William R. Orchard

Michaela Hardt, William R. Orchard, Patrick Blöbaum et al.

Identifying root causes for unexpected or undesirable behavior in complex systems is a prevalent challenge. This issue becomes especially crucial in modern cloud applications that employ numerous microservices. Although the machine learning and systems research communities have proposed various techniques to tackle this problem, there is currently a lack of standardized datasets for quantitative benchmarking. Consequently, research groups are compelled to create their own datasets for experimentation. This paper introduces a dataset specifically designed for evaluating root cause analyses in microservice-based applications. The dataset encompasses latency, requests, and availability metrics emitted in 5-minute intervals from a distributed application. In addition to normal operation metrics, the dataset includes 68 injected performance issues, which increase latency and reduce availability throughout the system. We showcase how this dataset can be used to evaluate the accuracy of a variety of methods spanning different causal and non-causal characterisations of the root cause analysis problem. We hope the new dataset, available at https://github.com/amazon-science/petshop-root-cause-analysis/ enables further development of techniques in this important area.

William Roy Orchard, Nastaran Okati, Sergio Hernan Garrido Mejia et al.

The goal of Root Cause Analysis (RCA) is to explain why an anomaly occurred by identifying where the fault originated. Several recent works model the anomalous event as resulting from a change in the causal mechanism at the root cause, i.e., as a soft intervention. RCA is then the task of identifying which causal mechanism changed. In real-world applications, one often has either few or only a single sample from the post-intervention distribution: a severe limitation for most methods, which assume one knows or can estimate the distribution. However, even those that do not are statistically ill-posed due to the need to probe regression models in regions of low probability density. In this paper, we propose simple, efficient methods to overcome both difficulties in the case where there is a single root cause and the causal graph is a polytree. When one knows the causal graph, we give guarantees for a traversal algorithm that requires only marginal anomaly scores and does not depend on specifying an arbitrary anomaly score cut-off. When one does not know the causal graph, we show that the heuristic of identifying root causes as the variables with the highest marginal anomaly scores is causally justified. To this end, we prove that anomalies with small scores are unlikely to cause those with larger scores in polytrees and give upper bounds for the likelihood of causal pathways with non-monotonic anomaly scores.