Yuanzhuo Wang

Hexiang Tan, Wanli Yang, Junwei Zhang et al.

Reliable confidence is essential for trusting the outputs of LLMs, yet widely deployed post-trained LLMs (PoLLMs) typically compromise this trust with severe overconfidence. In contrast, we observe that their corresponding base LLMs often remain well-calibrated. This naturally motivates us to calibrate PoLLM confidence using the base LLM as a reference. This work proposes two ways to achieve this. A straightforward solution, BaseCal-ReEval, evaluates PoLLM's responses by feeding them into the base LLM to get average probabilities as confidence. While effective, this approach introduces additional inference overhead. To address this, we propose BaseCal-Proj, which trains a lightweight projection to map the final-layer hidden states of PoLLMs back to those of their base LLMs. These projected states are then processed by the base LLM's output layer to derive base-calibrated confidence for PoLLM's responses. Notably, BaseCal is an unsupervised, plug-and-play solution that operates without human labels or LLM modifications. Experiments across five datasets and three LLM families demonstrate the effectiveness of BaseCal, reducing Expected Calibration Error (ECE) by an average of 42.90\% compared to the best unsupervised baselines.

Hexiang Tan, Fei Sun, Sha Liu et al.

As large language models (LLMs) often generate plausible but incorrect content, error detection has become increasingly critical to ensure truthfulness. However, existing detection methods often overlook a critical problem we term as self-consistent error, where LLMs repeatedly generate the same incorrect response across multiple stochastic samples. This work formally defines self-consistent errors and evaluates mainstream detection methods on them. Our investigation reveals two key findings: (1) Unlike inconsistent errors, whose frequency diminishes significantly as the LLM scale increases, the frequency of self-consistent errors remains stable or even increases. (2) All four types of detection methods significantly struggle to detect self-consistent errors. These findings reveal critical limitations in current detection methods and underscore the need for improvement. Motivated by the observation that self-consistent errors often differ across LLMs, we propose a simple but effective cross-model probe method that fuses hidden state evidence from an external verifier LLM. Our method significantly enhances performance on self-consistent errors across three LLM families.