Shunshun Liu

Xingyu Xiao, Peng Chen, Jiejuan Tong et al.

Traditional human reliability analysis (HRA) methods, such as IDHEAS-ECA, rely on expert judgment and empirical rules that often overlook the cognitive underpinnings of human error. Moreover, conducting human-in-the-loop experiments for advanced nuclear power plants is increasingly impractical due to novel interfaces and limited operational data. This study proposes a cognitive-mechanistic framework (COGMIF) that enhances the IDHEAS-ECA methodology by integrating an ACT-R-based human digital twin (HDT) with TimeGAN-augmented simulation. The ACT-R model simulates operator cognition, including memory retrieval, goal-directed procedural reasoning, and perceptual-motor execution, under high-fidelity scenarios derived from a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) simulator. To overcome the resource constraints of large-scale cognitive modeling, TimeGAN is trained on ACT-R-generated time-series data to produce high-fidelity synthetic operator behavior datasets. These simulations are then used to drive IDHEAS-ECA assessments, enabling scalable, mechanism-informed estimation of human error probabilities (HEPs). Comparative analyses with SPAR-H and sensitivity assessments demonstrate the robustness and practical advantages of the proposed COGMIF. Finally, procedural features are mapped onto a Bayesian network to quantify the influence of contributing factors, revealing key drivers of operational risk. This work offers a credible and computationally efficient pathway to integrate cognitive theory into industrial HRA practices.

Zihan Guan, Rituparna Datta, Mengxuan Hu et al.

Mechanistic models encode scientific knowledge about dynamical systems and are widely used in downstream scientific and policy applications. Recent work has explored LLM-based agentic frameworks to automatically construct mechanistic models from data; however, existing problem settings substantially oversimplify real-world conditions, leaving it unclear whether LLM-generated mechanistic models are reliable in practice. To address this gap, we introduce the Neural-Integrated Mechanistic Modeling (NIMM) evaluation framework, which evaluates LLM-generated mechanistic models under realistic settings with partial observations and diversified task objectives. Our evaluation reveals fundamental challenges in current baselines, ranging from model effectiveness to code-level correctness. Motivated by these findings, we design NIMMgen, an agentic framework for neural-integrated mechanistic modeling that enhances code correctness and practical validity through iterative refinement. Experiments across three datasets from diversified scientific domains demonstrate its strong performance. We also show that the learned mechanistic models support counterfactual intervention simulation.