Soyoung Ahn

Wissam Kontar, Soyoung Ahn

This paper proposes a methodology to estimate uncertainty in automated vehicle (AV) dynamics in real time via Bayesian inference. Based on the estimated uncertainty, the method aims to continuously monitor the car-following (CF) performance of the AV to support strategic actions to maintain a desired performance. Our methodology consists of three sequential components: (i) the Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics (SGLD) is adopted to estimate parameter uncertainty relative to vehicular dynamics in real time, (ii) dynamic monitoring of car-following stability (local and string-wise), and (iii) strategic actions for control adjustment if anomaly is detected. The proposed methodology provides means to gauge AV car-following performance in real time and preserve desired performance against real time uncertainty that are unaccounted for in the vehicle control algorithm.

Wissam Kontar, Xinzhi Zhong, Soyoung Ahn

This paper describes a framework for learning Automated Vehicles (AVs) driver models via knowledge sharing between vehicles and personalization. The innate variability in the transportation system makes it exceptionally challenging to expose AVs to all possible driving scenarios during empirical experimentation or testing. Consequently, AVs could be blind to certain encounters that are deemed detrimental to their safe and efficient operation. It is then critical to share knowledge across AVs that increase exposure to driving scenarios occurring in the real world. This paper explores a method to collaboratively train a driver model by sharing knowledge and borrowing strength across vehicles while retaining a personalized model tailored to the vehicle's unique conditions and properties. Our model brings a federated learning approach to collaborate between multiple vehicles while circumventing the need to share raw data between them. We showcase our method's performance in experimental simulations. Such an approach to learning finds several applications across transportation engineering including intelligent transportation systems, traffic management, and vehicle-to-vehicle communication. Code and sample dataset are made available at the project page https://github.com/wissamkontar.

Jiwan Jiang, Yang Zhou, Xin Wang et al.

Car following (CF) models are fundamental to describing traffic dynamics. However, the CF behavior of human drivers is highly stochastic and nonlinear. As a result, identifying the best CF model has been challenging and controversial despite decades of research. Introduction of automated vehicles has further complicated this matter as their CF controllers remain proprietary, though their behavior appears different than human drivers. This paper develops a stochastic learning approach to integrate multiple CF models, rather than relying on a single model. The framework is based on approximate Bayesian computation that probabilistically concatenates a pool of CF models based on their relative likelihood of describing observed behavior. The approach, while data-driven, retains physical tractability and interpretability. Evaluation results using two datasets show that the proposed approach can better reproduce vehicle trajectories for both human driven and automated vehicles than any single CF model considered.

Rei Tamaru, Yang Cheng, Steven Parker et al.

Truck parking on freight corridors faces the major challenge of insufficient parking spaces. This is exacerbated by the Hour-of-Service (HOS) regulations, which often result in unauthorized parking practices, causing safety concerns. It has been shown that providing accurate parking usage prediction can be a cost-effective solution to reduce unsafe parking practices. In light of this, existing studies have developed various methods to predict the usage of a truck parking site and have demonstrated satisfactory accuracy. However, these studies focused on a single parking site, and few approaches have been proposed to predict the usage of multiple truck parking sites considering spatio-temporal dependencies, due to the lack of data. This paper aims to fill this gap and presents the Regional Temporal Graph Convolutional Network (RegT-GCN) to predict parking usage across the entire state to provide more comprehensive truck parking information. The framework leverages the topological structures of truck parking site locations and historical parking data to predict the occupancy rate considering spatio-temporal dependencies across a state. To achieve this, we introduce a Regional Decomposition approach, which effectively captures the geographical characteristics of the truck parking locations and their spatial correlations. Evaluation results demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms other baseline models, showing the effectiveness of our regional decomposition. The code is available at https://github.com/raynbowy23/RegT-GCN.

Jiwan Jiang, Soyoung Ahn

This study develops a dynamic fundamental diagram (FD) framework tailored to mixed traffic environments comprising automated vehicles (AVs) and human-driven vehicles (HDVs). Describing function analysis is employed to derive approximate linear transfer functions for nonlinear HDV car-following models. A sequence-based stochastic dynamic FD is then formulated for mixed platoons, enabling the evaluation of hysteresis in the evolution of flow-density relations across different vehicle sequencing scenarios and AV penetration levels. Monte Carlo simulation results reveal that (i) differences in AV-HDV sequencing significantly alter the size of traffic hysteresis loops; and (ii) higher AV shares generally dampen hysteresis magnitude and variability, yet the net impact depends on how AVs are distributed within the platoon. The results suggest that traffic hysteresis in mixed environments is governed not only by the composition of AVs and HDVs, but also by how their interactions unfold through sequencing.

Qichao Liu, Heye Huang, Shiyue Zhao et al.

Ensuring the safety of autonomous vehicles (AVs) in long-tail scenarios remains a critical challenge, particularly under high uncertainty and complex multi-agent interactions. To address this, we propose RiskNet, an interaction-aware risk forecasting framework, which integrates deterministic risk modeling with probabilistic behavior prediction for comprehensive risk assessment. At its core, RiskNet employs a field-theoretic model that captures interactions among ego vehicle, surrounding agents, and infrastructure via interaction fields and force. This model supports multidimensional risk evaluation across diverse scenarios (highways, intersections, and roundabouts), and shows robustness under high-risk and long-tail settings. To capture the behavioral uncertainty, we incorporate a graph neural network (GNN)-based trajectory prediction module, which learns multi-modal future motion distributions. Coupled with the deterministic risk field, it enables dynamic, probabilistic risk inference across time, enabling proactive safety assessment under uncertainty. Evaluations on the highD, inD, and rounD datasets, spanning lane changes, turns, and complex merges, demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms traditional approaches (e.g., TTC, THW, RSS, NC Field) in terms of accuracy, responsiveness, and directional sensitivity, while maintaining strong generalization across scenarios. This framework supports real-time, scenario-adaptive risk forecasting and demonstrates strong generalization across uncertain driving environments. It offers a unified foundation for safety-critical decision-making in long-tail scenarios.

Nachuan Li, Riley Fischer, Wissam Kontar et al.

Vehicles on highway on-ramps are one of the leading contributors to congestion. In this paper, we propose a prediction framework that predicts the longitudinal trajectories and lane changes (LCs) of vehicles on highway on-ramps and tapers. Specifically, our framework adopts a combination of prediction models that inputs a 4 seconds duration of a trajectory to output a forecast of the longitudinal trajectories and LCs up to 15 seconds ahead. Training and Validation based on next generation simulation (NGSIM) data show that the prediction power of the developed model and its accuracy outperforms a traditional long-short term memory (LSTM) model. Ultimately, the work presented here can alleviate the congestion experienced on on-ramps, improve safety, and guide effective traffic control strategies.