Ruggiero Lovreglio

Xiaojian Zhang, Xilei Zhao, Yiming Xu et al.

Real-time forecasting of travel demand during wildfire evacuations is crucial for emergency managers and transportation planners to make timely and better-informed decisions. However, few studies focus on accurate travel demand forecasting in large-scale emergency evacuations. Therefore, this study develops and tests a new methodological framework for modeling trip generation in wildfire evacuations by using (a) large-scale GPS data generated by mobile devices and (b) state-of-the-art AI technologies. The proposed methodology aims at forecasting evacuation trips and other types of trips. Based on the travel demand inferred from the GPS data, we develop a new deep learning model, i.e., Situational-Aware Multi-Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network (SA-MGCRN), along with a model updating scheme to achieve real-time forecasting of travel demand during wildfire evacuations. The proposed methodological framework is tested in this study for a real-world case study: the 2019 Kincade Fire in Sonoma County, CA. The results show that SA-MGCRN significantly outperforms all the selected state-of-the-art benchmarks in terms of prediction performance. Our finding suggests that the most important model components of SA-MGCRN are evacuation order/warning information, proximity to fire, and population change, which are consistent with behavioral theories and empirical findings.

R Lovreglio, E Dillies, E Kuligowski et al.

In the event of a fire emergency in the built environment, occupants face a range of evacuation decisions, including the choice of exits. An important question from the standpoint of evacuation safety is how evacuees make these choices and what factors affect their choices. Understanding how humans weigh these (often) competing factors is essential knowledge for evacuation planning and safe design. Here, we use immersive Virtual Reality (VR) experiments to investigate, in controlled settings, how these trade-offs are made using empirical data and econometric choice models. In each VR scenario, participants are confronted with trade-offs between choosing exits that are familiar to them, exits that are less occupied, exits that are nearer to them and exits to which visibility is less affected by fire smoke. The marginal role of these competing factors on their decisions is quantified in a discrete choice model. Post-experiment questionnaires also determine factors such as their perceived realism and emotion evoked by the VR evacuation experience. Results indicate that none of the investigated factors dominated the others in terms of their influence on exit choices. The participants exhibited patterns of multi-attribute conjoint decision-making, consistent with the recent findings in the literature. While lack of familiarity and the presence of smoke both negatively affected the desirability of an exit to evacuees, neither solely determined exit choice. It was also observed that prioritisation of the said factors by participants changed during the repeated scenarios when compared to the first scenario that they experienced. Results have implications for both fire safety designs and future VR evacuation experiment designs. These empirical models can also be employed as input in computer simulations of building evacuation.

Ruggiero Lovreglio, Vicente Gonzalez, Zhenan Feng et al.

Enhancing evacuee safety is a key factor in reducing the number of injuries and deaths that result from earthquakes. One way this can be achieved is by training occupants. Virtual Reality (VR) and Serious Games (SGs), represent novel techniques that may overcome the limitations of traditional training approaches. VR and SGs have been examined in the fire emergency context, however, their application to earthquake preparedness has not yet been extensively examined. We provide a theoretical discussion of the advantages and limitations of using VR SGs to investigate how building occupants behave during earthquake evacuations and to train building occupants to cope with such emergencies. We explore key design components for developing a VR SG framework: (a) what features constitute an earthquake event, (b) which building types can be selected and represented within the VR environment, (c) how damage to the building can be determined and represented, (d) how non-player characters (NPC) can be designed, and (e) what level of interaction there can be between NPC and the human participants. We illustrate the above by presenting the Auckland City Hospital, New Zealand as a case study, and propose a possible VR SG training tool to enhance earthquake preparedness in public buildings.

Lucia Ballerini, Ruggiero Lovreglio, Maria del C. Valdes-Hernandez et al.

Perivascular Spaces (PVS) are a recently recognised feature of Small Vessel Disease (SVD), also indicating neuroinflammation, and are an important part of the brain's circulation and glymphatic drainage system. Quantitative analysis of PVS on Magnetic Resonance Images (MRI) is important for understanding their relationship with neurological diseases. In this work, we propose a segmentation technique based on the 3D Frangi filtering for extraction of PVS from MRI. Based on prior knowledge from neuroradiological ratings of PVS, we used ordered logit models to optimise Frangi filter parameters in response to the variability in the scanner's parameters and study protocols. We optimized and validated our proposed models on two independent cohorts, a dementia sample (N=20) and patients who previously had mild to moderate stroke (N=48). Results demonstrate the robustness and generalisability of our segmentation method. Segmentation-based PVS burden estimates correlated with neuroradiological assessments (Spearman's $ρ$ = 0.74, p $<$ 0.001), suggesting the great potential of our proposed method