Mahmoud Mahfouz

Maarten P. Scholl, Mahmoud Mahfouz, Anisoara Calinescu et al.

While investment funds publicly disclose their objectives in broad terms, their managers optimize for complex combinations of competing goals that go beyond simple risk-return trade-offs. Traditional approaches attempt to model this through multi-objective utility functions, but face fundamental challenges in specification and parameterization. We propose a generative framework that learns latent representations of fund manager strategies without requiring explicit utility specification. Our approach directly models the conditional probability of a fund's portfolio weights, given stock characteristics, historical returns, previous weights, and a latent variable representing the fund's strategy. Unlike methods based on reinforcement learning or imitation learning, which require specified rewards or labeled expert objectives, our GAN-based architecture learns directly from the joint distribution of observed holdings and market data. We validate our framework on a dataset of 1436 U.S. equity mutual funds. The learned representations successfully capture known investment styles, such as "growth" and "value," while also revealing implicit manager objectives. For instance, we find that while many funds exhibit characteristics of Markowitz-like optimization, they do so with heterogeneous realizations for turnover, concentration, and latent factors. To analyze and interpret the end-to-end model, we develop a series of tests that explain the model, and we show that the benchmark's expert labeling are contained in our model's encoding in a linear interpretable way. Our framework provides a data-driven approach for characterizing investment strategies for applications in market simulation, strategy attribution, and regulatory oversight.

Sunandita Patra, Mehtab Pathan, Mahmoud Mahfouz et al.

Organizations around the world schedule jobs (programs) regularly to perform various tasks dictated by their end users. With the major movement towards using a cloud computing infrastructure, our organization follows a hybrid approach with both cloud and on-prem servers. The objective of this work is to perform capacity planning, i.e., estimate resource requirements, and job scheduling for on-prem grid computing environments. A key contribution of our approach is handling uncertainty in both resource usage and duration of the jobs, a critical aspect in the finance industry where stochastic market conditions significantly influence job characteristics. For capacity planning and scheduling, we simultaneously balance two conflicting objectives: (a) minimize resource usage, and (b) provide high quality-of-service to the end users by completing jobs by their requested deadlines. We propose approximate approaches using deterministic estimators and pair sampling-based constraint programming. Our best approach (pair sampling-based) achieves much lower peak resource usage compared to manual scheduling without compromising on the quality-of-service.

Yufei Wu, Mahmoud Mahfouz, Daniele Magazzeni et al.

The success of machine learning models in the financial domain is highly reliant on the quality of the data representation. In this paper, we focus on the representation of limit order book data and discuss the opportunities and challenges for learning representations of such data. We also experimentally analyse the issues associated with existing representations and present a guideline for future research in this area.

Mahmoud Mahfouz, Armineh Nourbakhsh, Sameena Shah

Organizations around the world face an array of risks impacting their operations globally. It is imperative to have a robust risk identification process to detect and evaluate the impact of potential risks before they materialize. Given the nature of the task and the current requirements of deep subject matter expertise, most organizations utilize a heavily manual process. In our work, we develop an automated system that (a) continuously monitors global news, (b) is able to autonomously identify and characterize risks, (c) is able to determine the proximity of reaching triggers to determine the distance from the manifestation of the risk impact and (d) identifies organization's operational areas that may be most impacted by the risk. Other contributions also include: (a) a knowledge graph representation of risks and (b) relevant news matching to risks identified by the organization utilizing a neural embedding model to match the textual description of a given risk with multi-lingual news.

Giuseppe G. Calvi, Ahmad Moniri, Mahmoud Mahfouz et al.

This work aims to help resolve the two main stumbling blocks in the application of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), that is, the exceedingly large number of trainable parameters and their physical interpretability. This is achieved through a tensor valued approach, based on the proposed Tucker Tensor Layer (TTL), as an alternative to the dense weight-matrices of DNNs. This allows us to treat the weight-matrices of general DNNs as a matrix unfolding of a higher order weight-tensor. By virtue of the compression properties of tensor decompositions, this enables us to introduce a novel and efficient framework for exploiting the multi-way nature of the weight-tensor in order to dramatically reduce the number of DNN parameters. We also derive the tensor valued back-propagation algorithm within the TTL framework, by extending the notion of matrix derivatives to tensors. In this way, the physical interpretability of the Tucker decomposition is exploited to gain physical insights into the NN training, through the process of computing gradients with respect to each factor matrix. The proposed framework is validated on both synthetic data, and the benchmark datasets MNIST, Fashion-MNIST, and CIFAR-10. Overall, through the ability to provide the relative importance of each data feature in training, the TTL back-propagation is shown to help mitigate the "black-box" nature inherent to NNs. Experiments also illustrate that the TTL achieves a 66.63-fold compression on MNIST and Fashion-MNIST, while, by simplifying the VGG-16 network, it achieves a 10\% speed up in training time, at a comparable performance.