Xueyu Zhu

Giulia Bertaglia, Chuan Lu, Lorenzo Pareschi et al.

When investigating epidemic dynamics through differential models, the parameters needed to understand the phenomenon and to simulate forecast scenarios require a delicate calibration phase, often made even more challenging by the scarcity and uncertainty of the observed data reported by official sources. In this context, Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs), by embedding the knowledge of the differential model that governs the physical phenomenon in the learning process, can effectively address the inverse and forward problem of data-driven learning and solving the corresponding epidemic problem. In many circumstances, however, the spatial propagation of an infectious disease is characterized by movements of individuals at different scales governed by multiscale PDEs. This reflects the heterogeneity of a region or territory in relation to the dynamics within cities and in neighboring zones. In presence of multiple scales, a direct application of PINNs generally leads to poor results due to the multiscale nature of the differential model in the loss function of the neural network. To allow the neural network to operate uniformly with respect to the small scales, it is desirable that the neural network satisfies an Asymptotic-Preservation (AP) property in the learning process. To this end, we consider a new class of AP Neural Networks (APNNs) for multiscale hyperbolic transport models of epidemic spread that, thanks to an appropriate AP formulation of the loss function, is capable to work uniformly at the different scales of the system. A series of numerical tests for different epidemic scenarios confirms the validity of the proposed approach, highlighting the importance of the AP property in the neural network when dealing with multiscale problems especially in presence of sparse and partially observed systems.

Andrew Pensoneault, Xiu Yang, Xueyu Zhu

Gaussian Process (GP) regression is a flexible non-parametric approach to approximate complex models. In many cases, these models correspond to processes with bounded physical properties. Standard GP regression typically results in a proxy model which is unbounded for all temporal or spacial points, and thus leaves the possibility of taking on infeasible values. We propose an approach to enforce the physical constraints in a probabilistic way under the GP regression framework. In addition, this new approach reduces the variance in the resulting GP model.

Chuan Lu, Xueyu Zhu

In this paper, we present a new nonintrusive reduced basis method when a cheap low-fidelity model and expensive high-fidelity model are available. The method relies on proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) to generate the high-fidelity reduced basis and a shallow multilayer perceptron to learn the high-fidelity reduced coefficients. In contrast to other methods, one distinct feature of the proposed method is to incorporate the features extracted from the low-fidelity data as the input feature, this approach not only improves the predictive capability of the neural network but also enables the decoupling the high-fidelity simulation from the online stage. Due to its nonintrusive nature, it is applicable to general parameterized problems. We also provide several numerical examples to illustrate the effectiveness and performance of the proposed method.

Xiu Yang, Xueyu Zhu, Jing Li

In this work, we propose a framework that combines the approximation-theory-based multifidelity method and Gaussian-process-regression-based multifidelity method to achieve data-model convergence when stochastic simulation models and sparse accurate observation data are available. Specifically, the two types of multifidelity methods we use are the bifidelity and CoKriging methods. The new approach uses the bifidelity method to efficiently estimate the empirical mean and covariance of the stochastic simulation outputs, then it uses these statistics to construct a Gaussian process (GP) representing low-fidelity in CoKriging. We also combine the bifidelity method with Kriging, where the approximated empirical statistics are used to construct the GP as well. We prove that the resulting posterior mean by the new physics-informed approach preserves linear physical constraints up to an error bound. By using this method, we can obtain an accurate construction of a state of interest based on a partially correct physical model and a few accurate observations. We present numerical examples to demonstrate performance of the method.