César A. Hidalgo

Jingling Zhang, Jane Conway, César A. Hidalgo · harvard

People are known to judge artificial intelligence using a utilitarian moral philosophy and humans using a moral philosophy emphasizing perceived intentions. But why do people judge humans and machines differently? Psychology suggests that people may have different mind perception models of humans and machines, and thus, will treat human-like robots more similarly to the way they treat humans. Here we present a randomized experiment where we manipulated people's perception of machine agency (e.g., ability to plan, act) and experience (e.g., ability to feel) to explore whether people judge machines that are perceived to be more similar to humans along these two dimensions more similarly to the way they judge humans. We find that people's judgments of machines become more similar to that of humans when they perceive machines as having more agency but not more experience. Our findings indicate that people's use of different moral philosophies to judge humans and machines can be explained by a progression of mind perception models where the perception of agency plays a prominent role. These findings add to the body of evidence suggesting that people's judgment of machines becomes more similar to that of humans motivating further work on dimensions modulating people's judgment of human and machine actions.

Rachael Colley, Umberto Grandi, César Hidalgo et al.

In rank aggregation, members of a population rank issues to decide which are collectively preferred. We focus instead on identifying divisive issues that express disagreements among the preferences of individuals. We analyse the properties of our divisiveness measures and their relation to existing notions of polarisation. We also study their robustness under incomplete preferences and algorithms for control and manipulation of divisiveness. Our results advance our understanding of how to quantify disagreements in collective decision-making.

Lea Karbevska, César A. Hidalgo

Value chain data is crucial to navigate economic disruptions, such as those caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Yet, despite its importance, publicly available value chain datasets, such as the ``World Input-Output Database'', ``Inter-Country Input-Output Tables'', ``EXIOBASE'' or the ``EORA'', lack detailed information about products (e.g. Radio Receivers, Telephones, Electrical Capacitors, LCDs, etc.) and rely instead on more aggregate industrial sectors (e.g. Electrical Equipment, Telecommunications). Here, we introduce a method based on machine learning and trade theory to infer product-level value chain relationships from fine-grained international trade data. We apply our method to data summarizing the exports and imports of 300+ world regions (e.g. states in the U.S., prefectures in Japan, etc.) and 1200+ products to infer value chain information implicit in their trade patterns. Furthermore, we use proportional allocation to assign the trade flow between regions and countries. This work provides an approximate method to map value chain data at the product level with a relevant trade flow, that should be of interest to people working in logistics, trade, and sustainable development.

Juan Zambrano, Clément Contet, Jairo Gudiño et al.

Participatory Budgeting (PB) empowers citizens to propose and vote on public investment projects. Yet, despite its democratic potential, PB initiatives often suffer from low participation rates, limiting their visibility and perceived legitimacy. In this work, we aim to strengthen PB elections in two key ways: by supporting project proposers in crafting better proposals, and by helping PB organizers manage large volumes of submissions in a transparent manner. We propose a privacy-preserving approach to predict which PB proposals are likely to be funded, using only their textual descriptions and anonymous historical voting records -- without relying on voter demographics or personally identifiable information. We evaluate the performance of GPT 4 Turbo in forecasting proposal outcomes across varying contextual scenarios, observing that the LLM's prior knowledge needs to be complemented by past voting data to obtain predictions reflecting real-world PB voting behavior. Our findings highlight the potential of AI-driven tools to support PB processes by improving transparency, planning efficiency, and civic engagement.

Jairo Gudiño-Rosero, Umberto Grandi, César A. Hidalgo

We explore an augmented democracy system built on off-the-shelf LLMs fine-tuned to augment data on citizen's preferences elicited over policies extracted from the government programs of the two main candidates of Brazil's 2022 presidential election. We use a train-test cross-validation setup to estimate the accuracy with which the LLMs predict both: a subject's individual political choices and the aggregate preferences of the full sample of participants. At the individual level, we find that LLMs predict out of sample preferences more accurately than a "bundle rule", which would assume that citizens always vote for the proposals of the candidate aligned with their self-reported political orientation. At the population level, we show that a probabilistic sample augmented by an LLM provides a more accurate estimate of the aggregate preferences of a population than the non-augmented probabilistic sample alone. Together, these results indicates that policy preference data augmented using LLMs can capture nuances that transcend party lines and represents a promising avenue of research for data augmentation.

Madelon Hulsebos, Kevin Hu, Michiel Bakker et al.

Correctly detecting the semantic type of data columns is crucial for data science tasks such as automated data cleaning, schema matching, and data discovery. Existing data preparation and analysis systems rely on dictionary lookups and regular expression matching to detect semantic types. However, these matching-based approaches often are not robust to dirty data and only detect a limited number of types. We introduce Sherlock, a multi-input deep neural network for detecting semantic types. We train Sherlock on $686,765$ data columns retrieved from the VizNet corpus by matching $78$ semantic types from DBpedia to column headers. We characterize each matched column with $1,588$ features describing the statistical properties, character distributions, word embeddings, and paragraph vectors of column values. Sherlock achieves a support-weighted F$_1$ score of $0.89$, exceeding that of machine learning baselines, dictionary and regular expression benchmarks, and the consensus of crowdsourced annotations.

Kevin Hu, Neil Gaikwad, Michiel Bakker et al.

Researchers currently rely on ad hoc datasets to train automated visualization tools and evaluate the effectiveness of visualization designs. These exemplars often lack the characteristics of real-world datasets, and their one-off nature makes it difficult to compare different techniques. In this paper, we present VizNet: a large-scale corpus of over 31 million datasets compiled from open data repositories and online visualization galleries. On average, these datasets comprise 17 records over 3 dimensions and across the corpus, we find 51% of the dimensions record categorical data, 44% quantitative, and only 5% temporal. VizNet provides the necessary common baseline for comparing visualization design techniques, and developing benchmark models and algorithms for automating visual analysis. To demonstrate VizNet's utility as a platform for conducting online crowdsourced experiments at scale, we replicate a prior study assessing the influence of user task and data distribution on visual encoding effectiveness, and extend it by considering an additional task: outlier detection. To contend with running such studies at scale, we demonstrate how a metric of perceptual effectiveness can be learned from experimental results, and show its predictive power across test datasets.

Kevin Z. Hu, Michiel A. Bakker, Stephen Li et al.

Data visualization should be accessible for all analysts with data, not just the few with technical expertise. Visualization recommender systems aim to lower the barrier to exploring basic visualizations by automatically generating results for analysts to search and select, rather than manually specify. Here, we demonstrate a novel machine learning-based approach to visualization recommendation that learns visualization design choices from a large corpus of datasets and associated visualizations. First, we identify five key design choices made by analysts while creating visualizations, such as selecting a visualization type and choosing to encode a column along the X- or Y-axis. We train models to predict these design choices using one million dataset-visualization pairs collected from a popular online visualization platform. Neural networks predict these design choices with high accuracy compared to baseline models. We report and interpret feature importances from one of these baseline models. To evaluate the generalizability and uncertainty of our approach, we benchmark with a crowdsourced test set, and show that the performance of our model is comparable to human performance when predicting consensus visualization type, and exceeds that of other ML-based systems.

Abhimanyu Dubey, Nikhil Naik, Devi Parikh et al.

Computer vision methods that quantify the perception of urban environment are increasingly being used to study the relationship between a city's physical appearance and the behavior and health of its residents. Yet, the throughput of current methods is too limited to quantify the perception of cities across the world. To tackle this challenge, we introduce a new crowdsourced dataset containing 110,988 images from 56 cities, and 1,170,000 pairwise comparisons provided by 81,630 online volunteers along six perceptual attributes: safe, lively, boring, wealthy, depressing, and beautiful. Using this data, we train a Siamese-like convolutional neural architecture, which learns from a joint classification and ranking loss, to predict human judgments of pairwise image comparisons. Our results show that crowdsourcing combined with neural networks can produce urban perception data at the global scale.