Bijan Mazaheri

Spencer L. Gordon, Erik Jahn, Bijan Mazaheri et al.

We consider the problem of identifying, from statistics, a distribution of discrete random variables $X_1,\ldots,X_n$ that is a mixture of $k$ product distributions. The best previous sample complexity for $n \in O(k)$ was $(1/ζ)^{O(k^2 \log k)}$ (under a mild separation assumption parameterized by $ζ$). The best known lower bound was $\exp(Ω(k))$. It is known that $n\geq 2k-1$ is necessary and sufficient for identification. We show, for any $n\geq 2k-1$, how to achieve sample complexity and run-time complexity $(1/ζ)^{O(k)}$. We also extend the known lower bound of $e^{Ω(k)}$ to match our upper bound across a broad range of $ζ$. Our results are obtained by combining (a) a classic method for robust tensor decomposition, (b) a novel way of bounding the condition number of key matrices called Hadamard extensions, by studying their action only on flattened rank-1 tensors.

Bijan Mazaheri, Spencer Gordon, Yuval Rabani et al.

An acyclic causal structure can be described with directed acyclic graph (DAG), where arrows indicate the possibility of direct causation. The task of learning this structure from data is known as "causal discovery." Diverse populations or changing environments can sometimes give rise to data that is heterogeneous in the following sense: each population/environment is a "source" which idiosyncratically determines the forms of those direct causal effects. From this perspective, the source is a latent common cause for every observed variable. While some methods for causal discovery are able to work around latent confounding in special cases, especially when only few observables are confounded, a global confounder is a difficult challenge. The only known ways to deal with latent global confounding involve assumptions that limit the structural equations and/or noise functions. We demonstrate that globally confounded causal structures can still be identifiable with arbitrary structural equations and noise functions, so long as the number of latent classes remains small relative to the size and sparsity of the underlying DAG.

Bijan Mazaheri, Siddharth Jain, Matthew Cook et al.

We explore "omitted label contexts," in which training data is limited to a subset of the possible labels. This setting is standard among specialized human experts or specific, focused studies. By studying Simpson's paradox, we observe that ``correct'' adjustments sometimes require non-exchangeable treatment and control groups. A generalization of Simpson's paradox leads us to study networks of conclusions drawn from different contexts, within which a paradox of nontransitivity arises. We prove that the space of possible nontransitive structures in these networks exactly corresponds to structures that form from aggregating ranked-choice votes.

Mateusz Gajewski, Sophia Xiao, Bijan Mazaheri

Data augmentation integrates domain knowledge into a dataset by making domain-informed modifications to existing data points. For example, image data can be augmented by duplicating images in different tints or orientations, thereby incorporating the knowledge that images may vary in these dimensions. Recent work by Teshima and Sugiyama has explored the integration of causal knowledge (e.g, A causes B causes C) up to conditional independence equivalence. We suggest a related approach for settings with additive noise that can incorporate information beyond a Markov equivalence class. The approach, built on the principle of independent mechanisms, permutes the residuals of models built on marginal probability distributions. Predictive models built on our augmented data demonstrate improved accuracy, for which we provide theoretical backing in linear Gaussian settings.

Liyuan Xu, Bijan Mazaheri

Previous work on causal inference has primarily focused on averages and conditional averages of treatment effects, with significantly less attention on variability and uncertainty in individual treatment responses. In this paper, we introduce the variance of the treatment effect (VTE) and conditional variance of treatment effect (CVTE) as the natural measure of aleatoric uncertainty inherent in treatment responses, and we demonstrate that these quantities are identifiable from observed data under mild assumptions, even in the presence of unobserved confounders. We further propose nonparametric kernel-based estimators for VTE and CVTE, and our theoretical analysis establishes their convergence. We also test the performance of our method through extensive empirical experiments on both synthetic and semi-simulated datasets, where it demonstrates superior or comparable performance to naive baselines.

Bijan Mazaheri, Jiaqi Zhang, Caroline Uhler

Constraint-based causal discovery algorithms utilize many statistical tests for conditional independence to uncover networks of causal dependencies. These approaches to causal discovery rely on an assumed correspondence between the graphical properties of a causal structure and the conditional independence properties of observed variables, known as the causal Markov condition and faithfulness. Finite data yields an empirical distribution that is "close" to the actual distribution. Across these many possible empirical distributions, the correspondence to the graphical properties can break down for different conditional independencies, and multiple violations can occur at the same time. We study this "meta-dependence" between conditional independence properties using the following geometric intuition: each conditional independence property constrains the space of possible joint distributions to a manifold. The "meta-dependence" between conditional independences is informed by the position of these manifolds relative to the true probability distribution. We provide a simple-to-compute measure of this meta-dependence using information projections and consolidate our findings empirically using both synthetic and real-world data.

Zou Yang, Sophia Xiao, Bijan Mazaheri

Recent work has proposed powerful frameworks, rooted in causal theory, to quantify fairness. Causal inference has primarily emphasized the detection of \emph{average} treatment effects (ATEs), and subsequent notions of fairness have inherited this focus. In this paper, we build on previous concerns about regulation based on averages. In particular, we formulate the "causal masking problem" as a linear program that optimizes an alternative objective, such as maximizing profit or minimizing crime, while retaining a zero ATE (i.e., the ATE between a protected attribute and a decision). By studying the capabilities and limitations of causal masking, we show that optimization under ATE-based regulation may induce significant unequal treatment. We demonstrate that the divergence between true and causally masked fairness is driven by confounding, underscoring the importance of full conditional-independence testing when assessing fairness. Finally, we discuss statistical and information-theoretic limitations that make causally masked solutions very difficult to detect, allowing them to persist for long periods. These results argue that we must regulate fairness at the model-level, rather than at the decision level.

Bijan Mazaheri, Atalanti Mastakouri, Dominik Janzing et al.

Statistical prediction models are often trained on data from different probability distributions than their eventual use cases. One approach to proactively prepare for these shifts harnesses the intuition that causal mechanisms should remain invariant between environments. Here we focus on a challenging setting in which the causal and anticausal variables of the target are unobserved. Leaning on information theory, we develop feature selection and engineering techniques for the observed downstream variables that act as proxies. We identify proxies that help to build stable models and moreover utilize auxiliary training tasks to answer counterfactual questions that extract stability-enhancing information from proxies. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our techniques on synthetic and real data.

Spencer L. Gordon, Bijan Mazaheri, Yuval Rabani et al.

A Bayesian Network is a directed acyclic graph (DAG) on a set of $n$ random variables (the vertices); a Bayesian Network Distribution (BND) is a probability distribution on the random variables that is Markovian on the graph. A finite $k$-mixture of such models is graphically represented by a larger graph which has an additional ``hidden'' (or ``latent'') random variable $U$, ranging in $\{1,\ldots,k\}$, and a directed edge from $U$ to every other vertex. Models of this type are fundamental to causal inference, where $U$ models an unobserved confounding effect of multiple populations, obscuring the causal relationships in the observable DAG. By solving the mixture problem and recovering the joint probability distribution with $U$, traditionally unidentifiable causal relationships become identifiable. Using a reduction to the more well-studied ``product'' case on empty graphs, we give the first algorithm to learn mixtures of non-empty DAGs.

Bijan Mazaheri, Siddharth Jain, Jehoshua Bruck

Consider multiple experts with overlapping expertise working on a classification problem under uncertain input. What constitutes a consistent set of opinions? How can we predict the opinions of experts on missing sub-domains? In this paper, we define a framework of to analyze this problem, termed "expert graphs." In an expert graph, vertices represent classes and edges represent binary opinions on the topics of their vertices. We derive necessary conditions for expert graph validity and use them to create "synthetic experts" which describe opinions consistent with the observed opinions of other experts. We show this framework to be equivalent to the well-studied linear ordering polytope. We show our conditions are not sufficient for describing all expert graphs on cliques, but are sufficient for cycles.

Spencer L. Gordon, Bijan Mazaheri, Yuval Rabani et al.

We give an algorithm for source identification of a mixture of $k$ product distributions on $n$ bits. This is a fundamental problem in machine learning with many applications. Our algorithm identifies the source parameters of an identifiable mixture, given, as input, approximate values of multilinear moments (derived, for instance, from a sufficiently large sample), using $2^{O(k^2)} n^{O(k)}$ arithmetic operations. Our result is the first explicit bound on the computational complexity of source identification of such mixtures. The running time improves previous results by Feldman, O'Donnell, and Servedio (FOCS 2005) and Chen and Moitra (STOC 2019) that guaranteed only learning the mixture (without parametric identification of the source). Our analysis gives a quantitative version of a qualitative characterization of identifiable sources that is due to Tahmasebi, Motahari, and Maddah-Ali (ISIT 2018).

Bijan Mazaheri, Siddharth Jain, Jehoshua Bruck

Varying domains and biased datasets can lead to differences between the training and the target distributions, known as covariate shift. Current approaches for alleviating this often rely on estimating the ratio of training and target probability density functions. These techniques require parameter tuning and can be unstable across different datasets. We present a new method for handling covariate shift using the empirical cumulative distribution function estimates of the target distribution by a rigorous generalization of a recent idea proposed by Vapnik and Izmailov. Further, we show experimentally that our method is more robust in its predictions, is not reliant on parameter tuning and shows similar classification performance compared to the current state-of-the-art techniques on synthetic and real datasets.

Spencer Gordon, Bijan Mazaheri, Leonard J. Schulman et al.

We consider the problem of identifying, from its first $m$ noisy moments, a probability distribution on $[0,1]$ of support $k<\infty$. This is equivalent to the problem of learning a distribution on $m$ observable binary random variables $X_1,X_2,\dots,X_m$ that are iid conditional on a hidden random variable $U$ taking values in $\{1,2,\dots,k\}$. Our focus is on accomplishing this with $m=2k$, which is the minimum $m$ for which verifying that the source is a $k$-mixture is possible (even with exact statistics). This problem, so simply stated, is quite useful: e.g., by a known reduction, any algorithm for it lifts to an algorithm for learning pure topic models. We give an algorithm for identifying a $k$-mixture using samples of $m=2k$ iid binary random variables using a sample of size $\left(1/w_{\min}\right)^2 \cdot\left(1/ζ\right)^{O(k)}$ and post-sampling runtime of only $O(k^{2+o(1)})$ arithmetic operations. Here $w_{\min}$ is the minimum probability of an outcome of $U$, and $ζ$ is the minimum separation between the distinct success probabilities of the $X_i$s. Stated in terms of the moment problem, it suffices to know the moments to additive accuracy $w_{\min}\cdotζ^{O(k)}$. It is known that the sample complexity of any solution to the identification problem must be at least exponential in $k$. Previous results demonstrated either worse sample complexity and worse $O(k^c)$ runtime for some $c$ substantially larger than $2$, or similar sample complexity and much worse $k^{O(k^2)}$ runtime.