Aryan Bhambu

Aryan Bhambu, Arabin Kumar Dey

In this paper we propose a novel procedure to construct a confidence interval for multivariate time series predictions using long short term memory network. The construction uses a few novel block bootstrap techniques. We also propose an innovative block length selection procedure for each of these schemes. Two novel benchmarks help us to compare the construction of this confidence intervals by different bootstrap techniques. We illustrate the whole construction through S\&P $500$ and Dow Jones Index datasets.

Arishi Orra, Aryan Bhambu, Himanshu Choudhary et al.

Portfolio optimization requires dynamic allocation of funds by balancing the risk and return tradeoff under dynamic market conditions. With the recent advancements in AI, Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) has gained prominence in providing adaptive and scalable strategies for portfolio optimization. However, the success of these strategies depends not only on their ability to adapt to market dynamics but also on the careful pre-selection of assets that influence overall portfolio performance. Incorporating the investor's preference in pre-selecting assets for a portfolio is essential in refining their investment strategies. This study proposes a volatility-guided DRL-based portfolio optimization framework that dynamically constructs portfolios based on investors' risk profiles. The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model is utilized for volatility forecasting of stocks and categorizes them based on their volatility as aggressive, moderate, and conservative. The DRL agent is then employed to learn an optimal investment policy by interacting with the historical market data. The efficacy of the proposed methodology is established using stocks from the Dow $30$ index. The proposed investor-specific DRL-based portfolios outperformed the baseline strategies by generating consistent risk-adjusted returns.

Aryan Bhambu, Arabin Kumar Dey

This research paper introduces innovative approaches for multivariate time series forecasting based on different variations of the combined regression strategy. We use specific data preprocessing techniques which makes a radical change in the behaviour of prediction. We compare the performance of the model based on two types of hyper-parameter tuning Bayesian optimisation (BO) and Usual Grid search. Our proposed methodologies outperform all state-of-the-art comparative models. We illustrate the methodologies through eight time series datasets from three categories: cryptocurrency, stock index, and short-term load forecasting.