Zhenyuan Ma

Jia Liu, Cheng Jinguo, Xia Fang et al.

Time series foundation models excel at diverse time series forecasting tasks, but their capacity for continuous improvement through incremental learning remains unexplored. We present the first comprehensive study investigating these models' temporal plasticity - their ability to progressively enhance performance through continual learning while maintaining existing capabilities. Through experiments on real-world datasets exhibiting distribution shifts, we evaluate both conventional deep learning models and foundation models using a novel continual learning framework. Our findings reveal that while traditional models struggle with performance deterioration during incremental fine-tuning, foundation models like Time-MoE and Chronos demonstrate sustained improvement in predictive accuracy. This suggests that optimizing foundation model fine-tuning strategies may be more valuable than developing domain-specific small models. Our research introduces new evaluation methodologies and insights for developing foundation time series models with robust continuous learning capabilities.

Ancheng Lin, Jun Li, Zhenyuan Ma

In this work, we investigate the following: 1) how the routing affects the CapsNet model fitting; 2) how the representation using capsules helps discover global structures in data distribution, and; 3) how the learned data representation adapts and generalizes to new tasks. Our investigation yielded the results some of which have been mentioned in the original paper of CapsNet, they are: 1) the routing operation determines the certainty with which a layer of capsules pass information to the layer above and the appropriate level of certainty is related to the model fitness; 2) in a designed experiment using data with a known 2D structure, capsule representations enable a more meaningful 2D manifold embedding than neurons do in a standard convolutional neural network (CNN), and; 3) compared with neurons of the standard CNN, capsules of successive layers are less coupled and more adaptive to new data distribution.