Gautam Jajoo

Gautam Jajoo, Pranjal A Chitale, Saksham Agarwal · microsoft-research

Recent advancements in financial problem-solving have leveraged LLMs and agent-based systems, with a primary focus on trading and financial modeling. However, credit assessment remains an underexplored challenge, traditionally dependent on rule-based methods and statistical models. In this paper, we introduce MASCA, an LLM-driven multi-agent system designed to enhance credit evaluation by mirroring real-world decision-making processes. The framework employs a layered architecture where specialized LLM-based agents collaboratively tackle sub-tasks. Additionally, we integrate contrastive learning for risk and reward assessment to optimize decision-making. We further present a signaling game theory perspective on hierarchical multi-agent systems, offering theoretical insights into their structure and interactions. Our paper also includes a detailed bias analysis in credit assessment, addressing fairness concerns. Experimental results demonstrate that MASCA outperforms baseline approaches, highlighting the effectiveness of hierarchical LLM-based multi-agent systems in financial applications, particularly in credit scoring.

Atharva Pandey, Abhilash Neog, Gautam Jajoo

Time-series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have recently emerged as a universal paradigm for learning across diverse temporal domains. However, despite their empirical success, the internal mechanisms by which these models represent fundamental time-series concepts remain poorly understood. In this work, we undertake a systematic investigation of concept interpretability in TSFMs. Specifically, we examine: (i) which layers encode which concepts, (ii) whether concept parameters are linearly recoverable, (iii) how representations evolve in terms of concept disentanglement and abstraction across model depth, and (iv) how models process compositions of concepts. We systematically probe these questions using layer-wise analyses, linear recoverability tests, and representation similarity measures, providing a structured account of TSFM semantics. The resulting insights show that early layers mainly capture local, time-domain patterns (e.g., AR(1), level shifts, trends), while deeper layers encode dispersion and change-time signals, with spectral and warping factors remaining the hardest to recover linearly. In compositional settings, however, probe performance degrades, revealing interference between concepts. This highlights that while atomic concepts are reliably localized, composition remains a challenge, underscoring a key limitation in current TSFMs' ability to represent interacting temporal phenomena.

Ashutosh Srivastava, Lokesh Nagalapatti, Gautam Jajoo et al.

Recent claims of strong performance by Large Language Models (LLMs) on causal discovery are undermined by a key flaw: many evaluations rely on benchmarks likely included in pretraining corpora. Thus, apparent success suggests that LLM-only methods, which ignore observational data, outperform classical statistical approaches. We challenge this narrative by asking: Do LLMs truly reason about causal structure, and how can we measure it without memorization concerns? Can they be trusted for real-world scientific discovery? We argue that realizing LLMs' potential for causal analysis requires two shifts: (P.1) developing robust evaluation protocols based on recent scientific studies to guard against dataset leakage, and (P.2) designing hybrid methods that combine LLM-derived knowledge with data-driven statistics. To address P.1, we encourage evaluating discovery methods on novel, real-world scientific studies. We outline a practical recipe for extracting causal graphs from recent publications released after an LLM's training cutoff, ensuring relevance and preventing memorization while capturing both established and novel relations. Compared to benchmarks like BNLearn, where LLMs achieve near-perfect accuracy, they perform far worse on our curated graphs, underscoring the need for statistical grounding. Supporting P.2, we show that using LLM predictions as priors for the classical PC algorithm significantly improves accuracy over both LLM-only and purely statistical methods. We call on the community to adopt science-grounded, leakage-resistant benchmarks and invest in hybrid causal discovery methods suited to real-world inquiry.

Gurusha Juneja, Gautam Jajoo, Nagarajan Natarajan et al.

Given a task in the form of a basic description and its training examples, prompt optimization is the problem of synthesizing the given information into a text prompt for a large language model. Humans solve this problem by also considering the different facets that define a task (e.g., counter-examples, explanations, analogies) and including them in the prompt. However, it is unclear whether existing algorithmic approaches, based on iteratively editing a given prompt or automatically selecting a few in-context examples, can cover the multiple facets required to solve a complex task. In this work, we view prompt optimization as that of learning multiple facets of a task from a set of training examples. We exploit structure in the prompt optimization problem and break down a prompt into loosely coupled semantic sections. The proposed algorithm, UniPrompt, (1) clusters the input space and uses clustered batches so that each batch likely corresponds to a different facet of the task, and (2) utilizes a feedback mechanism to propose adding, editing or deleting a section, which in turn is aggregated over a batch to capture generalizable facets. Empirical evaluation on multiple datasets and a real-world task shows that prompts generated using \shortname{} obtain higher accuracy than human-tuned prompts and those from state-of-the-art methods. In particular, our algorithm can generate long, complex prompts that existing methods are unable to generate. Code for UniPrompt is available at https://aka.ms/uniprompt.