Thomas Scholten

Jannik Thuemmel, Matthias Karlbauer, Sebastian Otte et al.

Deep learning has gained immense popularity in the Earth sciences as it enables us to formulate purely data-driven models of complex Earth system processes. Deep learning-based weather prediction (DLWP) models have made significant progress in the last few years, achieving forecast skills comparable to established numerical weather prediction models with comparatively lesser computational costs. In order to train accurate, reliable, and tractable DLWP models with several millions of parameters, the model design needs to incorporate suitable inductive biases that encode structural assumptions about the data and the modelled processes. When chosen appropriately, these biases enable faster learning and better generalisation to unseen data. Although inductive biases play a crucial role in successful DLWP models, they are often not stated explicitly and their contribution to model performance remains unclear. Here, we review and analyse the inductive biases of state-of-the-art DLWP models with respect to five key design elements: data selection, learning objective, loss function, architecture, and optimisation method. We identify the most important inductive biases and highlight potential avenues towards more efficient and probabilistic DLWP models.

J. Schmidinger, S. Vogel, V. Barkov et al.

Digital soil mapping (DSM) relies on a broad pool of statistical methods, yet determining the optimal method for a given context remains challenging and contentious. Benchmarking studies on multiple datasets are needed to reveal strengths and limitations of commonly used methods. Existing DSM studies usually rely on a single dataset with restricted access, leading to incomplete and potentially misleading conclusions. To address these issues, we introduce an open-access dataset collection called Precision Liming Soil Datasets (LimeSoDa). LimeSoDa consists of 31 field- and farm-scale datasets from various countries. Each dataset has three target soil properties: (1) soil organic matter or soil organic carbon, (2) clay content and (3) pH, alongside a set of features. Features are dataset-specific and were obtained by optical spectroscopy, proximal- and remote soil sensing. All datasets were aligned to a tabular format and are ready-to-use for modeling. We demonstrated the use of LimeSoDa for benchmarking by comparing the predictive performance of four learning algorithms across all datasets. This comparison included multiple linear regression (MLR), support vector regression (SVR), categorical boosting (CatBoost) and random forest (RF). The results showed that although no single algorithm was universally superior, certain algorithms performed better in specific contexts. MLR and SVR performed better on high-dimensional spectral datasets, likely due to better compatibility with principal components. In contrast, CatBoost and RF exhibited considerably better performances when applied to datasets with a moderate number (< 20) of features. These benchmarking results illustrate that the performance of a method is highly context-dependent. LimeSoDa therefore provides an important resource for improving the development and evaluation of statistical methods in DSM.

Mathias Bellat, Jordy D. Orellana Figueroa, Jonathan S. Reeves et al.

Artificial intelligence and machine learning applications in archaeology have increased significantly in recent years, and these now span all subfields, geographical regions, and time periods. The prevalence and success of these applications have remained largely unexamined, as recent reviews on the use of machine learning in archaeology have only focused only on specific subfields of archaeology. Our review examined an exhaustive corpus of 135 articles published between 1997 and 2022. We observed a significant increase in the number of publications from 2019 onwards. Automatic structure detection and artefact classification were the most represented tasks in the articles reviewed, followed by taphonomy, and archaeological predictive modelling. From the review, clustering and unsupervised methods were underrepresented compared to supervised models. Artificial neural networks and ensemble learning account for two thirds of the total number of models used. However, if machine learning models are gaining in popularity they remain subject to misunderstanding. We observed, in some cases, poorly defined requirements and caveats of the machine learning methods used. Furthermore, the goals and the needs of machine learning applications for archaeological purposes are in some cases unclear or poorly expressed. To address this, we proposed a workflow guide for archaeologists to develop coherent and consistent methodologies adapted to their research questions, project scale and data. As in many other areas, machine learning is rapidly becoming an important tool in archaeological research and practice, useful for the analyses of large and multivariate data, although not without limitations. This review highlights the importance of well-defined and well-reported structured methodologies and collaborative practices to maximise the potential of applications of machine learning methods in archaeology.

Matthias Karlbauer, Tobias Menge, Sebastian Otte et al.

Knowledge about the hidden factors that determine particular system dynamics is crucial for both explaining them and pursuing goal-directed interventions. Inferring these factors from time series data without supervision remains an open challenge. Here, we focus on spatiotemporal processes, including wave propagation and weather dynamics, for which we assume that universal causes (e.g. physics) apply throughout space and time. A recently introduced DIstributed SpatioTemporal graph Artificial Neural network Architecture (DISTANA) is used and enhanced to learn such processes, requiring fewer parameters and achieving significantly more accurate predictions compared to temporal convolutional neural networks and other related approaches. We show that DISTANA, when combined with a retrospective latent state inference principle called active tuning, can reliably derive location-respective hidden causal factors. In a current weather prediction benchmark, DISTANA infers our planet's land-sea mask solely by observing temperature dynamics and, meanwhile, uses the self inferred information to improve its own future temperature predictions.

Matthias Karlbauer, Sebastian Otte, Hendrik P. A. Lensch et al.

The novel DISTributed Artificial neural Network Architecture (DISTANA) is a generative, recurrent graph convolution neural network. It implements a grid or mesh of locally parameterizable laterally connected network modules. DISTANA is specifically designed to identify the causality behind spatially distributed, non-linear dynamical processes. We show that DISTANA is very well-suited to denoise data streams, given that re-occurring patterns are observed, significantly outperforming alternative approaches, such as temporal convolution networks and ConvLSTMs, on a complex spatial wave propagation benchmark. It produces stable and accurate closed-loop predictions even over hundreds of time steps. Moreover, it is able to effectively filter noise -- an ability that can be improved further by applying denoising autoencoder principles or by actively tuning latent neural state activities retrospectively. Results confirm that DISTANA is ready to model real-world spatio-temporal dynamics such as brain imaging, supply networks, water flow, or soil and weather data patterns.

Matthias Karlbauer, Sebastian Otte, Hendrik P. A. Lensch et al.

We introduce a distributed spatio-temporal artificial neural network architecture (DISTANA). It encodes mesh nodes using recurrent, neural prediction kernels (PKs), while neural transition kernels (TKs) transfer information between neighboring PKs, together modeling and predicting spatio-temporal time series dynamics. As a consequence, DISTANA assumes that generally applicable causes, which may be locally modified, generate the observed data. DISTANA learns in a parallel, spatially distributed manner, scales to large problem spaces, is capable of approximating complex dynamics, and is particularly robust to overfitting when compared to other competitive ANN models. Moreover, it is applicable to heterogeneously structured meshes.