong closed-source baselines like Gemini-2.5 Flash and large open-source models such as Qwen2.5-VL-72B across diverse motion understanding datasets and benchmarks. FoundationMotion thus provides a scalable solution for curating fine-grained motion datasets that enable effective fine-tuning of diverse models to enhance motion understanding and spatial reasoning capabilities.

Ziyu Chen, Jiawei Yang, Jiahui Huang et al.

We introduce OmniRe, a comprehensive system for efficiently creating high-fidelity digital twins of dynamic real-world scenes from on-device logs. Recent methods using neural fields or Gaussian Splatting primarily focus on vehicles, hindering a holistic framework for all dynamic foregrounds demanded by downstream applications, e.g., the simulation of human behavior. OmniRe extends beyond vehicle modeling to enable accurate, full-length reconstruction of diverse dynamic objects in urban scenes. Our approach builds scene graphs on 3DGS and constructs multiple Gaussian representations in canonical spaces that model various dynamic actors, including vehicles, pedestrians, cyclists, and others. OmniRe allows holistically reconstructing any dynamic object in the scene, enabling advanced simulations (~60Hz) that include human-participated scenarios, such as pedestrian behavior simulation and human-vehicle interaction. This comprehensive simulation capability is unmatched by existing methods. Extensive evaluations on the Waymo dataset show that our approach outperforms prior state-of-the-art methods quantitatively and qualitatively by a large margin. We further extend our results to 5 additional popular driving datasets to demonstrate its generalizability on common urban scenes.

Filippos Christianos, Peter Karkus, Boris Ivanovic et al.

Reasoning with occluded traffic agents is a significant open challenge for planning for autonomous vehicles. Recent deep learning models have shown impressive results for predicting occluded agents based on the behaviour of nearby visible agents; however, as we show in experiments, these models are difficult to integrate into downstream planning. To this end, we propose Bi-level Variational Occlusion Models (BiVO), a two-step generative model that first predicts likely locations of occluded agents, and then generates likely trajectories for the occluded agents. In contrast to existing methods, BiVO outputs a trajectory distribution which can then be sampled from and integrated into standard downstream planning. We evaluate the method in closed-loop replay simulation using the real-world nuScenes dataset. Our results suggest that BiVO can successfully learn to predict occluded agent trajectories, and these predictions lead to better subsequent motion plans in critical scenarios.

Paul Leonard Wolff, Hugo Buurmeijer, Luis Pabon et al. · eth-zurich, mit

Continuum robots exhibit high-dimensional, nonlinear dynamics which are often coupled with their actuation mechanism. Spectral submanifold (SSM) reduction has emerged as a leading method for reducing high-dimensional nonlinear dynamical systems to low-dimensional invariant manifolds. Our proposed control-augmented SSMs (caSSMs) extend this methodology by explicitly incorporating control inputs into the state representation, enabling these models to capture nonlinear state-input couplings. Training these models relies solely on controlled decay trajectories of the actuator-augmented state, thereby removing the additional actuation-calibration step commonly needed by prior SSM-for-control methods. We learn a compact caSSM model for a tendon-driven trunk robot, enabling real-time control and reducing open-loop prediction error by 40% compared to existing methods. In closed-loop experiments with model predictive control (MPC), caSSM reduces tracking error by 52%, demonstrating improved performance against Koopman and SSM based MPC and practical deployability on hardware continuum robots.

Jiageng Mao, Junjie Ye, Yuxi Qian et al.

Human-level driving is an ultimate goal of autonomous driving. Conventional approaches formulate autonomous driving as a perception-prediction-planning framework, yet their systems do not capitalize on the inherent reasoning ability and experiential knowledge of humans. In this paper, we propose a fundamental paradigm shift from current pipelines, exploiting Large Language Models (LLMs) as a cognitive agent to integrate human-like intelligence into autonomous driving systems. Our approach, termed Agent-Driver, transforms the traditional autonomous driving pipeline by introducing a versatile tool library accessible via function calls, a cognitive memory of common sense and experiential knowledge for decision-making, and a reasoning engine capable of chain-of-thought reasoning, task planning, motion planning, and self-reflection. Powered by LLMs, our Agent-Driver is endowed with intuitive common sense and robust reasoning capabilities, thus enabling a more nuanced, human-like approach to autonomous driving. We evaluate our approach on the large-scale nuScenes benchmark, and extensive experiments substantiate that our Agent-Driver significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art driving methods by a large margin. Our approach also demonstrates superior interpretability and few-shot learning ability to these methods.

Tarun Gupta, Peter Karkus, Tong Che et al.

Effectively exploring the environment is a key challenge in reinforcement learning (RL). We address this challenge by defining a novel intrinsic reward based on a foundation model, such as contrastive language image pretraining (CLIP), which can encode a wealth of domain-independent semantic visual-language knowledge about the world. Specifically, our intrinsic reward is defined based on pre-trained CLIP embeddings without any fine-tuning or learning on the target RL task. We demonstrate that CLIP-based intrinsic rewards can drive exploration towards semantically meaningful states and outperform state-of-the-art methods in challenging sparse-reward procedurally-generated environments.

Ruixiang Zhang, Tong Che, Boris Ivanovic et al.

Humans are remarkably good at understanding and reasoning about complex visual scenes. The capability to decompose low-level observations into discrete objects allows us to build a grounded abstract representation and identify the compositional structure of the world. Accordingly, it is a crucial step for machine learning models to be capable of inferring objects and their properties from visual scenes without explicit supervision. However, existing works on object-centric representation learning either rely on tailor-made neural network modules or strong probabilistic assumptions in the underlying generative and inference processes. In this work, we present \ours, a conceptually simple and general approach to learning object-centric representations through an energy-based model. By forming a permutation-invariant energy function using vanilla attention blocks readily available in Transformers, we can infer object-centric latent variables via gradient-based MCMC methods where permutation equivariance is automatically guaranteed. We show that \ours can be easily integrated into existing architectures and can effectively extract high-quality object-centric representations, leading to better segmentation accuracy and competitive downstream task performance. Further, empirical evaluations show that \ours's learned representations are robust against distribution shift. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of \ours in systematic compositional generalization, by re-composing learned energy functions for novel scene generation and manipulation.

Songlin Wei, Hongyi Jing, Boqian Li et al.

We introduce $Ψ_0$ (Psi-Zero), an open foundation model to address challenging humanoid loco-manipulation tasks. While existing approaches often attempt to address this fundamental problem by co-training on large and diverse human and humanoid data, we argue that this strategy is suboptimal due to the fundamental kinematic and motion disparities between humans and humanoid robots. Therefore, data efficiency and model performance remain unsatisfactory despite the considerable data volume. To address this challenge, \ours\;decouples the learning process to maximize the utility of heterogeneous data sources. Specifically, we propose a staged training paradigm with different learning objectives: First, we autoregressively pre-train a VLM backbone on large-scale egocentric human videos to acquire generalizable visual-action representations. Then, we post-train a flow-based action expert on high-quality humanoid robot data to learn precise robot joint control. Our research further identifies a critical yet often overlooked data recipe: in contrast to approaches that scale with noisy Internet clips or heterogeneous cross-embodiment robot datasets, we demonstrate that pre-training on high-quality egocentric human manipulation data followed by post-training on domain-specific real-world humanoid trajectories yields superior performance. Extensive real-world experiments demonstrate that \ours\ achieves the best performance using only about 800 hours of human video data and 30 hours of real-world robot data, outperforming baselines pre-trained on more than 10$\times$ as much data by over 40\% in overall success rate across multiple tasks. We will open-source the entire ecosystem to the community, including a data processing and training pipeline, a humanoid foundation model, and a real-time action inference engine.

Ran Tian, Boyi Li, Xinshuo Weng et al.

The autonomous driving industry is increasingly adopting end-to-end learning from sensory inputs to minimize human biases in system design. Traditional end-to-end driving models, however, suffer from long-tail events due to rare or unseen inputs within their training distributions. To address this, we propose TOKEN, a novel Multi-Modal Large Language Model (MM-LLM) that tokenizes the world into object-level knowledge, enabling better utilization of LLM's reasoning capabilities to enhance autonomous vehicle planning in long-tail scenarios. TOKEN effectively alleviates data scarcity and inefficient tokenization by leveraging a traditional end-to-end driving model to produce condensed and semantically enriched representations of the scene, which are optimized for LLM planning compatibility through deliberate representation and reasoning alignment training stages. Our results demonstrate that TOKEN excels in grounding, reasoning, and planning capabilities, outperforming existing frameworks with a 27% reduction in trajectory L2 error and a 39% decrease in collision rates in long-tail scenarios. Additionally, our work highlights the importance of representation alignment and structured reasoning in sparking the common-sense reasoning capabilities of MM-LLMs for effective planning.

Sushant Veer, Apoorva Sharma, Marco Pavone

Trajectory prediction modules are key enablers for safe and efficient planning of autonomous vehicles (AVs), particularly in highly interactive traffic scenarios. Recently, learning-based trajectory predictors have experienced considerable success in providing state-of-the-art performance due to their ability to learn multimodal behaviors of other agents from data. In this paper, we present an algorithm called multi-predictor fusion (MPF) that augments the performance of learning-based predictors by imbuing them with motion planners that are tasked with satisfying logic-based rules. MPF probabilistically combines learning- and rule-based predictors by mixing trajectories from both standalone predictors in accordance with a belief distribution that reflects the online performance of each predictor. In our results, we show that MPF outperforms the two standalone predictors on various metrics and delivers the most consistent performance.

Rohan Sinha, James Harrison, Spencer M. Richards et al.

We propose a learning-based robust predictive control algorithm that compensates for significant uncertainty in the dynamics for a class of discrete-time systems that are nominally linear with an additive nonlinear component. Such systems commonly model the nonlinear effects of an unknown environment on a nominal system. We optimize over a class of nonlinear feedback policies inspired by certainty equivalent "estimate-and-cancel" control laws pioneered in classical adaptive control to achieve significant performance improvements in the presence of uncertainties of large magnitude, a setting in which existing learning-based predictive control algorithms often struggle to guarantee safety. In contrast to previous work in robust adaptive MPC, our approach allows us to take advantage of structure (i.e., the numerical predictions) in the a priori unknown dynamics learned online through function approximation. Our approach also extends typical nonlinear adaptive control methods to systems with state and input constraints even when we cannot directly cancel the additive uncertain function from the dynamics. We apply contemporary statistical estimation techniques to certify the system's safety through persistent constraint satisfaction with high probability. Moreover, we propose using Bayesian meta-learning algorithms that learn calibrated model priors to help satisfy the assumptions of the control design in challenging settings. Finally, we show in simulation that our method can accommodate more significant unknown dynamics terms than existing methods and that the use of Bayesian meta-learning allows us to adapt to the test environments more rapidly.