Dewei Leng

Mingyu Zhao, Zhaohan Li, Zhenxiong Miao et al.

Estimating original-space conditional expectations is central to value-driven recommender systems, including dwell time, GMV, and LTV forecasting. Standard MSE is expectation-consistent in principle, but its gradients become unstable on heavy-tailed, zero-inflated, and multimodal targets, causing mean collapse and tail shrinkage. Target transformation alleviates this scale conflict, yet any useful nonlinear marginal transform loses expectation consistency under direct inversion. This is not an implementation oversight: a direct inverse-transform estimator is universally expectation-consistent only when the inverse transform is affine, which cannot simultaneously provide bounded tail compression. Existing conditionally linear recovery methods restore expectation consistency, but still leave open which coordinate, inverse lookup, recovery base, and deployment monitor should be selected for sparse complex marginals. We propose \textbf{P}robability-\textbf{I}ntegral-\textbf{TranS}formed \textbf{Un}biased recovery (\textbf{PIT-SUN}), a deployable empirical marginal recovery framework. PIT-SUN uses one empirical marginal table to define a bounded normal-score coordinate, its inverse-quantile lookup, a variance-controlled recovery base, and drift monitoring, then applies multiplicative SUN recovery to estimate the original-space expectation instead of directly inverting transformed predictions. Experiments on synthetic distributions, public benchmarks, large-scale industrial datasets, and online deployment show robust improvements in point accuracy, calibration, and ranking quality with lightweight deployment overhead.

Zihua Si, Lin Guan, ZhongXiang Sun et al.

The significance of modeling long-term user interests for CTR prediction tasks in large-scale recommendation systems is progressively gaining attention among researchers and practitioners. Existing work, such as SIM and TWIN, typically employs a two-stage approach to model long-term user behavior sequences for efficiency concerns. The first stage rapidly retrieves a subset of sequences related to the target item from a long sequence using a search-based mechanism namely the General Search Unit (GSU), while the second stage calculates the interest scores using the Exact Search Unit (ESU) on the retrieved results. Given the extensive length of user behavior sequences spanning the entire life cycle, potentially reaching up to 10^6 in scale, there is currently no effective solution for fully modeling such expansive user interests. To overcome this issue, we introduced TWIN-V2, an enhancement of TWIN, where a divide-and-conquer approach is applied to compress life-cycle behaviors and uncover more accurate and diverse user interests. Specifically, a hierarchical clustering method groups items with similar characteristics in life-cycle behaviors into a single cluster during the offline phase. By limiting the size of clusters, we can compress behavior sequences well beyond the magnitude of 10^5 to a length manageable for online inference in GSU retrieval. Cluster-aware target attention extracts comprehensive and multi-faceted long-term interests of users, thereby making the final recommendation results more accurate and diverse. Extensive offline experiments on a multi-billion-scale industrial dataset and online A/B tests have demonstrated the effectiveness of TWIN-V2. Under an efficient deployment framework, TWIN-V2 has been successfully deployed to the primary traffic that serves hundreds of millions of daily active users at Kuaishou.