Enhancing Financial Market Predictions: Causality-Driven Feature SelectionWenhao Liang, Zhengyang Li, Weitong Chen
This paper introduces the FinSen dataset that revolutionizes financial market analysis by integrating economic and financial news articles from 197 countries with stock market data. The dataset's extensive coverage spans 15 years from 2007 to 2023 with temporal information, offering a rich, global perspective with 160,000 records on financial market news. Our study leverages causally validated sentiment scores and LSTM models to enhance market forecast accuracy and reliability. Utilizing the FinSen dataset, we introduce an innovative Focal Calibration Loss, reducing Expected Calibration Error (ECE) to 3.34 percent with the DAN 3 model. This not only improves prediction accuracy but also aligns probabilistic forecasts closely with real outcomes, crucial for the financial sector where predicted probability is paramount. Our approach demonstrates the effectiveness of combining sentiment analysis with precise calibration techniques for trustworthy financial forecasting where the cost of misinterpretation can be high. Finsen Data can be found at [this github URL](https://github.com/EagleAdelaide/FinSen_Dataset.git).
5.9SENov 4, 2025
EvoDev: An Iterative Feature-Driven Framework for End-to-End Software Development with LLM-based AgentsJunwei Liu, Chen Xu, Chong Wang et al.
Recent advances in large language model agents offer the promise of automating end-to-end software development from natural language requirements. However, existing approaches largely adopt linear, waterfall-style pipelines, which oversimplify the iterative nature of real-world development and struggle with complex, large-scale projects. To address these limitations, we propose EvoDev, an iterative software development framework inspired by feature-driven development. EvoDev decomposes user requirements into a set of user-valued features and constructs a Feature Map, a directed acyclic graph that explicitly models dependencies between features. Each node in the feature map maintains multi-level information, including business logic, design, and code, which is propagated along dependencies to provide context for subsequent development iterations. We evaluate EvoDev on challenging Android development tasks and show that it outperforms the best-performing baseline, Claude Code, by a substantial margin of 56.8%, while improving single-agent performance by 16.0%-76.6% across different base LLMs, highlighting the importance of dependency modeling, context propagation, and workflow-aware agent design for complex software projects. Our work summarizes practical insights for designing iterative, LLM-driven development frameworks and informs future training of base LLMs to better support iterative software development.
2.7CLNov 10, 2025Code
Large language models in materials science and the need for open-source approachesFengxu Yang, Weitong Chen, Jack D. Evans
Large language models (LLMs) are rapidly transforming materials science. This review examines recent LLM applications across the materials discovery pipeline, focusing on three key areas: mining scientific literature , predictive modelling, and multi-agent experimental systems. We highlight how LLMs extract valuable information such as synthesis conditions from text, learn structure-property relationships, and can coordinate agentic systems integrating computational tools and laboratory automation. While progress has been largely dependent on closed-source commercial models, our benchmark results demonstrate that open-source alternatives can match performance while offering greater transparency, reproducibility, cost-effectiveness, and data privacy. As open-source models continue to improve, we advocate their broader adoption to build accessible, flexible, and community-driven AI platforms for scientific discovery.
Irregularity-Informed Time Series Analysis: Adaptive Modelling of Spatial and Temporal DynamicsLiangwei Nathan Zheng, Zhengyang Li, Chang George Dong et al.
Irregular Time Series Data (IRTS) has shown increasing prevalence in real-world applications. We observed that IRTS can be divided into two specialized types: Natural Irregular Time Series (NIRTS) and Accidental Irregular Time Series (AIRTS). Various existing methods either ignore the impacts of irregular patterns or statically learn the irregular dynamics of NIRTS and AIRTS data and suffer from limited data availability due to the sparsity of IRTS. We proposed a novel transformer-based framework for general irregular time series data that treats IRTS from four views: Locality, Time, Spatio and Irregularity to motivate the data usage to the highest potential. Moreover, we design a sophisticated irregularity-gate mechanism to adaptively select task-relevant information from irregularity, which improves the generalization ability to various IRTS data. We implement extensive experiments to demonstrate the resistance of our work to three highly missing ratio datasets (88.4\%, 94.9\%, 60\% missing value) and investigate the significance of the irregularity information for both NIRTS and AIRTS by additional ablation study. We release our implementation in https://github.com/IcurasLW/MTSFormer-Irregular_Time_Series.git
Devil in the Tail: A Multi-Modal Framework for Drug-Drug Interaction Prediction in Long Tail DistinctionLiangwei Nathan Zheng, Chang George Dong, Wei Emma Zhang et al.
Drug-drug interaction (DDI) identification is a crucial aspect of pharmacology research. There are many DDI types (hundreds), and they are not evenly distributed with equal chance to occur. Some of the rarely occurred DDI types are often high risk and could be life-critical if overlooked, exemplifying the long-tailed distribution problem. Existing models falter against this distribution challenge and overlook the multi-faceted nature of drugs in DDI prediction. In this paper, a novel multi-modal deep learning-based framework, namely TFDM, is introduced to leverage multiple properties of a drug to achieve DDI classification. The proposed framework fuses multimodal features of drugs, including graph-based, molecular structure, Target and Enzyme, for DDI identification. To tackle the challenge posed by the distribution skewness across categories, a novel loss function called Tailed Focal Loss is introduced, aimed at further enhancing the model performance and address gradient vanishing problem of focal loss in extremely long-tailed dataset. Intensive experiments over 4 challenging long-tailed dataset demonstrate that the TFMD outperforms the most recent SOTA methods in long-tailed DDI classification tasks. The source code is released to reproduce our experiment results: https://github.com/IcurasLW/TFMD_Longtailed_DDI.git
Calibration Attention: Instance-wise Temperature Scaling for Vision TransformersWenhao Liang, Wei Emma Zhang, Lin Yue et al.
Probability calibration is critical when Vision Transformers are deployed in risk-sensitive applications. The standard fix, post-hoc temperature scaling, uses a single global scalar and requires a held-out validation set. We introduce Calibration Attention (CalAttn), a drop-in module that learns an adaptive, per-instance temperature directly from the ViT's CLS token. Across CIFAR-10/100, MNIST, Tiny-ImageNet, and ImageNet-1K, CalAttn reduces calibration error by up to 4x on ViT-224, DeiT, and Swin, while adding under 0.1 percent additional parameters. The learned temperatures cluster tightly around 1.0, in contrast to the large global values used by standard temperature scaling. CalAttn is simple, efficient, and architecture-agnostic, and yields more trustworthy probabilities without sacrificing accuracy. Code: [https://github.com/EagleAdelaide/CalibrationAttention-CalAttn-](https://github.com/EagleAdelaide/CalibrationAttention-CalAttn-)
MMiC: Mitigating Modality Incompleteness in Clustered Federated LearningLishan Yang, Wei Emma Zhang, Quan Z. Sheng et al.
In the era of big data, data mining has become indispensable for uncovering hidden patterns and insights from vast and complex datasets. The integration of multimodal data sources further enhances its potential. Multimodal Federated Learning (MFL) is a distributed approach that enhances the efficiency and quality of multimodal learning, ensuring collaborative work and privacy protection. However, missing modalities pose a significant challenge in MFL, often due to data quality issues or privacy policies across the clients. In this work, we present MMiC, a framework for Mitigating Modality incompleteness in MFL within the Clusters. MMiC replaces partial parameters within client models inside clusters to mitigate the impact of missing modalities. Furthermore, it leverages the Banzhaf Power Index to optimize client selection under these conditions. Finally, MMiC employs an innovative approach to dynamically control global aggregation by utilizing Markovitz Portfolio Optimization. Extensive experiments demonstrate that MMiC consistently outperforms existing federated learning architectures in both global and personalized performance on multimodal datasets with missing modalities, confirming the effectiveness of our proposed solution. Our code is available at https://github.com/gotobcn8/MMiC.
2.6LGAug 21, 2024
Correlation Analysis of Adversarial Attack in Time Series ClassificationZhengyang Li, Wenhao Liang, Chang Dong et al.
This study investigates the vulnerability of time series classification models to adversarial attacks, with a focus on how these models process local versus global information under such conditions. By leveraging the Normalized Auto Correlation Function (NACF), an exploration into the inclination of neural networks is conducted. It is demonstrated that regularization techniques, particularly those employing Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) methods and targeting frequency components of perturbations, markedly enhance the effectiveness of attacks. Meanwhile, the defense strategies, like noise introduction and Gaussian filtering, are shown to significantly lower the Attack Success Rate (ASR), with approaches based on noise introducing notably effective in countering high-frequency distortions. Furthermore, models designed to prioritize global information are revealed to possess greater resistance to adversarial manipulations. These results underline the importance of designing attack and defense mechanisms, informed by frequency domain analysis, as a means to considerably reinforce the resilience of neural network models against adversarial threats.
Label-Agnostic Forgetting: A Supervision-Free Unlearning in Deep ModelsShaofei Shen, Chenhao Zhang, Yawen Zhao et al.
Machine unlearning aims to remove information derived from forgotten data while preserving that of the remaining dataset in a well-trained model. With the increasing emphasis on data privacy, several approaches to machine unlearning have emerged. However, these methods typically rely on complete supervision throughout the unlearning process. Unfortunately, obtaining such supervision, whether for the forgetting or remaining data, can be impractical due to the substantial cost associated with annotating real-world datasets. This challenge prompts us to propose a supervision-free unlearning approach that operates without the need for labels during the unlearning process. Specifically, we introduce a variational approach to approximate the distribution of representations for the remaining data. Leveraging this approximation, we adapt the original model to eliminate information from the forgotten data at the representation level. To further address the issue of lacking supervision information, which hinders alignment with ground truth, we introduce a contrastive loss to facilitate the matching of representations between the remaining data and those of the original model, thus preserving predictive performance. Experimental results across various unlearning tasks demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method, Label-Agnostic Forgetting (LAF) without using any labels, which achieves comparable performance to state-of-the-art methods that rely on full supervision information. Furthermore, our approach excels in semi-supervised scenarios, leveraging limited supervision information to outperform fully supervised baselines. This work not only showcases the viability of supervision-free unlearning in deep models but also opens up a new possibility for future research in unlearning at the representation level.
CaMU: Disentangling Causal Effects in Deep Model UnlearningShaofei Shen, Chenhao Zhang, Alina Bialkowski et al.
Machine unlearning requires removing the information of forgetting data while keeping the necessary information of remaining data. Despite recent advancements in this area, existing methodologies mainly focus on the effect of removing forgetting data without considering the negative impact this can have on the information of the remaining data, resulting in significant performance degradation after data removal. Although some methods try to repair the performance of remaining data after removal, the forgotten information can also return after repair. Such an issue is due to the intricate intertwining of the forgetting and remaining data. Without adequately differentiating the influence of these two kinds of data on the model, existing algorithms take the risk of either inadequate removal of the forgetting data or unnecessary loss of valuable information from the remaining data. To address this shortcoming, the present study undertakes a causal analysis of the unlearning and introduces a novel framework termed Causal Machine Unlearning (CaMU). This framework adds intervention on the information of remaining data to disentangle the causal effects between forgetting data and remaining data. Then CaMU eliminates the causal impact associated with forgetting data while concurrently preserving the causal relevance of the remaining data. Comprehensive empirical results on various datasets and models suggest that CaMU enhances performance on the remaining data and effectively minimizes the influences of forgetting data. Notably, this work is the first to interpret deep model unlearning tasks from a new perspective of causality and provide a solution based on causal analysis, which opens up new possibilities for future research in deep model unlearning.
11.5LGOct 16, 2024
Understanding Why Large Language Models Can Be Ineffective in Time Series Analysis: The Impact of Modality AlignmentLiangwei Nathan Zheng, Chang George Dong, Wei Emma Zhang et al.
Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive performance in time series analysis and seems to understand the time temporal relationship well than traditional transformer-based approaches. However, since LLMs are not designed for time series tasks, simpler models like linear regressions can often achieve comparable performance with far less complexity. In this study, we perform extensive experiments to assess the effectiveness of applying LLMs to key time series tasks, including forecasting, classification, imputation, and anomaly detection. We compare the performance of LLMs against simpler baseline models, such as single layer linear models and randomly initialized LLMs. Our results reveal that LLMs offer minimal advantages for these core time series tasks and may even distort the temporal structure of the data. In contrast, simpler models consistently outperform LLMs while requiring far fewer parameters. Furthermore, we analyze existing reprogramming techniques and show, through data manifold analysis, that these methods fail to effectively align time series data with language and display "pseudo-alignment" behavior in embedding space. Our findings suggest that the performance of LLM based methods in time series tasks arises from the intrinsic characteristics and structure of time series data, rather than any meaningful alignment with the language model architecture.
Free-Knots Kolmogorov-Arnold Network: On the Analysis of Spline Knots and Advancing StabilityLiangwewi Nathan Zheng, Wei Emma Zhang, Lin Yue et al.
Kolmogorov-Arnold Neural Networks (KANs) have gained significant attention in the machine learning community. However, their implementation often suffers from poor training stability and heavy trainable parameter. Furthermore, there is limited understanding of the behavior of the learned activation functions derived from B-splines. In this work, we analyze the behavior of KANs through the lens of spline knots and derive the lower and upper bound for the number of knots in B-spline-based KANs. To address existing limitations, we propose a novel Free Knots KAN that enhances the performance of the original KAN while reducing the number of trainable parameters to match the trainable parameter scale of standard Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLPs). Additionally, we introduce new a training strategy to ensure $C^2$ continuity of the learnable spline, resulting in smoother activation compared to the original KAN and improve the training stability by range expansion. The proposed method is comprehensively evaluated on 8 datasets spanning various domains, including image, text, time series, multimodal, and function approximation tasks. The promising results demonstrates the feasibility of KAN-based network and the effectiveness of proposed method.
10.4CRFeb 2, 2025
TrojanTime: Backdoor Attacks on Time Series ClassificationChang Dong, Zechao Sun, Guangdong Bai et al.
Time Series Classification (TSC) is highly vulnerable to backdoor attacks, posing significant security threats. Existing methods primarily focus on data poisoning during the training phase, designing sophisticated triggers to improve stealthiness and attack success rate (ASR). However, in practical scenarios, attackers often face restrictions in accessing training data. Moreover, it is a challenge for the model to maintain generalization ability on clean test data while remaining vulnerable to poisoned inputs when data is inaccessible. To address these challenges, we propose TrojanTime, a novel two-step training algorithm. In the first stage, we generate a pseudo-dataset using an external arbitrary dataset through target adversarial attacks. The clean model is then continually trained on this pseudo-dataset and its poisoned version. To ensure generalization ability, the second stage employs a carefully designed training strategy, combining logits alignment and batch norm freezing. We evaluate TrojanTime using five types of triggers across four TSC architectures in UCR benchmark datasets from diverse domains. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of TrojanTime in executing backdoor attacks while maintaining clean accuracy. Finally, to mitigate this threat, we propose a defensive unlearning strategy that effectively reduces the ASR while preserving clean accuracy.
7.1LGSep 1, 2025
FediLoRA: Heterogeneous LoRA for Federated Multimodal Fine-tuning under Missing ModalitiesLishan Yang, Wei Emma Zhang, Nam Kha Nguygen et al.
Foundation models have demonstrated remarkable performance across a wide range of tasks, yet their large parameter sizes pose challenges for practical deployment, especially in decentralized environments. Parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT), such as Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA), reduces local computing and memory overhead, making it attractive for federated learning. However, existing federated LoRA methods typically assume uniform rank configurations and unimodal inputs, overlooking two key real-world challenges: (1) heterogeneous client resources have different LoRA ranks, and (2) multimodal data settings with potentially missing modalities. In this work, we propose FediLoRA, a simple yet effective framework for federated multimodal fine-tuning under heterogeneous LoRA ranks and missing modalities. FediLoRA introduces a dimension-wise aggregation strategy that reweights LoRA updates without information dilution during aggregation. It also includes a lightweight layer-wise model editing method that selectively incorporates global parameters to repair local components which improves both client and global model performances. Experimental results on three multimodal benchmark datasets demonstrate that FediLoRA achieves superior performance over competitive baselines in both global and personalized settings, particularly in the presence of modality incompleteness.
4.1LGJul 22, 2025
FedDPG: An Adaptive Yet Efficient Prompt-tuning Approach in Federated Learning SettingsAli Shakeri, Wei Emma Zhang, Amin Beheshti et al.
Pre-trained Language Models (PLMs) have demonstrated impressive performance in various NLP tasks. However, traditional fine-tuning methods for leveraging PLMs for downstream tasks entail significant computational overhead. Prompt-tuning has emerged as an efficient alternative that involves prepending a limited number of parameters to the input sequence and only updating them while the PLM's parameters are frozen. However, this technique's prompts remain fixed for all inputs, reducing the model's flexibility. The Federated Learning (FL) technique has gained attention in recent years to address the growing concerns around data privacy. However, challenges such as communication and computation limitations of clients still need to be addressed. To mitigate these challenges, this paper introduces the Federated Dynamic Prompt Generator (FedDPG), which incorporates a dynamic prompt generator network to generate context-aware prompts based on the given input, ensuring flexibility and adaptability while prioritising data privacy in federated learning settings. Our experiments on three NLP benchmark datasets showcase that FedDPG outperforms the state-of-the-art parameter-efficient fine-tuning methods in terms of global model performance, and has significantly reduced the calculation time and the number of parameters to be sent through the FL network.
4.1LGJul 21, 2025
Machine Unlearning for Streaming ForgettingShaofei Shen, Chenhao Zhang, Yawen Zhao et al.
Machine unlearning aims to remove knowledge of the specific training data in a well-trained model. Currently, machine unlearning methods typically handle all forgetting data in a single batch, removing the corresponding knowledge all at once upon request. However, in practical scenarios, requests for data removal often arise in a streaming manner rather than in a single batch, leading to reduced efficiency and effectiveness in existing methods. Such challenges of streaming forgetting have not been the focus of much research. In this paper, to address the challenges of performance maintenance, efficiency, and data access brought about by streaming unlearning requests, we introduce a streaming unlearning paradigm, formalizing the unlearning as a distribution shift problem. We then estimate the altered distribution and propose a novel streaming unlearning algorithm to achieve efficient streaming forgetting without requiring access to the original training data. Theoretical analyses confirm an $O(\sqrt{T} + V_T)$ error bound on the streaming unlearning regret, where $V_T$ represents the cumulative total variation in the optimal solution over $T$ learning rounds. This theoretical guarantee is achieved under mild conditions without the strong restriction of convex loss function. Experiments across various models and datasets validate the performance of our proposed method.
30.8HCAug 22, 2017
Cascade and Parallel Convolutional Recurrent Neural Networks on EEG-based Intention Recognition for Brain Computer InterfaceDalin Zhang, Lina Yao, Xiang Zhang et al.
Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) is a system empowering humans to communicate with or control the outside world with exclusively brain intentions. Electroencephalography (EEG) based BCIs are promising solutions due to their convenient and portable instruments. Motor imagery EEG (MI-EEG) is a kind of most widely focused EEG signals, which reveals a subjects movement intentions without actual actions. Despite the extensive research of MI-EEG in recent years, it is still challenging to interpret EEG signals effectively due to the massive noises in EEG signals (e.g., low signal noise ratio and incomplete EEG signals), and difficulties in capturing the inconspicuous relationships between EEG signals and certain brain activities. Most existing works either only consider EEG as chain-like sequences neglecting complex dependencies between adjacent signals or performing simple temporal averaging over EEG sequences. In this paper, we introduce both cascade and parallel convolutional recurrent neural network models for precisely identifying human intended movements by effectively learning compositional spatio-temporal representations of raw EEG streams. The proposed models grasp the spatial correlations between physically neighboring EEG signals by converting the chain like EEG sequences into a 2D mesh like hierarchy. An LSTM based recurrent network is able to extract the subtle temporal dependencies of EEG data streams. Extensive experiments on a large-scale MI-EEG dataset (108 subjects, 3,145,160 EEG records) have demonstrated that both models achieve high accuracy near 98.3% and outperform a set of baseline methods and most recent deep learning based EEG recognition models, yielding a significant accuracy increase of 18% in the cross-subject validation scenario.