Anisoara Calinescu

Arnau Quera-Bofarull, Joel Dyer, Anisoara Calinescu et al.

Agent-based models (ABMs) are a promising approach to modelling and reasoning about complex systems, yet their application in practice is impeded by their complexity, discrete nature, and the difficulty of performing parameter inference and optimisation tasks. This in turn has sparked interest in the construction of differentiable ABMs as a strategy for combatting these difficulties, yet a number of challenges remain. In this paper, we discuss and present experiments that highlight some of these challenges, along with potential solutions.

Sascha Frey, Kang Li, Peer Nagy et al.

Financial exchanges across the world use limit order books (LOBs) to process orders and match trades. For research purposes it is important to have large scale efficient simulators of LOB dynamics. LOB simulators have previously been implemented in the context of agent-based models (ABMs), reinforcement learning (RL) environments, and generative models, processing order flows from historical data sets and hand-crafted agents alike. For many applications, there is a requirement for processing multiple books, either for the calibration of ABMs or for the training of RL agents. We showcase the first GPU-enabled LOB simulator designed to process thousands of books in parallel, with a notably reduced per-message processing time. The implementation of our simulator - JAX-LOB - is based on design choices that aim to best exploit the powers of JAX without compromising on the realism of LOB-related mechanisms. We integrate JAX-LOB with other JAX packages, to provide an example of how one may address an optimal execution problem with reinforcement learning, and to share some preliminary results from end-to-end RL training on GPUs.

Peer Nagy, Sascha Frey, Silvia Sapora et al.

Developing a generative model of realistic order flow in financial markets is a challenging open problem, with numerous applications for market participants. Addressing this, we propose the first end-to-end autoregressive generative model that generates tokenized limit order book (LOB) messages. These messages are interpreted by a Jax-LOB simulator, which updates the LOB state. To handle long sequences efficiently, the model employs simplified structured state-space layers to process sequences of order book states and tokenized messages. Using LOBSTER data of NASDAQ equity LOBs, we develop a custom tokenizer for message data, converting groups of successive digits to tokens, similar to tokenization in large language models. Out-of-sample results show promising performance in approximating the data distribution, as evidenced by low model perplexity. Furthermore, the mid-price returns calculated from the generated order flow exhibit a significant correlation with the data, indicating impressive conditional forecast performance. Due to the granularity of generated data, and the accuracy of the model, it offers new application areas for future work beyond forecasting, e.g. acting as a world model in high-frequency financial reinforcement learning applications. Overall, our results invite the use and extension of the model in the direction of autoregressive large financial models for the generation of high-frequency financial data and we commit to open-sourcing our code to facilitate future research.

Imran Mahmood, Nicholas Bishop, Anisoara Calinescu et al.

In agent-based simulations, synthetic populations of agents are commonly used to represent the structure, behaviour, and interactions of individuals. However, generating a synthetic population that accurately reflects real population statistics is a challenging task, particularly when performed at scale. In this paper, we propose a multi objective combinatorial optimisation technique for large scale population synthesis. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach by generating a synthetic population for selected regions and validating it on contingency tables from real population data. Our approach supports complex hierarchical structures between individuals and households, is scalable to large populations and achieves minimal contigency table reconstruction error. Hence, it provides a useful tool for policymakers and researchers for simulating the dynamics of complex populations.

M Lopes Alves, Joel Dyer, Doyne Farmer et al.

Agent-based modelling (ABM) is a widespread approach to simulate complex systems. Advancements in computational processing and storage have facilitated the adoption of ABMs across many fields; however, ABMs face challenges that limit their use as decision-support tools. A significant issue is parameter estimation in large-scale ABMs, particularly due to computational constraints on exploring the parameter space. This study evaluates a state-of-the-art simulation-based inference (SBI) framework that uses neural networks (NN) for parameter estimation. This framework is applied to an established labour market ABM based on job transition networks. The ABM is initiated with synthetic datasets and the real U.S. labour market. Next, we compare the effectiveness of summary statistics derived from a list of statistical measures with that learned by an embedded NN. The results demonstrate that the NN-based approach recovers the original parameters when evaluating posterior distributions across various dataset scales and improves efficiency compared to traditional Bayesian methods.

Maarten P. Scholl, Mahmoud Mahfouz, Anisoara Calinescu et al.

While investment funds publicly disclose their objectives in broad terms, their managers optimize for complex combinations of competing goals that go beyond simple risk-return trade-offs. Traditional approaches attempt to model this through multi-objective utility functions, but face fundamental challenges in specification and parameterization. We propose a generative framework that learns latent representations of fund manager strategies without requiring explicit utility specification. Our approach directly models the conditional probability of a fund's portfolio weights, given stock characteristics, historical returns, previous weights, and a latent variable representing the fund's strategy. Unlike methods based on reinforcement learning or imitation learning, which require specified rewards or labeled expert objectives, our GAN-based architecture learns directly from the joint distribution of observed holdings and market data. We validate our framework on a dataset of 1436 U.S. equity mutual funds. The learned representations successfully capture known investment styles, such as "growth" and "value," while also revealing implicit manager objectives. For instance, we find that while many funds exhibit characteristics of Markowitz-like optimization, they do so with heterogeneous realizations for turnover, concentration, and latent factors. To analyze and interpret the end-to-end model, we develop a series of tests that explain the model, and we show that the benchmark's expert labeling are contained in our model's encoding in a linear interpretable way. Our framework provides a data-driven approach for characterizing investment strategies for applications in market simulation, strategy attribution, and regulatory oversight.

Tin Dizdarević, Ravi Hammond, Tobias Gessler et al. · meta-ai, oxford

Achieving seamless coordination between AI agents and humans is crucial for real-world applications, yet it remains a significant open challenge. Hanabi is a cooperative card game featuring imperfect information, constrained communication, theory of mind requirements, and coordinated action -- making it an ideal testbed for human-AI coordination. However, its use for human-AI interaction has been limited by the challenges of human evaluation. In this work, we introduce the Ad-Hoc Human-AI Coordination Challenge (AH2AC2) to overcome the constraints of costly and difficult-to-reproduce human evaluations. We develop \textit{human proxy agents} on a large-scale human dataset that serve as robust, cheap, and reproducible human-like evaluation partners in AH2AC2. To encourage the development of data-efficient methods, we open-source a dataset of 3,079 games, deliberately limiting the amount of available human gameplay data. We present baseline results for both two- and three- player Hanabi scenarios. To ensure fair evaluation, we host the proxy agents through a controlled evaluation system rather than releasing them publicly. The code is available at \href{https://github.com/FLAIROx/ah2ac2}{https://github.com/FLAIROx/ah2ac2}.

Joel Dyer, Nicholas Bishop, Yorgos Felekis et al.

Agent-based simulators provide granular representations of complex intelligent systems by directly modelling the interactions of the system's constituent agents. Their high-fidelity nature enables hyper-local policy evaluation and testing of what-if scenarios, but is associated with large computational costs that inhibits their widespread use. Surrogate models can address these computational limitations, but they must behave consistently with the agent-based model under policy interventions of interest. In this paper, we capitalise on recent developments on causal abstractions to develop a framework for learning interventionally consistent surrogate models for agent-based simulators. Our proposed approach facilitates rapid experimentation with policy interventions in complex systems, while inducing surrogates to behave consistently with high probability with respect to the agent-based simulator across interventions of interest. We demonstrate with empirical studies that observationally trained surrogates can misjudge the effect of interventions and misguide policymakers towards suboptimal policies, while surrogates trained for interventional consistency with our proposed method closely mimic the behaviour of an agent-based model under interventions of interest.

Fabio Massimo Zennaro, Nicholas Bishop, Joel Dyer et al.

Multi-armed bandits (MAB) and causal MABs (CMAB) are established frameworks for decision-making problems. The majority of prior work typically studies and solves individual MAB and CMAB in isolation for a given problem and associated data. However, decision-makers are often faced with multiple related problems and multi-scale observations where joint formulations are needed in order to efficiently exploit the problem structures and data dependencies. Transfer learning for CMABs addresses the situation where models are defined on identical variables, although causal connections may differ. In this work, we extend transfer learning to setups involving CMABs defined on potentially different variables, with varying degrees of granularity, and related via an abstraction map. Formally, we introduce the problem of causally abstracted MABs (CAMABs) by relying on the theory of causal abstraction in order to express a rigorous abstraction map. We propose algorithms to learn in a CAMAB, and study their regret. We illustrate the limitations and the strengths of our algorithms on a real-world scenario related to online advertising.

Arnau Quera-Bofarull, Nicholas Bishop, Joel Dyer et al.

Agent-based models (ABMs) simulate complex systems by capturing the bottom-up interactions of individual agents comprising the system. Many complex systems of interest, such as epidemics or financial markets, involve thousands or even millions of agents. Consequently, ABMs often become computationally demanding and rely on the calibration of numerous free parameters, which has significantly hindered their widespread adoption. In this paper, we demonstrate that automatic differentiation (AD) techniques can effectively alleviate these computational burdens. By applying AD to ABMs, the gradients of the simulator become readily available, greatly facilitating essential tasks such as calibration and sensitivity analysis. Specifically, we show how AD enables variational inference (VI) techniques for efficient parameter calibration. Our experiments demonstrate substantial performance improvements and computational savings using VI on three prominent ABMs: Axtell's model of firms; Sugarscape; and the SIR epidemiological model. Our approach thus significantly enhances the practicality and scalability of ABMs for studying complex systems.

Daniel Jarne Ornia, Joel Dyer, Nicholas Bishop et al.

Complex learning agents are increasingly deployed alongside existing experts, such as human operators or previously trained agents. However, it remains unclear how should learners optimally incorporate certain forms of expert data, which may differ in structure from the learner's own action-outcome experiences. We study this problem in the context of Bayesian multi-armed bandits, considering: (i) offline settings, where the learner receives a dataset of outcomes from the expert's optimal policy before interaction, and (ii) simultaneous settings, where the learner must choose at each step whether to update its beliefs based on its own experience, or based on the outcome simultaneously achieved by an expert. We formalize how expert data influences the learner's posterior, and prove that pretraining on expert outcomes tightens information-theoretic regret bounds by the mutual information between the expert data and the optimal action. For the simultaneous setting, we propose an information-directed rule where the learner processes the data source that maximizes their one-step information gain about the optimal action. Finally, we propose strategies for how the learner can infer when to trust the expert and when not to, safeguarding the learner for the cases where the expert is ineffective or compromised. By quantifying the value of expert data, our framework provides practical, information-theoretic algorithms for agents to intelligently decide when to learn from others.

Joel Dyer, Daniel Jarne Ornia, Nicholas Bishop et al.

Evaluating the safety of frontier AI systems is an increasingly important concern, helping to measure the capabilities of such models and identify risks before deployment. However, it has been recognised that if AI agents are aware that they are being evaluated, such agents may deliberately hide dangerous capabilities or intentionally demonstrate suboptimal performance in safety-related tasks in order to be released and to avoid being deactivated or retrained. Such strategic deception - often known as "sandbagging" - threatens to undermine the integrity of safety evaluations. For this reason, it is of value to identify methods that enable us to distinguish behavioural patterns that demonstrate a true lack of capability from behavioural patterns that are consistent with sandbagging. In this paper, we develop a simple model of strategic deception in sequential decision-making tasks, inspired by the recently developed survival bandit framework. We demonstrate theoretically that this problem induces sandbagging behaviour in optimal rational agents, and construct a statistical test to distinguish between sandbagging and incompetence from sequences of test scores. In simulation experiments, we investigate the reliability of this test in allowing us to distinguish between such behaviours in bandit models. This work aims to establish a potential avenue for developing robust statistical procedures for use in the science of frontier model evaluations.

Joel Dyer, Nicholas Bishop, Anisoara Calinescu et al.

Although real-world decision-making problems can often be encoded as causal multi-armed bandits (CMABs) at different levels of abstraction, a general methodology exploiting the information and computational advantages of each abstraction level is missing. In this paper, we propose AT-UCB, an algorithm which efficiently exploits shared information between CMAB problem instances defined at different levels of abstraction. More specifically, AT-UCB leverages causal abstraction (CA) theory to explore within a cheap-to-simulate and coarse-grained CMAB instance, before employing the traditional upper confidence bound (UCB) algorithm on a restricted set of potentially optimal actions in the CMAB of interest, leading to significant reductions in cumulative regret when compared to the classical UCB algorithm. We illustrate the advantages of AT-UCB theoretically, through a novel upper bound on the cumulative regret, and empirically, by applying AT-UCB to epidemiological simulators with varying resolution and computational cost.

Siyi Sun, David Antony Selby, Yunchuan Huang et al.

Missing data imputation in tabular datasets remains a pivotal challenge in data science and machine learning, particularly within socioeconomic research. However, real-world socioeconomic datasets are typically subject to strict data protection protocols, which often prohibit public sharing, even for synthetic derivatives. This severely limits the reproducibility and accessibility of benchmark studies in such settings. Further, there are very few publicly available synthetic datasets. Thus, there is limited availability of benchmarks for systematic evaluation of imputation methods on socioeconomic datasets, whether real or synthetic. In this study, we utilize the World Bank's publicly available synthetic dataset, Synthetic Data for an Imaginary Country, which closely mimics a real World Bank household survey while being fully public, enabling broad access for methodological research. With this as a starting point, we derived the IMAGIC-500 dataset: we select a subset of 500k individuals across approximately 100k households with 19 socioeconomic features, designed to reflect the hierarchical structure of real-world household surveys. This paper introduces a comprehensive missing data imputation benchmark on IMAGIC-500 under various missing mechanisms (MCAR, MAR, MNAR) and missingness ratios (10\%, 20\%, 30\%, 40\%, 50\%). Our evaluation considers the imputation accuracy for continuous and categorical variables, computational efficiency, and impact on downstream predictive tasks, such as estimating educational attainment at the individual level. The results highlight the strengths and weaknesses of statistical, traditional machine learning, and deep learning imputation techniques, including recent diffusion-based methods. The IMAGIC-500 dataset and benchmark aim to facilitate the development of robust imputation algorithms and foster reproducible social science research.

Arnau Quera-Bofarull, Ayush Chopra, Anisoara Calinescu et al.

Agent-based modelling (ABMing) is a powerful and intuitive approach to modelling complex systems; however, the intractability of ABMs' likelihood functions and the non-differentiability of the mathematical operations comprising these models present a challenge to their use in the real world. These difficulties have in turn generated research on approximate Bayesian inference methods for ABMs and on constructing differentiable approximations to arbitrary ABMs, but little work has been directed towards designing approximate Bayesian inference techniques for the specific case of differentiable ABMs. In this work, we aim to address this gap and discuss how generalised variational inference procedures may be employed to provide misspecification-robust Bayesian parameter inferences for differentiable ABMs. We demonstrate with experiments on a differentiable ABM of the COVID-19 pandemic that our approach can result in accurate inferences, and discuss avenues for future work.

Angira Sharma, Edward Kosasih, Jie Zhang et al.

Digital Twin was introduced over a decade ago, as an innovative all-encompassing tool, with perceived benefits including real-time monitoring, simulation and forecasting. However, the theoretical framework and practical implementations of digital twins (DT) are still far from this vision. Although successful implementations exist, sufficient implementation details are not publicly available, therefore it is difficult to assess their effectiveness, draw comparisons and jointly advance the DT methodology. This work explores the various DT features and current approaches, the shortcomings and reasons behind the delay in the implementation and adoption of digital twin. Advancements in machine learning, internet of things and big data have contributed hugely to the improvements in DT with regards to its real-time monitoring and forecasting properties. Despite this progress and individual company-based efforts, certain research gaps exist in the field, which have caused delay in the widespread adoption of this concept. We reviewed relevant works and identified that the major reasons for this delay are the lack of a universal reference framework, domain dependence, security concerns of shared data, reliance of digital twin on other technologies, and lack of quantitative metrics. We define the necessary components of a digital twin required for a universal reference framework, which also validate its uniqueness as a concept compared to similar concepts like simulation, autonomous systems, etc. This work further assesses the digital twin applications in different domains and the current state of machine learning and big data in it. It thus answers and identifies novel research questions, both of which will help to better understand and advance the theory and practice of digital twins.