Kairui Feng

Kairui Feng, Dazhi Xi, Wei Ma et al.

The advents of Artificial Intelligence (AI)-driven models marks a paradigm shift in risk management strategies for meteorological hazards. This study specifically employs tropical cyclones (TCs) as a focal example. We engineer a perturbation-based method to produce ensemble forecasts using the advanced Pangu AI weather model. Unlike traditional approaches that often generate fewer than 20 scenarios from Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations for one event, our method facilitates the rapid nature of AI-driven model to create thousands of scenarios. We offer open-source access to our model and evaluate its effectiveness through retrospective case studies of significant TC events: Hurricane Irma (2017), Typhoon Mangkhut (2018), and TC Debbie (2017), affecting regions across North America, East Asia, and Australia. Our findings indicate that the AI-generated ensemble forecasts align closely with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble predictions up to seven days prior to landfall. This approach could substantially enhance the effectiveness of weather forecast-driven risk analysis and management, providing unprecedented operational speed, user-friendliness, and global applicability.

Lyuyi Zhu, Kairui Feng, Ziyuan Pu et al.

Real-time traffic prediction models play a pivotal role in smart mobility systems and have been widely used in route guidance, emerging mobility services, and advanced traffic management systems. With the availability of massive traffic data, neural network-based deep learning methods, especially the graph convolutional networks (GCN) have demonstrated outstanding performance in mining spatio-temporal information and achieving high prediction accuracy. Recent studies reveal the vulnerability of GCN under adversarial attacks, while there is a lack of studies to understand the vulnerability issues of the GCN-based traffic prediction models. Given this, this paper proposes a new task -- diffusion attack, to study the robustness of GCN-based traffic prediction models. The diffusion attack aims to select and attack a small set of nodes to degrade the performance of the entire prediction model. To conduct the diffusion attack, we propose a novel attack algorithm, which consists of two major components: 1) approximating the gradient of the black-box prediction model with Simultaneous Perturbation Stochastic Approximation (SPSA); 2) adapting the knapsack greedy algorithm to select the attack nodes. The proposed algorithm is examined with three GCN-based traffic prediction models: St-Gcn, T-Gcn, and A3t-Gcn on two cities. The proposed algorithm demonstrates high efficiency in the adversarial attack tasks under various scenarios, and it can still generate adversarial samples under the drop regularization such as DropOut, DropNode, and DropEdge. The research outcomes could help to improve the robustness of the GCN-based traffic prediction models and better protect the smart mobility systems. Our code is available at https://github.com/LYZ98/Adversarial-Diffusion-Attacks-on-Graph-based-Traffic-Prediction-Models

Xuanhong Chen, Kairui Feng, Naiyuan Liu et al.

AI-for-science approaches have been applied to solve scientific problems (e.g., nuclear fusion, ecology, genomics, meteorology) and have achieved highly promising results. Spatial precipitation downscaling is one of the most important meteorological problem and urgently requires the participation of AI. However, the lack of a well-organized and annotated large-scale dataset hinders the training and verification of more effective and advancing deep-learning models for precipitation downscaling. To alleviate these obstacles, we present the first large-scale spatial precipitation downscaling dataset named RainNet, which contains more than $62,400$ pairs of high-quality low/high-resolution precipitation maps for over $17$ years, ready to help the evolution of deep learning models in precipitation downscaling. Specifically, the precipitation maps carefully collected in RainNet cover various meteorological phenomena (e.g., hurricane, squall), which is of great help to improve the model generalization ability. In addition, the map pairs in RainNet are organized in the form of image sequences ($720$ maps per month or 1 map/hour), showing complex physical properties, e.g., temporal misalignment, temporal sparse, and fluid properties. Furthermore, two deep-learning-oriented metrics are specifically introduced to evaluate or verify the comprehensive performance of the trained model (e.g., prediction maps reconstruction accuracy). To illustrate the applications of RainNet, 14 state-of-the-art models, including deep models and traditional approaches, are evaluated. To fully explore potential downscaling solutions, we propose an implicit physical estimation benchmark framework to learn the above characteristics. Extensive experiments demonstrate the value of RainNet in training and evaluating downscaling models. Our dataset is available at https://neuralchen.github.io/RainNet/.