Patrick Filippi

Penghui Wen, Zexin Hu, Sen Zhang et al.

Precipitation nowcasting remains challenging due to the highly localized, rapidly evolving, and heterogeneous nature of atmospheric dynamics. Although recent methods increasingly adopt attention-based architectures in both unimodal and multimodal settings, they mainly emphasize stronger representation learning and prediction capacity, while paying less attention to the stability of attention responses across samples. In this work, we show that cross-sample instability of attention-response energy is an important and previously underexplored source of forecasting unreliability. Empirically, inaccurate forecasts are associated with larger attention-response energy variance across heads and layers. Theoretically, we show that cross-sample variability can propagate through self-attention, and enlarge a lower bound on prediction error. Based on this insight, we propose HARECast, a Head-wise Attention Response Energy-regulated framework for precipitation nowcasting. HARECast explicitly models head-wise attention-response energy and stabilizes it through a group-wise regularization objective that reduces cross-sample fluctuations. The proposed formulation is generic and applicable to both unimodal and multimodal nowcasting architectures. We instantiate HARECast in a standard forecasting pipeline with reconstruction branches and a diffusion-based predictor, and evaluate it on commonly used benchmarks--SEVIR and MeteoNet. Experimental results demonstrate that HARECast achieves state-of-the-art performance.

Penghui Wen, Yu Luo, Lintao Wang et al.

Existing precipitation nowcasting methods typically adopt an autoregressive formulation, where future states are predicted from previous outputs. However, such an approach accumulates errors over long rollouts, causing forecasts to drift away from physically plausible evolution trajectories. Although various studies have attempted to alleviate this problem by improving step-wise prediction accuracy, they largely neglect the global temporal evolution of meteorological systems and lack mechanisms to actively correct drift during rollouts. To address this issue, we propose McCast, a memory-guided latent drift correction method for precipitation nowcasting. Rather than treating memory as an unordered dictionary of latent states for passive conditioning, McCast leverages temporally organized memory to actively correct autoregressive latent evolution. Specifically, McCast introduces a Drift-Corrective Memory Bank (DCBank) that explicitly estimates the temporally consistent drift corrections to calibrate the divergent trajectory. DCBank performs drift correction in two stages: a Corrective Latent Extractor first predicts an initial correction from the current prediction and a reference latent state, and a Correction-Aware Memory Retrieval module then refines the initial correction using temporally organized historical memory. By explicitly correcting latent evolution, instead of improving step-wise prediction accuracy only, McCast produces more temporally coherent and reliable long-horizon forecasts. Experiments on two widely used benchmarks, SEVIR and MeteoNet, show that McCast achieves state-of-the-art performance, particularly in challenging long-horizon forecasting scenarios.

J. Schmidinger, S. Vogel, V. Barkov et al.

Digital soil mapping (DSM) relies on a broad pool of statistical methods, yet determining the optimal method for a given context remains challenging and contentious. Benchmarking studies on multiple datasets are needed to reveal strengths and limitations of commonly used methods. Existing DSM studies usually rely on a single dataset with restricted access, leading to incomplete and potentially misleading conclusions. To address these issues, we introduce an open-access dataset collection called Precision Liming Soil Datasets (LimeSoDa). LimeSoDa consists of 31 field- and farm-scale datasets from various countries. Each dataset has three target soil properties: (1) soil organic matter or soil organic carbon, (2) clay content and (3) pH, alongside a set of features. Features are dataset-specific and were obtained by optical spectroscopy, proximal- and remote soil sensing. All datasets were aligned to a tabular format and are ready-to-use for modeling. We demonstrated the use of LimeSoDa for benchmarking by comparing the predictive performance of four learning algorithms across all datasets. This comparison included multiple linear regression (MLR), support vector regression (SVR), categorical boosting (CatBoost) and random forest (RF). The results showed that although no single algorithm was universally superior, certain algorithms performed better in specific contexts. MLR and SVR performed better on high-dimensional spectral datasets, likely due to better compatibility with principal components. In contrast, CatBoost and RF exhibited considerably better performances when applied to datasets with a moderate number (< 20) of features. These benchmarking results illustrate that the performance of a method is highly context-dependent. LimeSoDa therefore provides an important resource for improving the development and evaluation of statistical methods in DSM.

Penghui Wen, Mengwei He, Patrick Filippi et al.

Accurate short-term precipitation forecasting is critical for weather-sensitive decision-making in agriculture, transportation, and disaster response. Existing deep learning approaches often struggle to balance global structural consistency with local detail preservation, especially under complex meteorological conditions. We propose DuoCast, a dual-diffusion framework that decomposes precipitation forecasting into low- and high-frequency components modeled in orthogonal latent subspaces. We theoretically prove that this frequency decomposition reduces prediction error compared to conventional single branch U-Net diffusion models. In DuoCast, the low-frequency model captures large-scale trends via convolutional encoders conditioned on weather front dynamics, while the high-frequency model refines fine-scale variability using a self-attention-based architecture. Experiments on four benchmark radar datasets show that DuoCast consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, achieving superior accuracy in both spatial detail and temporal evolution.