Liang Sun

Shikai Fang, Qingsong Wen, Yingtao Luo et al. · cmu

In real-world scenarios like traffic and energy, massive time-series data with missing values and noises are widely observed, even sampled irregularly. While many imputation methods have been proposed, most of them work with a local horizon, which means models are trained by splitting the long sequence into batches of fit-sized patches. This local horizon can make models ignore global trends or periodic patterns. More importantly, almost all methods assume the observations are sampled at regular time stamps, and fail to handle complex irregular sampled time series arising from different applications. Thirdly, most existing methods are learned in an offline manner. Thus, it is not suitable for many applications with fast-arriving streaming data. To overcome these limitations, we propose BayOTIDE: Bayesian Online Multivariate Time series Imputation with functional decomposition. We treat the multivariate time series as the weighted combination of groups of low-rank temporal factors with different patterns. We apply a group of Gaussian Processes (GPs) with different kernels as functional priors to fit the factors. For computational efficiency, we further convert the GPs into a state-space prior by constructing an equivalent stochastic differential equation (SDE), and developing a scalable algorithm for online inference. The proposed method can not only handle imputation over arbitrary time stamps, but also offer uncertainty quantification and interpretability for the downstream application. We evaluate our method on both synthetic and real-world datasets.We release the code at {https://github.com/xuangu-fang/BayOTIDE}

Yi-Fan Zhang, Qingsong Wen, Xue Wang et al.

Online updating of time series forecasting models aims to address the concept drifting problem by efficiently updating forecasting models based on streaming data. Many algorithms are designed for online time series forecasting, with some exploiting cross-variable dependency while others assume independence among variables. Given every data assumption has its own pros and cons in online time series modeling, we propose \textbf{On}line \textbf{e}nsembling \textbf{Net}work (OneNet). It dynamically updates and combines two models, with one focusing on modeling the dependency across the time dimension and the other on cross-variate dependency. Our method incorporates a reinforcement learning-based approach into the traditional online convex programming framework, allowing for the linear combination of the two models with dynamically adjusted weights. OneNet addresses the main shortcoming of classical online learning methods that tend to be slow in adapting to the concept drift. Empirical results show that OneNet reduces online forecasting error by more than $\mathbf{50\%}$ compared to the State-Of-The-Art (SOTA) method. The code is available at \url{https://github.com/yfzhang114/OneNet}.

Tian Zhou, PeiSong Niu, Xue Wang et al.

Although we have witnessed great success of pre-trained models in natural language processing (NLP) and computer vision (CV), limited progress has been made for general time series analysis. Unlike NLP and CV where a unified model can be used to perform different tasks, specially designed approach still dominates in each time series analysis task such as classification, anomaly detection, forecasting, and few-shot learning. The main challenge that blocks the development of pre-trained model for time series analysis is the lack of a large amount of data for training. In this work, we address this challenge by leveraging language or CV models, pre-trained from billions of tokens, for time series analysis. Specifically, we refrain from altering the self-attention and feedforward layers of the residual blocks in the pre-trained language or image model. This model, known as the Frozen Pretrained Transformer (FPT), is evaluated through fine-tuning on all major types of tasks involving time series. Our results demonstrate that pre-trained models on natural language or images can lead to a comparable or state-of-the-art performance in all main time series analysis tasks, as illustrated in Figure 1. We also found both theoretically and empirically that the self-attention module behaviors similarly to principle component analysis (PCA), an observation that helps explains how transformer bridges the domain gap and a crucial step towards understanding the universality of a pre-trained transformer.The code is publicly available at https://github.com/DAMO-DI-ML/One_Fits_All.

Tian Zhou, Ziqing Ma, Xue wang et al.

Recent studies have shown that deep learning models such as RNNs and Transformers have brought significant performance gains for long-term forecasting of time series because they effectively utilize historical information. We found, however, that there is still great room for improvement in how to preserve historical information in neural networks while avoiding overfitting to noise presented in the history. Addressing this allows better utilization of the capabilities of deep learning models. To this end, we design a \textbf{F}requency \textbf{i}mproved \textbf{L}egendre \textbf{M}emory model, or {\bf FiLM}: it applies Legendre Polynomials projections to approximate historical information, uses Fourier projection to remove noise, and adds a low-rank approximation to speed up computation. Our empirical studies show that the proposed FiLM significantly improves the accuracy of state-of-the-art models in multivariate and univariate long-term forecasting by (\textbf{20.3\%}, \textbf{22.6\%}), respectively. We also demonstrate that the representation module developed in this work can be used as a general plug-in to improve the long-term prediction performance of other deep learning modules. Code is available at https://github.com/tianzhou2011/FiLM/

Yiyuan Yang, Chaoli Zhang, Tian Zhou et al.

Time series anomaly detection is critical for a wide range of applications. It aims to identify deviant samples from the normal sample distribution in time series. The most fundamental challenge for this task is to learn a representation map that enables effective discrimination of anomalies. Reconstruction-based methods still dominate, but the representation learning with anomalies might hurt the performance with its large abnormal loss. On the other hand, contrastive learning aims to find a representation that can clearly distinguish any instance from the others, which can bring a more natural and promising representation for time series anomaly detection. In this paper, we propose DCdetector, a multi-scale dual attention contrastive representation learning model. DCdetector utilizes a novel dual attention asymmetric design to create the permutated environment and pure contrastive loss to guide the learning process, thus learning a permutation invariant representation with superior discrimination abilities. Extensive experiments show that DCdetector achieves state-of-the-art results on multiple time series anomaly detection benchmark datasets. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/DAMO-DI-ML/KDD2023-DCdetector.

Chaoli Zhang, Tian Zhou, Qingsong Wen et al.

Time series anomaly detection is a challenging problem due to the complex temporal dependencies and the limited label data. Although some algorithms including both traditional and deep models have been proposed, most of them mainly focus on time-domain modeling, and do not fully utilize the information in the frequency domain of the time series data. In this paper, we propose a Time-Frequency analysis based time series Anomaly Detection model, or TFAD for short, to exploit both time and frequency domains for performance improvement. Besides, we incorporate time series decomposition and data augmentation mechanisms in the designed time-frequency architecture to further boost the abilities of performance and interpretability. Empirical studies on widely used benchmark datasets show that our approach obtains state-of-the-art performance in univariate and multivariate time series anomaly detection tasks. Code is provided at https://github.com/DAMO-DI-ML/CIKM22-TFAD.

YanJun Zhao, Ziqing Ma, Tian Zhou et al.

Transformer-based models have emerged as promising tools for time series forecasting. However, these model cannot make accurate prediction for long input time series. On the one hand, they failed to capture global dependencies within time series data. On the other hand, the long input sequence usually leads to large model size and high time complexity. To address these limitations, we present GCformer, which combines a structured global convolutional branch for processing long input sequences with a local Transformer-based branch for capturing short, recent signals. A cohesive framework for a global convolution kernel has been introduced, utilizing three distinct parameterization methods. The selected structured convolutional kernel in the global branch has been specifically crafted with sublinear complexity, thereby allowing for the efficient and effective processing of lengthy and noisy input signals. Empirical studies on six benchmark datasets demonstrate that GCformer outperforms state-of-the-art methods, reducing MSE error in multivariate time series benchmarks by 4.38% and model parameters by 61.92%. In particular, the global convolutional branch can serve as a plug-in block to enhance the performance of other models, with an average improvement of 31.93\%, including various recently published Transformer-based models. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/zyj-111/GCformer.

Chenxiao Yang, Qitian Wu, Qingsong Wen et al.

The goal of sequential event prediction is to estimate the next event based on a sequence of historical events, with applications to sequential recommendation, user behavior analysis and clinical treatment. In practice, the next-event prediction models are trained with sequential data collected at one time and need to generalize to newly arrived sequences in remote future, which requires models to handle temporal distribution shift from training to testing. In this paper, we first take a data-generating perspective to reveal a negative result that existing approaches with maximum likelihood estimation would fail for distribution shift due to the latent context confounder, i.e., the common cause for the historical events and the next event. Then we devise a new learning objective based on backdoor adjustment and further harness variational inference to make it tractable for sequence learning problems. On top of that, we propose a framework with hierarchical branching structures for learning context-specific representations. Comprehensive experiments on diverse tasks (e.g., sequential recommendation) demonstrate the effectiveness, applicability and scalability of our method with various off-the-shelf models as backbones.

Dalin Qin, Yehui Li, Weiqi Chen et al.

Complex distribution shifts are the main obstacle to achieving accurate long-term time series forecasting. Several efforts have been conducted to capture the distribution characteristics and propose adaptive normalization techniques to alleviate the influence of distribution shifts. However, these methods neglect the intricate distribution dynamics observed from various scales and the evolving functions of distribution dynamics and normalized mapping relationships. To this end, we propose a novel model-agnostic Evolving Multi-Scale Normalization (EvoMSN) framework to tackle the distribution shift problem. Flexible normalization and denormalization are proposed based on the multi-scale statistics prediction module and adaptive ensembling. An evolving optimization strategy is designed to update the forecasting model and statistics prediction module collaboratively to track the shifting distributions. We evaluate the effectiveness of EvoMSN in improving the performance of five mainstream forecasting methods on benchmark datasets and also show its superiority compared to existing advanced normalization and online learning approaches. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/qindalin/EvoMSN.

Fan Yang, Kai He, Linxiao Yang et al.

Rule sets are highly interpretable logical models in which the predicates for decision are expressed in disjunctive normal form (DNF, OR-of-ANDs), or, equivalently, the overall model comprises an unordered collection of if-then decision rules. In this paper, we consider a submodular optimization based approach for learning rule sets. The learning problem is framed as a subset selection task in which a subset of all possible rules needs to be selected to form an accurate and interpretable rule set. We employ an objective function that exhibits submodularity and thus is amenable to submodular optimization techniques. To overcome the difficulty arose from dealing with the exponential-sized ground set of rules, the subproblem of searching a rule is casted as another subset selection task that asks for a subset of features. We show it is possible to write the induced objective function for the subproblem as a difference of two submodular (DS) functions to make it approximately solvable by DS optimization algorithms. Overall, the proposed approach is simple, scalable, and likely to be benefited from further research on submodular optimization. Experiments on real datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Zhiqiang Zhou, Chaoli Zhang, Lingna Ma et al.

The existing resource allocation policy for application instances in Kubernetes cannot dynamically adjust according to the requirement of business, which would cause an enormous waste of resources during fluctuations. Moreover, the emergence of new cloud services puts higher resource management requirements. This paper discusses horizontal POD resources management in Alibaba Cloud Container Services with a newly deployed AI algorithm framework named AHPA -- the adaptive horizontal pod auto-scaling system. Based on a robust decomposition forecasting algorithm and performance training model, AHPA offers an optimal pod number adjustment plan that could reduce POD resources and maintain business stability. Since being deployed in April 2021, this system has expanded to multiple customer scenarios, including logistics, social networks, AI audio and video, e-commerce, etc. Compared with the previous algorithms, AHPA solves the elastic lag problem, increasing CPU usage by 10% and reducing resource cost by more than 20%. In addition, AHPA can automatically perform flexible planning according to the predicted business volume without manual intervention, significantly saving operation and maintenance costs.

Hengbo Liu, Ziqing Ma, Linxiao Yang et al.

Accurate prediction of electric load is crucial in power grid planning and management. In this paper, we solve the electric load forecasting problem under extreme events such as scorching heats. One challenge for accurate forecasting is the lack of training samples under extreme conditions. Also load usually changes dramatically in these extreme conditions, which calls for interpretable model to make better decisions. In this paper, we propose a novel forecasting framework, named Self-adaptive Decomposed Interpretable framework~(SaDI), which ensembles long-term trend, short-term trend, and period modelings to capture temporal characteristics in different components. The external variable triggered loss is proposed for the imbalanced learning under extreme events. Furthermore, Generalized Additive Model (GAM) is employed in the framework for desirable interpretability. The experiments on both Central China electric load and public energy meters from buildings show that the proposed SaDI framework achieves average 22.14% improvement compared with the current state-of-the-art algorithms in forecasting under extreme events in terms of daily mean of normalized RMSE. Code, Public datasets, and Appendix are available at: https://doi.org/10.24433/CO.9696980.v1 .

Weiqi Chen, Wenwei Wang, Qilong Yuan et al.

Data-driven weather models have advanced global medium-range forecasting, yet high-resolution regional prediction remains challenging due to unresolved multiscale interactions between large-scale dynamics and small-scale processes such as terrain-induced circulations and coastal effects. This paper presents a global-regional coupling framework for kilometer-scale regional weather forecasting that synergistically couples a pretrained Transformer-based global model with a high-resolution regional network via a novel bidirectional coupling module, ScaleMixer. ScaleMixer dynamically identifies meteorologically critical regions through adaptive key-position sampling and enables cross-scale feature interaction through dedicated attention mechanisms. The framework produces forecasts at $0.05^\circ$ ($\sim 5 \mathrm{km}$ ) and 1-hour resolution over China, significantly outperforming operational NWP and AI baselines on both gridded reanalysis data and real-time weather station observations. It exhibits exceptional skill in capturing fine-grained phenomena such as orographic wind patterns and Foehn warming, demonstrating effective global-scale coherence with high-resolution fidelity. The code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/ScaleMixer-6B66.

Xiaomin Song, Qingsong Wen, Yan Li et al.

Dynamic time warping (DTW) is an effective dissimilarity measure in many time series applications. Despite its popularity, it is prone to noises and outliers, which leads to singularity problem and bias in the measurement. The time complexity of DTW is quadratic to the length of time series, making it inapplicable in real-time applications. In this paper, we propose a novel time series dissimilarity measure named RobustDTW to reduce the effects of noises and outliers. Specifically, the RobustDTW estimates the trend and optimizes the time warp in an alternating manner by utilizing our designed temporal graph trend filtering. To improve efficiency, we propose a multi-level framework that estimates the trend and the warp function at a lower resolution, and then repeatedly refines them at a higher resolution. Based on the proposed RobustDTW, we further extend it to periodicity detection and outlier time series detection. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate the superior performance of RobustDTW compared to DTW variants in both outlier time series detection and periodicity detection.

Peisong Niu, Haifan Zhang, Yang Zhao et al.

Tropical cyclones (TCs) pose severe threats to life, infrastructure, and economies in tropical and subtropical regions, underscoring the critical need for accurate and timely forecasts of both track and intensity. Recent advances in AI-based weather forecasting have shown promise in improving TC track forecasts. However, these systems are typically trained on coarse-resolution reanalysis data (e.g., ERA5 at 0.25 degree), which constrains predicted TC positions to a fixed grid and introduces significant discretization errors. Moreover, intensity forecasting remains limited especially for strong TCs by the smoothing effect of coarse meteorological fields and the use of regression losses that bias predictions toward conditional means. To address these limitations, we propose BaguanCyclone, a novel, unified framework that integrates two key innovations: (1) a probabilistic center refinement module that models the continuous spatial distribution of TC centers, enabling finer track precision; and (2) a region-aware intensity forecasting module that leverages high-resolution internal representations within dynamically defined sub-grid zones around the TC core to better capture localized extremes. Evaluated on the global IBTrACS dataset across six major TC basins, our system consistently outperforms both operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and most AI-based baselines, delivering a substantial enhancement in forecast accuracy. Remarkably, BaguanCyclone excels in navigating meteorological complexities, consistently delivering accurate forecasts for re-intensification, sweeping arcs, twin cyclones, and meandering events. Our code is available at https://github.com/DAMO-DI-ML/Baguan-cyclone.

Ziqing Ma, Kai Ying, Xinyue Gu et al.

Accurate day-ahead solar irradiance forecasting is essential for integrating solar energy into the power grid. However, it remains challenging due to the pronounced diurnal cycle and inherently complex cloud dynamics. Current methods either lack fine-scale resolution (e.g., numerical weather prediction, weather foundation models) or degrade at longer lead times (e.g., satellite extrapolation). We propose Baguan-solar, a two-stage multimodal framework that fuses forecasts from Baguan, a global weather foundation model, with high-resolution geostationary satellite imagery to produce 24- hour irradiance forecasts at kilometer scale. Its decoupled two-stage design first forecasts day-night continuous intermediates (e.g., cloud cover) and then infers irradiance, while its modality fusion jointly preserves fine-scale cloud structures from satellite and large-scale constraints from Baguan forecasts. Evaluated over East Asia using CLDAS as ground truth, Baguan-solar outperforms strong baselines (including ECMWF IFS, vanilla Baguan, and SolarSeer), reducing RMSE by 16.08% and better resolving cloud-induced transients. An operational deployment of Baguan-solar has supported solar power forecasting in an eastern province in China, since July 2025. Our code is accessible at https://github.com/DAMO-DI-ML/Baguansolar. git.

Qingsong Wen, Linxiao Yang, Liang Sun

Periodicity detection is an important task in time series analysis, but still a challenging problem due to the diverse characteristics of time series data like abrupt trend change, outlier, noise, and especially block missing data. In this paper, we propose a robust and effective periodicity detection algorithm for time series with block missing data. We first design a robust trend filter to remove the interference of complicated trend patterns under missing data. Then, we propose a robust autocorrelation function (ACF) that can handle missing values and outliers effectively. We rigorously prove that the proposed robust ACF can still work well when the length of the missing block is less than $1/3$ of the period length. Last, by combining the time-frequency information, our algorithm can generate the period length accurately. The experimental results demonstrate that our algorithm outperforms existing periodicity detection algorithms on real-world time series datasets.

Zhixian Wang, Qingsong Wen, Chaoli Zhang et al.

Energy (load, wind, photovoltaic) forecasting is significant in the power industry as it can provide a reference for subsequent tasks such as power grid dispatch, thus bringing huge economic benefits. However, there are many differences between energy forecasting and traditional time series forecasting. On the one hand, traditional time series mainly focus on capturing characteristics like trends and cycles. In contrast, the energy series is largely influenced by many external factors, such as meteorological and calendar variables. On the other hand, energy forecasting aims to minimize the cost of subsequent tasks such as power grid dispatch, rather than simply pursuing prediction accuracy. In addition, the scale of energy data can also significantly impact the predicted results. In this paper, we collected large-scale load datasets and released a new renewable energy dataset that contains both station-level and region-level renewable generation data with meteorological data. For load data, we also included load domain-specific feature engineering and provided a method to customize the loss function and link the forecasting error to requirements related to subsequent tasks (such as power grid dispatching costs), integrating it into our forecasting framework. Based on such a situation, we conducted extensive experiments with 21 forecasting methods in these energy datasets at different levels under 11 evaluation metrics, providing a comprehensive reference for researchers to compare different energy forecasting models.

Linxiao Yang, Rui Ren, Xinyue Gu et al.

Electric load forecasting is an indispensable component of electric power system planning and management. Inaccurate load forecasting may lead to the threat of outages or a waste of energy. Accurate electric load forecasting is challenging when there is limited data or even no data, such as load forecasting in holiday, or under extreme weather conditions. As high-stakes decision-making usually follows after load forecasting, model interpretability is crucial for the adoption of forecasting models. In this paper, we propose an interactive GAM which is not only interpretable but also can incorporate specific domain knowledge in electric power industry for improved performance. This boosting-based GAM leverages piecewise linear functions and can be learned through our efficient algorithm. In both public benchmark and electricity datasets, our interactive GAM outperforms current state-of-the-art methods and demonstrates good generalization ability in the cases of extreme weather events. We launched a user-friendly web-based tool based on interactive GAM and already incorporated it into our eForecaster product, a unified AI platform for electricity forecasting.

Tian Zhou, Jianqing Zhu, Xue Wang et al.

Various deep learning models, especially some latest Transformer-based approaches, have greatly improved the state-of-art performance for long-term time series forecasting.However, those transformer-based models suffer a severe deterioration performance with prolonged input length, which prohibits them from using extended historical info.Moreover, these methods tend to handle complex examples in long-term forecasting with increased model complexity, which often leads to a significant increase in computation and less robustness in performance(e.g., overfitting). We propose a novel neural network architecture, called TreeDRNet, for more effective long-term forecasting. Inspired by robust regression, we introduce doubly residual link structure to make prediction more robust.Built upon Kolmogorov-Arnold representation theorem, we explicitly introduce feature selection, model ensemble, and a tree structure to further utilize the extended input sequence, which improves the robustness and representation power of TreeDRNet. Unlike previous deep models for sequential forecasting work, TreeDRNet is built entirely on multilayer perceptron and thus enjoys high computational efficiency. Our extensive empirical studies show that TreeDRNet is significantly more effective than state-of-the-art methods, reducing prediction errors by 20% to 40% for multivariate time series. In particular, TreeDRNet is over 10 times more efficient than transformer-based methods. The code will be released soon.

Shijie Ren, Xinyue Gu, Ziheng Peng et al.

Deep learning models for meteorological forecasting often fail in rare but high-impact events such as typhoons, where relevant data is scarce. Existing fine-tuning methods typically face a trade-off between overlooking these extreme events and overfitting them at the expense of overall performance. We propose TaCT, an interpretable concept-gated fine-tuning framework that solves the aforementioned issue by selective model improvement: models are adapted specifically for failure cases while preserving performance in common scenarios. To this end, TaCT automatically discovers failure-related internal concepts using Sparse Autoencoders and counterfactual analysis, and updates parameters only when the corresponding concepts are activated, rather than applying uniform adaptation. Experiments show consistent improvements in typhoon forecasting across different regions without degrading other meteorological variables. The identified concepts correspond to physically meaningful circulation patterns, revealing model biases and supporting trustworthy adaptation in scientific forecasting tasks. The code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/Concept-Gated-Fine-tune-62AC.

Jiaming Liu, Dingwei Fan, Junyong Zhao et al.

The anatomical structure segmentation of the spine and adjacent structures from computed tomography (CT) images is a key step for spinal disease diagnosis and treatment. However, the segmentation of CT images is impeded by low contrast and complex vertebral boundaries. Although advanced models such as the Segment Anything Model (SAM) have shown promise in various segmentation tasks, their performance in spinal CT imaging is limited by high annotation requirements and poor domain adaptability. To address these limitations, we propose SpinalSAM-R1, a multimodal vision-language interactive system that integrates a fine-tuned SAM with DeepSeek-R1, for spine CT image segmentation. Specifically, our SpinalSAM-R1 introduces an anatomy-guided attention mechanism to improve spine segmentation performance, and a semantics-driven interaction protocol powered by DeepSeek-R1, enabling natural language-guided refinement. The SpinalSAM-R1 is fine-tuned using Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) for efficient adaptation. We validate our SpinalSAM-R1 on the spine anatomical structure with CT images. Experimental results suggest that our method achieves superior segmentation performance. Meanwhile, we develop a PyQt5-based interactive software, which supports point, box, and text-based prompts. The system supports 11 clinical operations with 94.3\% parsing accuracy and sub-800 ms response times. The software is released on https://github.com/6jm233333/spinalsam-r1.

Binqing Wu, Weiqi Chen, Wengwei Wang et al.

Due to insufficient local area information, numerical weather prediction (NWP) may yield biases for specific areas. Previous studies correct biases mainly by employing handcrafted features or applying data-driven methods intuitively, overlooking the complicated dependencies between weather factors and between areas. To address this issue, we propose WeatherGNN, a local NWP bias-correction method that utilizes Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to exploit meteorological dependencies and spatial dependencies under the guidance of domain knowledge. Specifically, we introduce a factor GNN to capture area-specific meteorological dependencies adaptively based on spatial heterogeneity and a fast hierarchical GNN to capture dynamic spatial dependencies efficiently guided by Tobler's first and second laws of geography. Our experimental results on two real-world datasets demonstrate that WeatherGNN achieves the state-of-the-art performance, outperforming the best baseline with an average of 4.75 \% on RMSE.

Liqun Yang, Jian Yang, Chaoren Wei et al.

Fuzzing is an important dynamic program analysis technique designed for finding vulnerabilities in complex software. Fuzzing involves presenting a target program with crafted malicious input to cause crashes, buffer overflows, memory errors, and exceptions. Crafting malicious inputs in an efficient manner is a difficult open problem and the best approaches often apply uniform random mutations to pre-existing valid inputs. In this work, we propose to adopt fine-tuned large language models (FuzzCoder) to learn patterns in the input files from successful attacks to guide future fuzzing explorations. Specifically, we develop a framework to leverage the code LLMs to guide the mutation process of inputs in fuzzing. The mutation process is formulated as the sequence-to-sequence modeling, where LLM receives a sequence of bytes and then outputs the mutated byte sequence. FuzzCoder is fine-tuned on the created instruction dataset (Fuzz-Instruct), where the successful fuzzing history is collected from the heuristic fuzzing tool. FuzzCoder can predict mutation locations and strategies locations in input files to trigger abnormal behaviors of the program. Experimental results show that FuzzCoder based on AFL (American Fuzzy Lop) gain significant improvements in terms of effective proportion of mutation (EPM) and number of crashes (NC) for various input formats including ELF, JPG, MP3, and XML.

Jiehui Zhou, Linxiao Yang, Xingyu Liu et al.

In causal inference, estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) is critical for identifying how different subgroups respond to interventions, with broad applications in fields such as precision medicine and personalized advertising. Although HTE estimation methods aim to improve accuracy, how to provide explicit subgroup descriptions remains unclear, hindering data interpretation and strategic intervention management. In this paper, we propose CURLS, a novel rule learning method leveraging HTE, which can effectively describe subgroups with significant treatment effects. Specifically, we frame causal rule learning as a discrete optimization problem, finely balancing treatment effect with variance and considering the rule interpretability. We design an iterative procedure based on the minorize-maximization algorithm and solve a submodular lower bound as an approximation for the original. Quantitative experiments and qualitative case studies verify that compared with state-of-the-art methods, CURLS can find subgroups where the estimated and true effects are 16.1% and 13.8% higher and the variance is 12.0% smaller, while maintaining similar or better estimation accuracy and rule interpretability. Code is available at https://osf.io/zwp2k/.

Kamal Acharya, Alvaro Velasquez, Yongxin Liu et al.

Weather disaster related emergency operations pose a great challenge to air mobility in both aircraft and airport operations, especially when the impact is gradually approaching. We propose an optimized framework for adjusting airport operational schedules for such pre-disaster scenarios. We first, aggregate operational data from multiple airports and then determine the optimal count of evacuation flights to maximize the impacted airport's outgoing capacity without impeding regular air traffic. We then propose a novel Neural Network (NN) accelerated Genetic Algorithm(GA) for evacuation planning. Our experiments show that integration yielded comparable results but with smaller computational overhead. We find that the utilization of a NN enhances the efficiency of a GA, facilitating more rapid convergence even when operating with a reduced population size. This effectiveness persists even when the model is trained on data from airports different from those under test.

Linxiao Yang, Xue Jiang, Gezheng Xu et al.

Transformers enable in-context learning (ICL) for rapid, gradient-free adaptation in time series forecasting, yet most ICL-style approaches rely on tabularized, hand-crafted features, while end-to-end sequence models lack inference-time adaptation. We bridge this gap with a unified framework, Baguan-TS, which integrates the raw-sequence representation learning with ICL, instantiated by a 3D Transformer that attends jointly over temporal, variable, and context axes. To make this high-capacity model practical, we tackle two key hurdles: (i) calibration and training stability, improved with a feature-agnostic, target-space retrieval-based local calibration; and (ii) output oversmoothing, mitigated via context-overfitting strategy. On public benchmark with covariates, Baguan-TS consistently outperforms established baselines, achieving the highest win rate and significant reductions in both point and probabilistic forecasting metrics. Further evaluations across diverse real-world energy datasets demonstrate its robustness, yielding substantial improvements.

Peisong Niu, Tian Zhou, Xue Wang et al.

In the burgeoning domain of Large Language Models (LLMs), there is a growing interest in applying LLM to time series forecasting, with multiple studies focused on leveraging textual prompts to further enhance the predictive prowess. This study aims to understand how and why the integration of textual prompts into LLM can effectively improve the prediction accuracy of time series, which is not obvious at the glance, given the significant domain gap between texts and time series. Our extensive examination leads us to believe that (a) adding text prompts is roughly equivalent to introducing additional adapters, and (b) It is the introduction of learnable parameters rather than textual information that aligns the LLM with the time series forecasting task, ultimately enhancing prediction accuracy. Inspired by this discovery, we developed four adapters that explicitly address the gap between LLM and time series, and further improve the prediction accuracy. Overall,our work highlights how textual prompts enhance LLM accuracy in time series forecasting and suggests new avenues for continually improving LLM-based time series analysis.

Hao Cheng, Qingsong Wen, Yang Liu et al.

Time series forecasting is an important and forefront task in many real-world applications. However, most of time series forecasting techniques assume that the training data is clean without anomalies. This assumption is unrealistic since the collected time series data can be contaminated in practice. The forecasting model will be inferior if it is directly trained by time series with anomalies. Thus it is essential to develop methods to automatically learn a robust forecasting model from the contaminated data. In this paper, we first statistically define three types of anomalies, then theoretically and experimentally analyze the loss robustness and sample robustness when these anomalies exist. Based on our analyses, we propose a simple and efficient algorithm to learn a robust forecasting model. Extensive experiments show that our method is highly robust and outperforms all existing approaches. The code is available at https://github.com/haochenglouis/RobustTSF.

Yizhen Guo, Tian Zhou, Wanyi Jiang et al.

Weather and climate forecasting is vital for sectors such as agriculture and disaster management. Although numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems have advanced, forecasting at the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) scale, spanning 2 to 6 weeks, remains challenging due to the chaotic and sparse atmospheric signals at this interval. Even state-of-the-art deep learning models struggle to outperform simple climatology models in this domain. This paper identifies that optimization, instead of network structure, could be the root cause of this performance gap, and then we develop a novel multi-stage optimization strategy to close the gap. Extensive empirical studies demonstrate that our multi-stage optimization approach significantly improves key skill metrics, PCC and TCC, while utilizing the same backbone structure, surpassing the state-of-the-art NWP systems (ECMWF-S2S) by over \textbf{19-91\%}. Our research contests the recent study that direct forecasting outperforms rolling forecasting for S2S tasks. Through theoretical analysis, we propose that the underperformance of rolling forecasting may arise from the accumulation of Jacobian matrix products during training. Our multi-stage framework can be viewed as a form of teacher forcing to address this issue. Code is available at \url{https://anonymous.4open.science/r/Baguan-S2S-23E7/}

Yifan Hu, Jie Yang, Tian Zhou et al.

Although contrastive and other representation-learning methods have long been explored in vision and NLP, their adoption in modern time series forecasters remains limited. We believe they hold strong promise for this domain. To unlock this potential, we explicitly align past and future representations, thereby bridging the distributional gap between input histories and future targets. To this end, we introduce TimeAlign, a lightweight, plug-and-play framework that establishes a new representation paradigm, distinct from contrastive learning, by aligning auxiliary features via a simple reconstruction task and feeding them back into any base forecaster. Extensive experiments across eight benchmarks verify its superior performance. Further studies indicate that the gains arise primarily from correcting frequency mismatches between historical inputs and future outputs. Additionally, we provide two theoretical justifications for how reconstruction improves forecasting generalization and how alignment increases the mutual information between learned representations and predicted targets. The code is available at https://github.com/TROUBADOUR000/TimeAlign.

Pengwei Liu, Wenwei Wang, Bingqing Peng et al.

While widely recognized as one of the most substantial weather forecasting methodologies, Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) usually suffers from relatively coarse resolution and inevitable bias due to tempo-spatial discretization, physical parametrization process, and computation limitation. With the roaring growth of deep learning-based techniques, we propose the Dual-Stage Adaptive Framework (DSAF), a novel framework to address regional NWP downscaling and bias correction tasks. DSAF uniquely incorporates adaptive elements in its design to ensure a flexible response to evolving weather conditions. Specifically, NWP downscaling and correction are well-decoupled in the framework and can be applied independently, which strategically guides the optimization trajectory of the model. Utilizing a multi-task learning mechanism and an uncertainty-weighted loss function, DSAF facilitates balanced training across various weather factors. Additionally, our specifically designed attention-centric learnable module effectively integrates geographic information, proficiently managing complex interrelationships. Experimental validation on the ECMWF operational forecast (HRES) and reanalysis (ERA5) archive demonstrates DSAF's superior performance over existing state-of-the-art models and shows substantial improvements when existing models are augmented using our proposed modules. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/pengwei07/DSAF.

Linyuan Geng, Linxiao Yang, Xinyue Gu et al.

This paper presents SolarBoost, a novel approach for forecasting power output in distributed photovoltaic (DPV) systems. While existing centralized photovoltaic (CPV) methods are able to precisely model output dependencies due to uniformity, it is difficult to apply such techniques to DPV systems, as DPVs face challenges such as missing grid-level data, temporal shifts in installed capacity, geographic variability, and panel diversity. SolarBoost overcomes these challenges by modeling aggregated power output as a composite of output from small grids, where each grid output is modeled using a unit output function multiplied by its capacity. This approach decouples the homogeneous unit output function from dynamic capacity for accurate prediction. Efficient algorithms over an upper-bound approximation are proposed to overcome computational bottlenecks in loss functions. We demonstrate the superiority of grid-level modeling via theoretical analysis and experiments. SolarBoost has been validated through deployment across various cities in China, significantly reducing potential losses and provides valuable insights for the operation of power grids. The code for this work is available at https://github.com/DAMO-DI-ML/SolarBoost.

Chao Chen, Tian Zhou, Yanjun Zhao et al.

Spatio-temporal forecasting is crucial in various fields and requires a careful balance between identifying subtle patterns and filtering out noise. Vector quantization (VQ) appears well-suited for this purpose, as it quantizes input vectors into a set of codebook vectors or patterns. Although VQ has shown promise in various computer vision tasks, it surprisingly falls short in enhancing the accuracy of spatio-temporal forecasting. We attribute this to two main issues: inaccurate optimization due to non-differentiability and limited representation power in hard-VQ. To tackle these challenges, we introduce Differentiable Sparse Soft-Vector Quantization (SVQ), the first VQ method to enhance spatio-temporal forecasting. SVQ balances detail preservation with noise reduction, offering full differentiability and a solid foundation in sparse regression. Our approach employs a two-layer MLP and an extensive codebook to streamline the sparse regression process, significantly cutting computational costs while simplifying training and improving performance. Empirical studies on five spatio-temporal benchmark datasets show SVQ achieves state-of-the-art results, including a 7.9% improvement on the WeatherBench-S temperature dataset and an average mean absolute error reduction of 9.4% in video prediction benchmarks (Human3.6M, KTH, and KittiCaltech), along with a 17.3% enhancement in image quality (LPIPS). Code is publicly available at https://github.com/Pachark/SVQ-Forecasting.

Tian Zhou, Ziqing Ma, Qingsong Wen et al.

Although Transformer-based methods have significantly improved state-of-the-art results for long-term series forecasting, they are not only computationally expensive but more importantly, are unable to capture the global view of time series (e.g. overall trend). To address these problems, we propose to combine Transformer with the seasonal-trend decomposition method, in which the decomposition method captures the global profile of time series while Transformers capture more detailed structures. To further enhance the performance of Transformer for long-term prediction, we exploit the fact that most time series tend to have a sparse representation in well-known basis such as Fourier transform, and develop a frequency enhanced Transformer. Besides being more effective, the proposed method, termed as Frequency Enhanced Decomposed Transformer ({\bf FEDformer}), is more efficient than standard Transformer with a linear complexity to the sequence length. Our empirical studies with six benchmark datasets show that compared with state-of-the-art methods, FEDformer can reduce prediction error by $14.8\%$ and $22.6\%$ for multivariate and univariate time series, respectively. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/MAZiqing/FEDformer.

Lu Dai, Liang Sun, Fanpu Cao et al.

Modern information retrieval (IR) is no longer consumed primarily by humans but increasingly by large language models (LLMs) via retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) and agentic search. Unlike human users, LLMs are constrained by limited attention budgets and are uniquely vulnerable to noise; misleading or irrelevant information is no longer just a nuisance, but a direct cause of hallucinations and reasoning failures. In this perspective paper, we argue that denoising-maximizing usable evidence density and verifiability within a context window-is becoming the primary bottleneck across the full information access pipeline. We conceptualize this paradigm shift through a four-stage framework of IR challenges: from inaccessible to undiscoverable, to misaligned, and finally to unverifiable. Furthermore, we provide a pipeline-organized taxonomy of signal-to-noise optimization techniques, spanning indexing, retrieval, context engineering, verification, and agentic workflow. We also present research works on information denoising in domains that rely heavily on retrieval such as lifelong assistant, coding agent, deep research, and multimodal understanding.

Ziqing Ma, Wenwei Wang, Tian Zhou et al.

Accurate solar power forecasting is crucial to integrate photovoltaic plants into the electric grid, schedule and secure the power grid safety. This problem becomes more demanding for those newly installed solar plants which lack sufficient data. Current research predominantly relies on historical solar power data or numerical weather prediction in a single-modality format, ignoring the complementary information provided in different modalities. In this paper, we propose a multi-modality fusion framework to integrate historical power data, numerical weather prediction, and satellite images, significantly improving forecast performance. We introduce a vector quantized framework that aligns modalities with varying information densities, striking a balance between integrating sufficient information and averting model overfitting. Our framework demonstrates strong zero-shot forecasting capability, which is especially useful for those newly installed plants. Moreover, we collect and release a multi-modal solar power (MMSP) dataset from real-world plants to further promote the research of multi-modal solar forecasting algorithms. Our extensive experiments show that our model not only operates with robustness but also boosts accuracy in both zero-shot forecasting and scenarios rich with training data, surpassing leading models. We have incorporated it into our eForecaster platform and deployed it for more than 300 solar plants with a capacity of over 15GW.

PeiSong Niu, Tian Zhou, Xue Wang et al.

Time series forecasting is essential for many practical applications, with the adoption of transformer-based models on the rise due to their impressive performance in NLP and CV. Transformers' key feature, the attention mechanism, dynamically fusing embeddings to enhance data representation, often relegating attention weights to a byproduct role. Yet, time series data, characterized by noise and non-stationarity, poses significant forecasting challenges. Our approach elevates attention weights as the primary representation for time series, capitalizing on the temporal relationships among data points to improve forecasting accuracy. Our study shows that an attention map, structured using global landmarks and local windows, acts as a robust kernel representation for data points, withstanding noise and shifts in distribution. Our method outperforms state-of-the-art models, reducing mean squared error (MSE) in multivariate time series forecasting by a notable 3.6% without altering the core neural network architecture. It serves as a versatile component that can readily replace recent patching based embedding schemes in transformer-based models, boosting their performance.

YiFan Zhang, Weiqi Chen, Zhaoyang Zhu et al.

Online updating of time series forecasting models aims to tackle the challenge of concept drifting by adjusting forecasting models based on streaming data. While numerous algorithms have been developed, most of them focus on model design and updating. In practice, many of these methods struggle with continuous performance regression in the face of accumulated concept drifts over time. To address this limitation, we present a novel approach, Concept \textbf{D}rift \textbf{D}etection an\textbf{D} \textbf{A}daptation (D3A), that first detects drifting conception and then aggressively adapts the current model to the drifted concepts after the detection for rapid adaption. To best harness the utility of historical data for model adaptation, we propose a data augmentation strategy introducing Gaussian noise into existing training instances. It helps mitigate the data distribution gap, a critical factor contributing to train-test performance inconsistency. The significance of our data augmentation process is verified by our theoretical analysis. Our empirical studies across six datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of D3A in improving model adaptation capability. Notably, compared to a simple Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) baseline, D3A reduces the average Mean Squared Error (MSE) by $43.9\%$. For the state-of-the-art (SOTA) model, the MSE is reduced by $33.3\%$.

Yingtao Luo, Shikai Fang, Binqing Wu et al. · cmu

Weather forecasting is essential but remains computationally intensive and physically incomplete in traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) methods. Deep learning (DL) models offer efficiency and accuracy but often ignore physical laws, limiting interpretability and generalization. We propose PhyDL-NWP, a physics-guided deep learning framework that integrates physical equations with latent force parameterization into data-driven models. It predicts weather variables from arbitrary spatiotemporal coordinates, computes physical terms via automatic differentiation, and uses a physics-informed loss to align predictions with governing dynamics. PhyDL-NWP enables resolution-free downscaling by modeling weather as a continuous function and fine-tunes pre-trained models with minimal overhead, achieving up to 170x faster inference with only 55K parameters. Experiments show that PhyDL-NWP improves both forecasting performance and physical consistency.

Yanjun Zhao, Tian Zhou, Chao Chen et al.

Time series analysis is vital for numerous applications, and transformers have become increasingly prominent in this domain. Leading methods customize the transformer architecture from NLP and CV, utilizing a patching technique to convert continuous signals into segments. Yet, time series data are uniquely challenging due to significant distribution shifts and intrinsic noise levels. To address these two challenges,we introduce the Sparse Vector Quantized FFN-Free Transformer (Sparse-VQ). Our methodology capitalizes on a sparse vector quantization technique coupled with Reverse Instance Normalization (RevIN) to reduce noise impact and capture sufficient statistics for forecasting, serving as an alternative to the Feed-Forward layer (FFN) in the transformer architecture. Our FFN-free approach trims the parameter count, enhancing computational efficiency and reducing overfitting. Through evaluations across ten benchmark datasets, including the newly introduced CAISO dataset, Sparse-VQ surpasses leading models with a 7.84% and 4.17% decrease in MAE for univariate and multivariate time series forecasting, respectively. Moreover, it can be seamlessly integrated with existing transformer-based models to elevate their performance.

Kamal Acharya, Iman Sharifi, Mehul Lad et al.

Neurosymbolic AI combines neural network adaptability with symbolic reasoning, promising an approach to address the complex regulatory, operational, and safety challenges in Advanced Air Mobility (AAM). This survey reviews its applications across key AAM domains such as demand forecasting, aircraft design, and real-time air traffic management. Our analysis reveals a fragmented research landscape where methodologies, including Neurosymbolic Reinforcement Learning, have shown potential for dynamic optimization but still face hurdles in scalability, robustness, and compliance with aviation standards. We classify current advancements, present relevant case studies, and outline future research directions aimed at integrating these approaches into reliable, transparent AAM systems. By linking advanced AI techniques with AAM's operational demands, this work provides a concise roadmap for researchers and practitioners developing next-generation air mobility solutions.

Peisong Niu, Ziqing Ma, Tian Zhou et al.

Weather forecasting has long posed a significant challenge for humanity. While recent AI-based models have surpassed traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) methods in global forecasting tasks, overfitting remains a critical issue due to the limited availability of real-world weather data spanning only a few decades. Unlike fields like computer vision or natural language processing, where data abundance can mitigate overfitting, weather forecasting demands innovative strategies to address this challenge with existing data. In this paper, we explore pre-training methods for weather forecasting, finding that selecting an appropriately challenging pre-training task introduces locality bias, effectively mitigating overfitting and enhancing performance. We introduce Baguan, a novel data-driven model for medium-range weather forecasting, built on a Siamese Autoencoder pre-trained in a self-supervised manner and fine-tuned for different lead times. Experimental results show that Baguan outperforms traditional methods, delivering more accurate forecasts. Additionally, the pre-trained Baguan demonstrates robust overfitting control and excels in downstream tasks, such as subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) modeling and regional forecasting, after fine-tuning.

Kamal Acharya, Mehul Lad, Liang Sun et al.

Travel demand prediction is crucial for optimizing transportation planning, resource allocation, and infrastructure development, ensuring efficient mobility and economic sustainability. This study introduces a Neurosymbolic Artificial Intelligence (Neurosymbolic AI) framework that integrates decision tree (DT)-based symbolic rules with neural networks (NNs) to predict travel demand, leveraging the interpretability of symbolic reasoning and the predictive power of neural learning. The framework utilizes data from diverse sources, including geospatial, economic, and mobility datasets, to build a comprehensive feature set. DTs are employed to extract interpretable if-then rules that capture key patterns, which are then incorporated as additional features into a NN to enhance its predictive capabilities. Experimental results show that the combined dataset, enriched with symbolic rules, consistently outperforms standalone datasets across multiple evaluation metrics, including Mean Absolute Error (MAE), \(R^2\), and Common Part of Commuters (CPC). Rules selected at finer variance thresholds (e.g., 0.0001) demonstrate superior effectiveness in capturing nuanced relationships, reducing prediction errors, and aligning with observed commuter patterns. By merging symbolic and neural learning paradigms, this Neurosymbolic approach achieves both interpretability and accuracy.

Liang Sun

Based on the Distributed Convolutional Neural Network(DisCNN), a straightforward object detection method is proposed. The modules of the output vector of a DisCNN with respect to a specific positive class are positively monotonic with the presence probabilities of the positive features. So, by identifying all high-scoring patches across all possible scales, the positive object can be detected by overlapping them to form a bounding box. The essential idea is that the object is detected by detecting its features on multiple scales, ranging from specific sub-features to abstract features composed of these sub-features. Training DisCNN requires only object-centered image data with positive and negative class labels. The detection process for multiple positive classes can be conducted in parallel to significantly accelerate it, and also faster for single-object detection because of its lightweight model architecture.

Liang Sun

This paper proposes a novel loss function for training a distributed convolutional neural network (DisCNN) to recognize only a specific positive class. By mapping positive samples to a compact set in high-dimensional space and negative samples to Origin, the DisCNN extracts only the features of the positive class. An experiment is given to prove this. Thus, the features of the positive class are disentangled from those of the negative classes. The model has a lightweight architecture because only a few positive-class features need to be extracted. The model demonstrates excellent generalization on the test data and remains effective even for unseen classes. Finally, using DisCNN, object detection of positive samples embedded in a large and complex background is straightforward.

Ziheng Peng, Shijie Ren, Xinyue Gu et al.

While deep learning has achieved impressive performance in time series forecasting, it becomes increasingly crucial to understand its decision-making process for building trust in high-stakes scenarios. Existing interpretable models often provide only local and partial explanations, lacking the capability to reveal how heterogeneous and interacting input variables jointly shape the overall temporal patterns in the forecast curve. We propose ProtoTS, a novel interpretable forecasting framework that achieves both high accuracy and transparent decision-making through modeling prototypical temporal patterns. ProtoTS computes instance-prototype similarity based on a denoised representation that preserves abundant heterogeneous information. The prototypes are organized hierarchically to capture global temporal patterns with coarse prototypes while capturing finer-grained local variations with detailed prototypes, enabling expert steering and multi-level interpretability. Experiments on multiple realistic benchmarks, including a newly released LOF dataset, show that ProtoTS not only exceeds existing methods in forecast accuracy but also delivers expert-steerable interpretations for better model understanding and decision support.

Zhaoyang Zhu, Zhipeng Zeng, Qiming Chen et al.

Electric load forecasting is pivotal for power system operation, planning and decision-making. The rise of smart grids and meters has provided more detailed and high-quality load data at multiple levels of granularity, from home to bus and cities. Motivated by similar patterns of loads across different cities in a province in eastern China, in this paper we focus on the Multi-Region Electric Load Forecasting (MRELF) problem, targeting accurate short-term load forecasting for multiple sub-regions within a large region. We identify three challenges for MRELF, including regional variation, contextual variation, and temporal variation. To address them, we propose TriForecaster, a new framework leveraging the Mixture of Experts (MoE) approach within a Multi-Task Learning (MTL) paradigm to overcome these challenges. TriForecaster features RegionMixer and Context-Time Specializer (CTSpecializer) layers, enabling dynamic cooperation and specialization of expert models across regional, contextual, and temporal dimensions. Based on evaluation on four real-world MRELF datasets with varied granularity, TriForecaster outperforms state-of-the-art models by achieving an average forecast error reduction of 22.4\%, thereby demonstrating its flexibility and broad applicability. In particular, the deployment of TriForecaster on the eForecaster platform in eastern China exemplifies its practical utility, effectively providing city-level, short-term load forecasts for 17 cities, supporting a population exceeding 110 million and daily electricity usage over 100 gigawatt-hours.

Linxiao Yang, Xinyu Gu, Liang Sun

As an effective approach to quantify how training samples influence test sample, data attribution is crucial for understanding data and model and further enhance the transparency of machine learning models. We find that prevailing data attribution methods based on leave-one-out (LOO) strategy suffer from the local-based explanation, as these LOO-based methods only perturb a single training sample, and overlook the collective influence in the training set. On the other hand, the lack of baseline in many data attribution methods reduces the flexibility of the explanation, e.g., failing to provide counterfactual explanations. In this paper, we propose Integrated Influence, a novel data attribution method that incorporates a baseline approach. Our method defines a baseline dataset, follows a data degeneration process to transition the current dataset to the baseline, and accumulates the influence of each sample throughout this process. We provide a solid theoretical framework for our method, and further demonstrate that popular methods, such as influence functions, can be viewed as special cases of our approach. Experimental results show that Integrated Influence generates more reliable data attributions compared to existing methods in both data attribution task and mislablled example identification task.

Kamal Acharya, Mehul Lad, Liang Sun et al.

Accurate prediction of trips between zones is critical for transportation planning, as it supports resource allocation and infrastructure development across various modes of transport. Although the gravity model has been widely used due to its simplicity, it often inadequately represents the complex factors influencing modern travel behavior. This study introduces a data-driven approach to enhance the gravity model by integrating geographical, economic, social, and travel data from the counties in Tennessee and New York state. Using machine learning techniques, we extend the capabilities of the traditional model to handle more complex interactions between variables. Our experiments demonstrate that machine learning-enhanced models significantly outperform the traditional model. Our results show a 51.48% improvement in R-squared, indicating a substantial enhancement in the model's explanatory power. Also, a 63.59% reduction in Mean Absolute Error (MAE) reflects a significant increase in prediction accuracy. Furthermore, a 44.32% increase in Common Part of Commuters (CPC) demonstrates improved prediction reliability. These findings highlight the substantial benefits of integrating diverse datasets and advanced algorithms into transportation models. They provide urban planners and policymakers with more reliable forecasting and decision-making tools.