Ángel F. García-Fernández

Ángel F. García-Fernández

This paper presents a multitarget tracking particle filter (PF) for general track-before-detect measurement models. The PF is presented in the random finite set framework and uses a labelled multi-Bernoulli approximation. We also present a label switching improvement algorithm based on Markov chain Monte Carlo that is expected to increase filter performance if targets get in close proximity for a sufficiently long time. The PF is tested in two challenging numerical examples.

Ángel F. García-Fernández, Yuxuan Xia, Lennart Svensson

This paper provides a comparative analysis between the adaptive birth model used in the labelled random finite set literature and the track initiation in the Poisson multi-Bernoulli mixture (PMBM) filter, with point-target models. The PMBM track initiation is obtained via Bayes' rule applied on the predicted PMBM density, and creates one Bernoulli component for each received measurement, representing that this measurement may be clutter or a detection from a new target. Adaptive birth mimics this procedure by creating a Bernoulli component for each measurement using a different rule to determine the probability of existence and a user-defined single-target density. This paper first provides an analysis of the differences that arise in track initiation based on isolated measurements. Then, it shows that adaptive birth underestimates the number of objects present in the surveillance area under common modelling assumptions. Finally, we provide numerical simulations to further illustrate the differences.

Ángel F. García-Fernández, Jimin Xiao

This paper proposes a multi-object tracking (MOT) algorithm for traffic monitoring using a drone equipped with optical and thermal cameras. Object detections on the images are obtained using a neural network for each type of camera. The cameras are modelled as direction-of-arrival (DOA) sensors. Each DOA detection follows a von-Mises Fisher distribution, whose mean direction is obtain by projecting a vehicle position on the ground to the camera. We then use the trajectory Poisson multi-Bernoulli mixture filter (TPMBM), which is a Bayesian MOT algorithm, to optimally estimate the set of vehicle trajectories. We have also developed a parameter estimation algorithm for the measurement model. We have tested the accuracy of the resulting TPMBM filter in synthetic and experimental data sets.

Jinhao Gu, Ángel F. García-Fernández, Robert E. Firth et al.

This paper proposes a metric to measure the dissimilarity between graphs that may have a different number of nodes. The proposed metric extends the generalised optimal subpattern assignment (GOSPA) metric, which is a metric for sets, to graphs. The proposed graph GOSPA metric includes costs associated with node attribute errors for properly assigned nodes, missed and false nodes and edge mismatches between graphs. The computation of this metric is based on finding the optimal assignments between nodes in the two graphs, with the possibility of leaving some of the nodes unassigned. We also propose a lower bound for the metric, which is also a metric for graphs and is computable in polynomial time using linear programming. The metric is first derived for undirected unweighted graphs and it is then extended to directed and weighted graphs. The properties of the metric are demonstrated via simulated and empirical datasets.

Ángel F. García-Fernández, Yuxuan Xia

This paper presents a new derivation of the variational Poisson multi-Bernoulli (V-PMB) filter for multi-target estimation proposed in [#Williams15]. The proposed derivation is based on considering an augmented space that includes the set of target states with their track indices and the global hypothesis variable. Then, we show that the V-PMB projection performs a coordinate descent Kullback-Leibler divergence (KLD) minimisation on this augmented space to fit the best possible PMB density to the Poisson multi-Bernoulli mixture (PMBM) posterior. We also show that this V-PMB projection keeps the probability hypothesis density of the posterior. The paper also includes a comparison with the PMBM filter and other PMB filter variants, including a track-oriented Murty-based implementation, a track-oriented loopy belief propagation implementation and a global nearest neighbour implementation, showing the benefits of the V-PMB filter compared to the other PMB filters when targets get in close proximity and then separate.

Jan Krejčí, Oliver Kost, Ondřej Straka et al.

Multi-object tracking algorithms are deployed in various applications, each with different performance requirements. For example, track switches pose significant challenges for offline scene understanding, as they hinder the accuracy of data interpretation. Conversely, in online surveillance applications, their impact is often minimal. This disparity underscores the need for application-specific performance evaluations that are both simple and mathematically sound. The trajectory generalized optimal sub-pattern assignment (TGOSPA) metric offers a principled approach to evaluate multi-object tracking performance. It accounts for localization errors, the number of missed and false objects, and the number of track switches, providing a comprehensive assessment framework. This paper illustrates the effective use of the TGOSPA metric in computer vision tasks, addressing challenges posed by the need for application-specific scoring methodologies. By exploring the TGOSPA parameter selection, we enable users to compare, comprehend, and optimize the performance of algorithms tailored for specific tasks, such as target tracking and training of detector or re-ID modules.

Fengchen Gu, Zhengyong Jiang, Ángel F. García-Fernández et al.

Portfolio management remains a crucial challenge in finance, with traditional methods often falling short in complex and volatile market environments. While deep reinforcement approaches have shown promise, they still face limitations in dynamic risk management, exploitation of temporal markets, and incorporation of complex trading strategies such as short-selling. These limitations can lead to suboptimal portfolio performance, increased vulnerability to market volatility, and missed opportunities in capturing potential returns from diverse market conditions. This paper introduces a Deep Reinforcement Learning Portfolio Management Framework with Time-Awareness and Short-Selling (MTS), offering a robust and adaptive strategy for sustainable investment performance. This framework utilizes a novel encoder-attention mechanism to address the limitations by incorporating temporal market characteristics, a parallel strategy for automated short-selling based on market trends, and risk management through innovative Incremental Conditional Value at Risk, enhancing adaptability and performance. Experimental validation on five diverse datasets from 2019 to 2023 demonstrates MTS's superiority over traditional algorithms and advanced machine learning techniques. MTS consistently achieves higher cumulative returns, Sharpe, Omega, and Sortino ratios, underscoring its effectiveness in balancing risk and return while adapting to market dynamics. MTS demonstrates an average relative increase of 30.67% in cumulative returns and 29.33% in Sharpe ratio compared to the next best-performing strategies across various datasets.

Ángel F. García-Fernández, Simo Särkkä

This paper proposes multi-target filtering algorithms in which target dynamics are given in continuous time and measurements are obtained at discrete time instants. In particular, targets appear according to a Poisson point process (PPP) in time with a given Gaussian spatial distribution, targets move according to a general time-invariant linear stochastic differential equation, and the life span of each target is modelled with an exponential distribution. For this multi-target dynamic model, we derive the distribution of the set of new born targets and calculate closed-form expressions for the best fitting mean and covariance of each target at its time of birth by minimising the Kullback-Leibler divergence via moment matching. This yields a novel Gaussian continuous-discrete Poisson multi-Bernoulli mixture (PMBM) filter, and its approximations based on Poisson multi-Bernoulli and probability hypothesis density filtering. These continuous-discrete multi-target filters are also extended to target dynamics driven by nonlinear stochastic differential equations.

Hany Abdulsamad, Ángel F. García-Fernández, Simo Särkkä

We present a class of algorithms for state estimation in nonlinear, non-Gaussian state-space models. Our approach is based on a variational Lagrangian formulation that casts Bayesian inference as a sequence of entropic trust-region updates subject to dynamic constraints. This framework gives rise to a family of forward-backward algorithms, whose structure is determined by the chosen factorization of the variational posterior. By focusing on Gauss--Markov approximations, we derive recursive schemes with favorable computational complexity. For general nonlinear, non-Gaussian models we close the recursions using generalized statistical linear regression and Fourier--Hermite moment matching.

Ángel F. García-Fernández, Jinhao Gu, Lennart Svensson et al.

This paper introduces two quasi-metrics for performance assessment of multi-object tracking (MOT) algorithms. In particular, one quasi-metric is an extension of the generalised optimal subpattern assignment (GOSPA) metric and measures the discrepancy between sets of objects. The other quasi-metric is an extension of the trajectory GOSPA (T-GOSPA) metric and measures the discrepancy between sets of trajectories. Similar to the GOSPA-based metrics, these quasi-metrics include costs for localisation error for properly detected objects, the number of false objects and the number of missed objects. The T-GOSPA quasi-metric also includes a track switching cost. Differently from the GOSPA and T-GOSPA metrics, the proposed quasi-metrics have the flexibility of penalising missed and false objects with different costs, and the localisation costs are not required to be symmetric. These properties can be useful in MOT evaluation in certain applications. The performance of several Bayesian MOT algorithms is assessed with the T-GOSPA quasi-metric via simulations.

Ángel F. García-Fernández, Giorgio Battistelli

This paper presents the distributed Poisson multi-Bernoulli (PMB) filter based on the generalised covariance intersection (GCI) fusion rule for distributed multi-object filtering. Since the exact GCI fusion of two PMB densities is intractable, we derive a principled approximation. Specifically, we approximate the power of a PMB density as an unnormalised PMB density, which corresponds to an upper bound of the PMB density. Then, the GCI fusion rule corresponds to the normalised product of two unnormalised PMB densities. We show that the result is a Poisson multi-Bernoulli mixture (PMBM), which can be expressed in closed form. Future prediction and update steps in each filter preserve the PMBM form, which can be projected back to a PMB density before the next fusion step. Experimental results show the benefits of this approach compared to other distributed multi-object filters.

Jinhao Gu, Ángel F. García-Fernández, Robert E. Firth et al.

This paper proposes a family of graph metrics for measuring distances between graphs of different sizes. The proposed metric family defines a general form of the graph generalised optimal sub-pattern assignment (GOSPA) metric and is also proved to satisfy the metric properties. Similarly to the graph GOSPA metric, the proposed graph GOSPA metric family also penalises the node attribute costs for assigned nodes between the two graphs, and the number of unassigned nodes. However, the proposed family of metrics provides more general penalties for edge mismatches than the graph GOSPA metric. This paper also shows that the graph GOSPA metric family can be approximately computed using linear programming. Simulation experiments are performed to illustrate the characteristics of the proposed graph GOSPA metric family with different choices of hyperparameters. The benefits of the proposed graph GOSPA metric family for classification tasks are also shown on real-world datasets.

Marco Fontana, Ángel F. García-Fernández, Simon Maskell

This paper presents a Poisson multi-Bernoulli mixture (PMBM) filter for multi-target filtering based on sensor measurements that are sets of trajectories in the last two-time step window. The proposed filter, the trajectory measurement PMBM (TM-PMBM) filter, propagates a PMBM density on the set of target states. In prediction, the filter obtains the PMBM density on the set of trajectories over the last two time steps. This density is then updated with the set of trajectory measurements. After the update step, the PMBM posterior on the set of two-step trajectories is marginalised to obtain a PMBM density on the set of target states. The filter provides a closed-form solution for multi-target filtering based on sets of trajectory measurements, estimating the set of target states at the end of each time window. Additionally, the paper proposes computationally lighter alternatives to the TM-PMBM filter by deriving a Poisson multi-Bernoulli (PMB) density through Kullback-Leibler divergence minimisation in an augmented space with auxiliary variables. The performance of the proposed filters are evaluated in a simulation study.

Ángel F. García-Fernández, Abu Sajana Rahmathullah, Lennart Svensson

This paper proposes a metric for sets of trajectories to evaluate multi-object tracking algorithms that includes time-weighted costs for localisation errors of properly detected targets, for false targets, missed targets and track switches. The proposed metric extends the metric in [1] by including weights to the costs associated to different time steps. The time-weighted costs increase the flexibility of the metric [1] to fit more applications and user preferences. We first introduce a metric based on multi-dimensional assignments, and then its linear programming relaxation, which is computable in polynomial time and is also a metric. The metrics can also be extended to metrics on random finite sets of trajectories to evaluate and rank algorithms across different scenarios, each with a ground truth set of trajectories.

Ángel F. García-Fernández, Wei Yi

This paper derives the optimal Bayesian processing of an out-of-sequence (OOS) set of measurements in continuous-time for multiple target tracking. We consider a multi-target system modelled in continuous time that is discretised at the time steps when we receive the measurements, which are distributed according to the standard point target model. All information about this system at the sampled time steps is provided by the posterior density on the set of all trajectories. This density can be computed via the continuous-discrete trajectory Poisson multi-Bernoulli mixture (TPMBM) filter. When we receive an OOS measurement, the optimal Bayesian processing performs a retrodiction step that adds trajectory information at the OOS measurement time stamp followed by an update step. After the OOS measurement update, the posterior remains in TPMBM form. We also provide a computationally lighter alternative based on a trajectory Poisson multi-Bernoulli filter. The effectiveness of the two approaches to handle OOS measurements is evaluated via simulations.

Sakira Hassan, Simo Särkkä, Ángel F. García-Fernández

This paper presents algorithms for parallelization of inference in hidden Markov models (HMMs). In particular, we propose parallel backward-forward type of filtering and smoothing algorithm as well as parallel Viterbi-type maximum-a-posteriori (MAP) algorithm. We define associative elements and operators to pose these inference problems as parallel-prefix-sum computations in sum-product and max-product algorithms and parallelize them using parallel-scan algorithms. The advantage of the proposed algorithms is that they are computationally efficient in HMM inference problems with long time horizons. We empirically compare the performance of the proposed methods to classical methods on a highly parallel graphical processing unit (GPU).

Ángel F. García-Fernández, Jason L. Williams, Lennart Svensson et al.

This paper proposes a Poisson multi-Bernoulli mixture (PMBM) filter for coexisting point and extended targets, i.e., for scenarios where there may be simultaneous point and extended targets. The PMBM filter provides a recursion to compute the multi-target filtering posterior based on probabilistic information on data associations, and single-target predictions and updates. In this paper, we first derive the PMBM filter update for a generalised measurement model, which can include measurements originated from point and extended targets. Second, we propose a single-target space that accommodates both point and extended targets and derive the filtering recursion that propagates Gaussian densities for point targets and gamma Gaussian inverse Wishart densities for extended targets. As a computationally efficient approximation of the PMBM filter, we also develop a Poisson multi-Bernoulli (PMB) filter for coexisting point and extended targets. The resulting filters are analysed via numerical simulations.

Ángel F. García-Fernández, Lennart Svensson, Jason L. Williams et al.

This paper presents two trajectory Poisson multi-Bernoulli (TPMB) filters for multi-target tracking: one to estimate the set of alive trajectories at each time step and another to estimate the set of all trajectories, which includes alive and dead trajectories, at each time step. The filters are based on propagating a Poisson multi-Bernoulli (PMB) density on the corresponding set of trajectories through the filtering recursion. After the update step, the posterior is a PMB mixture (PMBM) so, in order to obtain a PMB density, a Kullback-Leibler divergence minimisation on an augmented space is performed. The developed filters are computationally lighter alternatives to the trajectory PMBM filters, which provide the closed-form recursion for sets of trajectories with Poisson birth model, and are shown to outperform previous multi-target tracking algorithms.

Karl Granström, Lennart Svensson, Yuxuan Xia et al.

The Poisson Multi-Bernoulli Mixture (PMBM) density is a conjugate multi-target density for the standard point target model with Poisson point process birth. This means that both the filtering and predicted densities for the set of targets are PMBM. In this paper, we first show that the PMBM density is also conjugate for sets of trajectories with the standard point target measurement model. Second, based on this theoretical foundation, we develop two trajectory PMBM filters that provide recursions to calculate the posterior density for the set of all trajectories that have ever been present in the surveillance area, and the posterior density of the set of trajectories present at the current time step in the surveillance area. These two filters therefore provide complete probabilistic information on the considered trajectories enabling optimal trajectory estimation. Third, we establish that the density of the set of trajectories in any time window, given the measurements in a possibly different time window, is also a PMBM. Finally, the trajectory PMBM filters are evaluated via simulations, and are shown to yield state-of-the-art performance compared to other multi-target tracking algorithms based on random finite sets and multiple hypothesis tracking.

Ángel F. García-Fernández, Yuxuan Xia, Karl Granström et al.

This paper presents the Gaussian implementation of the multi-Bernoulli mixture (MBM) filter. The MBM filter provides the filtering (multi-target) density for the standard dynamic and radar measurement models when the birth model is multi-Bernoulli or multi-Bernoulli mixture. Under linear/Gaussian models, the single target densities of the MBM mixture admit Gaussian closed-form expressions. Murty's algorithm is used to select the global hypotheses with highest weights. The MBM filter is compared with other algorithms in the literature via numerical simulations.

Ángel F. García-Fernández, Lennart Svensson

In this paper, we show the spooky effect at a distance that arises in optimal estimation of multiple targets with the optimal sub-pattern assignment (OSPA) metric. This effect refers to the fact that if we have several independent potential targets at distant locations, a change in the probability of existence of one of them can completely change the optimal estimation of the rest of the potential targets. As opposed to OSPA, the generalised OSPA (GOSPA) metric ($α=2$) penalises localisation errors for properly detected targets, false targets and missed targets. As a consequence, optimal GOSPA estimation aims to lower the number of false and missed targets, as well as the localisation error for properly detected targets, and avoids the spooky effect.

Ángel F. García-Fernández, Lennart Svensson

This paper presents the probability hypothesis density filter (PHD) and the cardinality PHD (CPHD) filter for sets of trajectories, which are referred to as the trajectory PHD (TPHD) and trajectory CPHD (TCPHD) filters. Contrary to the PHD/CPHD filters, the TPHD/TCPHD filters are able to produce trajectory estimates from first principles. The TPHD filter is derived by recursively obtaining the best Poisson multitrajectory density approximation to the posterior density over the alive trajectories by minimising the Kullback-Leibler divergence. The TCPHD is derived in the same way but propagating an independent identically distributed (IID) cluster multitrajectory density approximation. We also propose the Gaussian mixture implementations of the TPHD and TCPHD recursions, the Gaussian mixture TPHD (GMTPHD) and the Gaussian mixture TCPHD (GMTCPHD), and the L-scan computationally efficient implementations, which only update the density of the trajectory states of the last L time steps.

Ángel F. García-Fernández, Filip Tronarp, Simo Särkkä

This paper proposes a new algorithm for Gaussian process classification based on posterior linearisation (PL). In PL, a Gaussian approximation to the posterior density is obtained iteratively using the best possible linearisation of the conditional mean of the labels and accounting for the linearisation error. PL has some theoretical advantages over expectation propagation (EP): all calculated covariance matrices are positive definite and there is a local convergence theorem. In experimental data, PL has better performance than EP with the noisy threshold likelihood and the parallel implementation of the algorithms.

Abu Sajana Rahmathullah, Ángel F. García-Fernández, Lennart Svensson

This paper presents the generalized optimal sub-pattern assignment (GOSPA) metric on the space of finite sets of targets. Compared to the well-established optimal sub-pattern assignment (OSPA) metric, GOSPA is unnormalized as a function of the cardinality and it penalizes cardinality errors differently, which enables us to express it as an optimisation over assignments instead of permutations. An important consequence of this is that GOSPA allows us to penalize localization errors for detected targets and the errors due to missed and false targets, as indicated by traditional multiple target tracking (MTT) performance measures, in a sound manner. In addition, we extend the GOSPA metric to the space of random finite sets, which is important to evaluate MTT algorithms via simulations in a rigorous way.

Ángel F. García-Fernández, Jason L. Williams, Karl Granström et al.

We provide a derivation of the Poisson multi-Bernoulli mixture (PMBM) filter for multi-target tracking with the standard point target measurements without using probability generating functionals or functional derivatives. We also establish the connection with the δ-generalised labelled multi-Bernoulli (δ-GLMB) filter, showing that a δ-GLMB density represents a multi-Bernoulli mixture with labelled targets so it can be seen as a special case of PMBM. In addition, we propose an implementation for linear/Gaussian dynamic and measurement models and how to efficiently obtain typical estimators in the literature from the PMBM. The PMBM filter is shown to outperform other filters in the literature in a challenging scenario.

Ángel F. García-Fernández, Lennart Svensson, Mark R. Morelande

We propose a solution of the multiple target tracking (MTT) problem based on sets of trajectories and the random finite set framework. A full Bayesian approach to MTT should characterise the distribution of the trajectories given the measurements, as it contains all information about the trajectories. We attain this by considering multi-object density functions in which objects are trajectories. For the standard tracking models, we also describe a conjugate family of multitrajectory density functions.

Ángel F. García-Fernández, Lennart Svensson

This paper presents the probability hypothesis density (PHD) filter for sets of trajectories: the trajectory probability density (TPHD) filter. The TPHD filter is capable of estimating trajectories in a principled way without requiring to evaluate all measurement-to-target association hypotheses. The TPHD filter is based on recursively obtaining the best Poisson approximation to the multitrajectory filtering density in the sense of minimising the Kullback-Leibler divergence. We also propose a Gaussian mixture implementation of the TPHD recursion. Finally, we include simulation results to show the performance of the proposed algorithm.

Ángel F. García-Fernández, Abu Sajana Rahmathullah, Lennart Svensson

In this paper, we propose a metric on the space of finite sets of trajectories for assessing multi-target tracking algorithms in a mathematically sound way. The main use of the metric is to compare estimates of trajectories from different algorithms with the ground truth of trajectories. The proposed metric includes intuitive costs associated to localization error for properly detected targets, missed and false targets and track switches at each time step. The metric computation is based on solving a multi-dimensional assignment problem. We also propose a lower bound for the metric, which is also a metric for sets of trajectories and is computable in polynomial time using linear programming. We also extend the proposed metrics on sets of trajectories to random finite sets of trajectories.

Abu Sajana Rahmathullah, Ángel F. García-Fernández, Lennart Svensson

This paper presents the generalized optimal sub-pattern assignment (GOSPA) metric on the space of finite sets of targets. Compared to the well-established optimal sub-pattern assignment (OSPA) metric, GOSPA is unnormalized as a function of the cardinality and it penalizes cardinality errors differently, which enables us to express it as an optimisation over assignments instead of permutations. An important consequence of this is that GOSPA allows us to penalize localization errors for detected targets and the errors due to missed and false targets, as indicated by traditional multiple target tracking (MTT) performance measures, in a sound manner. In addition, we extend the GOSPA metric to the space of random finite sets, which is important to evaluate MTT algorithms via simulations in a rigorous way.

Ángel F. García-Fernández, Mark R. Morelande, Jesús Grajal

The evaluation of multiple target tracking algorithms with labelled sets can be done using the labelled optimal subpattern assignment (LOSPA) metric. In this paper, we provide the expression of the same metric for fixed and known number of targets when vector notation is used.

Branko Ristic, Jamie Sherrah, Ángel F. García-Fernández

The paper evaluates the error performance of three random finite set based multi-object trackers in the context of pedestrian video tracking. The evaluation is carried out using a publicly available video dataset of 4500 frames (town centre street) for which the ground truth is available. The input to all pedestrian tracking algorithms is an identical set of head and body detections, obtained using the Histogram of Oriented Gradients (HOG) detector. The tracking error is measured using the recently proposed OSPA metric for tracks, adopted as the only known mathematically rigorous metric for measuring the distance between two sets of tracks. A comparative analysis is presented under various conditions.